Grodno S.A. (GRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Grodno S.A. PLN 11.48, price PLN 14.55, upside -21.1%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 8.36 PLN – 19.37 PLN · fair‑value band 8.48 PLN – 14.93 PLN · the 14.55 PLN price screens above the 11.48 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Grodno Spólka Akcyjna distributes electrical and lighting products in Poland. The company provides services in the field of lighting audits and projects, and electrical and lighting projects; construction and modernization of electrical and energy installations; programming of building automation; and supplies complex solutions for industry.
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Grodno Spólka Akcyjna distributes electrical and lighting products in Poland. The company provides services in the field of lighting audits and projects, and electrical and lighting projects; construction and modernization of electrical and energy installations; programming of building automation; and supplies complex solutions for industry. It also offers photovoltaic system, industrial electric systems, heat pumps, and electric vehicle charging stations, electrical installation accessories; comprehensive PV, HVAC, and HEPAC for renewable energy; professional lighting; solutions for industry; air conditioning and recuperation; plumbing; and cables and wires, as well as alarms, security systems and tools. In addition, the company sells its products through a network of distributors and e-commerce platform. Further, it exports its products. Grodno Spólka Akcyjna was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Nieporet, Poland.
Stock analysis
Grodno S.A. (GRN) currently trades at 14.55 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 11.48 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 26.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 27.98 PLN per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the 14.55 PLN price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 5.56 PLN, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 8.48 PLN (bear) to 14.93 PLN (bull), the price of 14.55 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Grodno S.A. reported revenue of 1.2B PLN in FY2023 versus 624M PLN in FY2019, a compound +17.4%/yr. Reported net income was 6.2M PLN in FY2023, compounding −14.4%/yr from FY2019.
Key figures
Market cap 251M PLN (≈ $65.2M) · P/E ratio 50.2 · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) 0.2900 PLN · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −21%, GRN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 8.48 PLNFair Value 11.48 PLNBull 14.93 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−0.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6% vs 3%, slowing
Profit margin 2018 to 2023 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 1%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronics & Computer Distribution · 154 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside−22% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronics & Computer Distribution median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grodno S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRN
Frequently asked questions
Is Grodno S.A. (GRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 11.48 PLN versus a price of 14.55 PLN, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GRN?
Our model-based fair value for Grodno S.A. is 11.48 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 14.55 PLN.
What is the quality score of GRN?
Grodno S.A. has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 11.48 PLN (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8.48 PLN, optimistic scenario 14.93 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grodno S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 11.48 PLN, about −21% upside versus a price of 14.55 PLN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 8.48 PLN, optimistic scenario 14.93 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
Grodno S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Grodno S.A. pay a dividend?
Grodno S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grodno S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +0.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRN use?
Our models discount Grodno S.A. at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grodno S.A. that is +0.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grodno S.A. (GRN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grodno S.A. grew +19.4 % a year. The price currently implies +0.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grodno S.A. (GRN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grodno S.A. (+0.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.53 %: that much free cash flow Grodno S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grodno S.A. it is 11.48 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 14.55 PLN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grodno S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, GRN trades above its calculated fair value: price 14.55 PLN, fair value 11.48 PLN, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (14.55 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (11.48 PLN). For Grodno S.A. the two are 3.07 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grodno S.A. worth?
The market values Grodno S.A. at about 251M PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 14.55 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 11.48 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRN?
Our models span a range for Grodno S.A.: cautious scenario 8.48 PLN, base 11.48 PLN, optimistic 14.93 PLN per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 14.55 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GRN?
Grodno S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 11.48 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.1, EV/EBITDA 3.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grodno S.A. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRN from its 52-week high?
Grodno S.A. trades at 14.55 PLN, about 22% below its 52-week high of 18.70 PLN and 50% above the low of 9.70 PLN (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 11.48 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grodno S.A.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value TD SYNNEX Corporation, Unisplendour Corporation, Rexel S.A, Arrow Electronics, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grodno S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 14.55 PLN, calculated fair value 11.48 PLN (−21%), Quality Score 47/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRN calculated?
We run Grodno S.A. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 11.48 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Grodno S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 14.55 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 11.48 PLN, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grodno S.A. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Grodno S.A. (GRN) come from?
Earnings per share at Grodno S.A. grew +22.2 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.8 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Grodno S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
The market capitalisation of Grodno S.A. is 251M PLN (≈ $65.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grodno S.A. is 0.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
Earnings per share at Grodno S.A. are 0.2900 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
The dividend yield of Grodno S.A. is 5.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
The net margin of Grodno S.A. is 0.5% (fiscal year 2023). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grodno S.A. is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grodno S.A. is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
The operating margin of Grodno S.A. is 3.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
Revenue at Grodno S.A. is growing +1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grodno S.A. (GRN)?
Earnings per share at Grodno S.A. are growing +113% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grodno S.A. (GRN) carry?
The net debt of Grodno S.A. is 86.5M PLN (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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