Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. MXN 574, price MXN 235, upside +144.7%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 178.02 MXN – 384.24 MXN · fair‑value band 306.71 MXN – 898.42 MXN · the 234.80 MXN price screens below the 574.47 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Follow Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company in Mexico, the United States, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Central America. The company operates through Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (United States); Corn Flour Division (Mexico); Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (Europe); and Other segments.
Show more
Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company in Mexico, the United States, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Central America. The company operates through Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (United States); Corn Flour Division (Mexico); Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (Europe); and Other segments. It engages in the manufacturing and distribution of corn flours. The company also offers grits snacks and cereals, polenta, and prepared flour; corn and wheat tortillas; tortilla chips, taco shells, and toasted tortillas; wraps, such as pita bread, naan, pizza doughs, and other flatbreads; and sauces and dips, including palmito, snacks, marinades, and pasta. In addition, it provides rice and oats; hearts of palm, and packaged tortillas and snacks; and balanced feed for livestock. Further, the company is involved in research and development of nixtamalized corn flour and tortilla manufacturing equipment; production of machinery for nixtamalized corn flour and tortilla; and construction of nixtamalized corn flour manufacturing facilities. It sells its products under the Maseca, Mission, Guerrero, Tosty, TortiRicas, Rumba, La Cima, Masa Rica, Del Fogón, Arroz Luisiana, Delicados, and Rodotec, as well as Tortimasa, Juana, Mimasa, Bravos, Papiola, Tronaditas, Missiondeli, and Mexifoods brands. The company distributes its products through independent distributors and wholesalers, supermarket chains, retailers, restaurants, cafeterias, hotels, and fast-food chains. Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.
Stock analysis
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB) currently trades at 234.80 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 574.47 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 59.1% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 1,281 MXN per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the 234.80 MXN price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 80.68 MXN, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 306.71 MXN (bear) to 898.42 MXN (bull), the price of 234.80 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. reported revenue of $6.4B in FY2025 versus $4.6B in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was $519M in FY2025, compounding +14.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 80.9B MXN (≈ $4.4B) · P/E ratio 9.6 · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) 24.40 MXN · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 8.1% · Return on equity 22.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 16.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at 145%, GRUMAB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 306.71 MXNFair Value 574.47 MXNBull 898.42 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (14.26 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.6% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+20.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.7% vs 8.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.1% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (19 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 641 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+144.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GRUMAB
Frequently asked questions
Is Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 574.47 MXN versus a price of 234.80 MXN, about +145% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GRUMAB?
Our model-based fair value for Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is 574.47 MXN (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 234.80 MXN.
What is the quality score of GRUMAB?
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 574.47 MXN (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 306.71 MXN, optimistic scenario 898.42 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 574.47 MXN, about +145% upside versus a price of 234.80 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 306.71 MXN, optimistic scenario 898.42 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
Does Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. pay a dividend?
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.30% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. would have to grow free cash flow by +1.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.8 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRUMAB use?
Our models discount Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. that is +1.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. grew +6.8 % a year. The price currently implies +1.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (+1.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.69 %: that much free cash flow Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. it is 574.47 MXN per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 234.80 MXN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, GRUMAB trades below its calculated fair value: price 234.80 MXN, fair value 574.47 MXN, a gap of about +145% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRUMAB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (234.80 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (574.47 MXN). For Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. the two are 339.67 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. worth?
The market values Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. at about 80.9B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 234.80 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 574.47 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRUMAB?
Our models span a range for Gruma S.A.B. de C.V.: cautious scenario 306.71 MXN, base 574.47 MXN, optimistic 898.42 MXN per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 234.80 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GRUMAB?
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 574.47 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 2.0, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.4.
What is the PEG ratio of GRUMAB?
The PEG ratio of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is 1.08 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 22.1%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRUMAB from its 52-week high?
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. trades at 234.80 MXN, about 32% below its 52-week high of 344.98 MXN and 3% above the low of 228.11 MXN (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 574.47 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gruma S.A.B. de C.V.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 234.80 MXN, calculated fair value 574.47 MXN (+145%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRUMAB calculated?
We run Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 574.47 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. currently trades 59 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was 234.80 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 574.47 MXN, about +145% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (306.71 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (306.71 MXN to 898.42 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB) come from?
Earnings per share at Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. grew +8.8 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin +3.6 %, tax rate −2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V.
How large is the market capitalisation of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
The market capitalisation of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is 80.9B MXN (≈ $4.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is 0.78 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
Earnings per share at Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. are 24.40 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
The dividend yield of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is 2.3% (payout 22.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
The net margin of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is 8.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is 22.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is 16.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
The operating margin of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
Revenue at Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
Earnings per share at Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. are growing −7.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB) carry?
The net debt of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is $1.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. in the live analysis
One click puts Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 27, 2026