Grifols S.A. (GRF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Grifols S.A. stock €12.99, price €11.38, upside +14.1%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.78 – €21.97 · fair‑value band €6.53 – €19.42 · the €11.38 price screens below the €12.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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Grifols, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the research, development, production, and marketing of plasma-derived medicines in the United States, Canada, Spain, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Biopharma, Diagnostic, Bio Supplies, and Others.
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The company offers various hemoderivatives from human plasma for immunology, infectious diseases, hepatology, intensive care, pulmonology, hematology, and neurology treatment areas; and markets diagnostic testing equipment, reagents, and other equipment, as well as provides transfusion medicine, clinical diagnostics, and testing services.
It also offers biological products, including albumin, albumin-derived products, immunoglobulins, thrombin, other proteins, and intermediate plasma products to pharma and biotech companies for biopharma use; and whole blood, blood components, processed plasma, and clinical samples to life-science research and in-vitro diagnostic companies for diagnostic use.
In addition, the company provides healthcare solutions for hospitals, such as intravenous solutions to maintain or restore fluids and electrolyte balance in patients; high-tech solutions to automate hospital processes; clinical nutrition to deliver nutrition and medication; and medical devices comprising instrumentation and disposable materials for various hospital services, which include interventional neuroradiology, hemodynamics, urology, anesthesiology and cardiovascular surgery, as well as manufacturing services to third parties and research activities.
Further, it is involved in engineering services; packaging, labelling, storage, distribution, manufacturing, and development of pharmaceutical products; import, export, and commercialization activities; travel agency services; reinsurance of insurance policies; support services; law business; and consultation, administration, and financing services.
The company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Barcelona, Spain.
Stock analysis
Grifols S.A. (GRF) currently trades at €11.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.99, implying the stock looks roughly 12% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €16.41 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the €11.38 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €2.41, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €6.53 (bear) to €19.42 (bull), the price of €11.38 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Grifols S.A. reported revenue of €7.5B in FY2025 versus €4.9B in FY2021, a compound +11.1%/yr. Reported net income was €402M in FY2025, compounding +10.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €7.7B Mid · P/E ratio 15.8 · P/S ratio 1.02 · EPS (TTM) €0.7100 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at 14%, GRF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€6.53Fair Value €12.99Bull€19.42
Price €11.38 · Upside +14.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.6108 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−8.3% vs −2.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.2% a year for the price and +2.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Limited evidence leaves business quality near neutral, with rising demand for plasma-derived therapies supporting cash flow as the main strength and absent pricing power data as the key weakness.
Main risk: Health Canada has repeatedly found deficiencies in donor screening, staff training and procedures at Grifols sites and has suspended licenses or imposed conditions, which could reduce plasma collections in Canada and raise compliance costs.
Bull case: Grifols could strengthen its Canadian operations through improved compliance and expand lower-cost plasma sourcing in new markets such as Egypt while using the US IPO proceeds to cut debt and invest in higher-yield fractionation.
Bear case: Persistent Canadian regulatory restrictions could limit plasma supply growth, while high debt service costs and advancing recombinant substitutes from rivals could together squeeze margins and slow the shift to a leaner regional model.
Grifols runs plasma collection and fractionation in a concentrated US market while some Canadian sites operate under tighter regulatory watch after recent pauses. Rising demand for its plasma-derived therapies supports better free cash flow that can cut debt, yet the planned minority IPO of the US business offers a route to re-rate the operations at peer multiples. Will steady operational cash generation prove enough to restore balance sheet strength or does separating the US assets become the faster path?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 72 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Below median
Fair Value upside+14.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.3% · Below median
Return on assets2.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)6.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)21.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B1.47× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grifols S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRF
Frequently asked questions
Is Grifols S.A. (GRF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.99 versus a price of €11.38, about +14% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GRF?
Our model-based fair value for Grifols S.A. is €12.99 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €11.38.
What is the quality score of GRF?
Grifols S.A. has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.99 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.53, optimistic scenario €19.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grifols S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €12.99, about +14% upside versus a price of €11.38 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €6.53, optimistic scenario €19.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
Grifols S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €7.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
Does Grifols S.A. pay a dividend?
Grifols S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.67% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 10, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
Grifols S.A. has a dividend yield of 1.7%.
What growth is priced into Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grifols S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +17.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.1 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRF use?
Our models discount Grifols S.A. at 11.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.13, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grifols S.A. that is +17.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grifols S.A. (GRF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grifols S.A. grew +7.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +17.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grifols S.A. (GRF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grifols S.A. (+17.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.06 %: that much free cash flow Grifols S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grifols S.A. it is €12.99 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of €11.38. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Grifols S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, GRF trades below its calculated fair value: price €11.38, fair value €12.99, a gap of about +14% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€11.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.99). For Grifols S.A. the two are €1.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grifols S.A. worth?
The market values Grifols S.A. at about €7.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is €11.38; our models calculate a fair value of €12.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRF?
Our models span a range for Grifols S.A.: cautious scenario €6.53, base €12.99, optimistic €19.42 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price €11.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GRF?
Grifols S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.8 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €12.99 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 26.4. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.5, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.6.
What is the PEG ratio of GRF?
The PEG ratio of Grifols S.A. is 0.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grifols S.A. (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 1.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRF from its 52-week high?
Grifols S.A. trades at €11.38, about 2% below its 52-week high of €11.59 and 32% above the low of €8.60 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grifols S.A.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grifols S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price €11.38, calculated fair value €12.99 (+14%), Quality Score 56/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRF calculated?
We run Grifols S.A. through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €12.99 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Grifols S.A. currently trades 12% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was €11.38. Our model-based fair value is €12.99, about +14% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grifols S.A. right now?
The model range is unusually wide (€6.53 to €19.42). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Grifols S.A. (GRF) come from?
Earnings per share at Grifols S.A. grew −9.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.3 %, EBIT margin −5.3 %, tax rate −2.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −8.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Grifols S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
The market capitalisation of Grifols S.A. is €7.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grifols S.A. is 1.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
Earnings per share at Grifols S.A. are €0.7100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
The dividend yield of Grifols S.A. is 1.7% (payout 26.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
The net margin of Grifols S.A. is 6.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grifols S.A. is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grifols S.A. is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
The operating margin of Grifols S.A. is 21.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
Revenue at Grifols S.A. is growing +9.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grifols S.A. (GRF)?
Earnings per share at Grifols S.A. are growing +32.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grifols S.A. (GRF) carry?
The net debt of Grifols S.A. is €7.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 10, 2026