Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.
Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes
A solid business, trading 56% below our fair value of 544.92 MXN.
As of Aug 20, 2026, the fair value of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is 544.92 MXN per share against a price of 237.95 MXN, so the fair value sits 129% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.8 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.7% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·2.27% dividend yield
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)
!Moderate moat 62/100
!The models disagree: range 376.76 MXN to 1,238 MXN
!Weak on future: 25 out of 100
Evidence: HighRange 376.76 MXN to 1,238 MXN
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from 31.96 MXN to 544.92 MXN (+1,605.0%) since Aug 13, 2026.
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What matters now
The price is below even our cautious bear case (376.76 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
The model range is unusually wide (376.76 MXN to 1,238 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 178.02 MXN – 384.24 MXN · fair‑value band 376.76 MXN – 1,238 MXN · the 237.95 MXN price screens below the 544.92 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB) currently trades at 237.95 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 544.92 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 56.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. generated revenue of 6.5B MXN at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.6%. Net debt stands at 1.0B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Scenario range: 376.76 MXN (bear) to 1,238 MXN (bull), the price of 237.95 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at 129%, GRUMAB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (13.38 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.
Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →
Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (4.39 MXN to 72.16 MXN). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
ModelBear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence
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Key figures & financial health
P/E ratio9.6
P/S ratio0.78P/E × margin
EPS (TTM)24.91 MXNprice ÷ EPS = P/E 9.6
Dividend yield2.3%payout 21.7%
Net margin8.1%FY2025
Return on equity22.6%TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT)16.3%avg 5y
Operating margin11.6%TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM)6.5B MXNTTM
Revenue growth (YoY)+4.9%3y avg +4.4%
EPS growth (YoY)−17.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow562M MXNFY2025
Net debt1.0B MXNFY2025 · ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality67/100
Of which business quality 67
· Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Profitability75
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth35
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum3
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance100
Buybacks instead of dilution
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company in Mexico, the United States, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Central America. The company operates through Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (United States); Corn Flour Division (Mexico); Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (Europe); and Other segments.
Full company description
Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a food company in Mexico, the United States, Europe, Asia, Oceania, and Central America. The company operates through Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (United States); Corn Flour Division (Mexico); Corn Flour and Packaged Tortilla Division (Europe); and Other segments. It engages in the manufacturing and distribution of corn flours. The company also offers grits snacks and cereals, polenta, and prepared flour; corn and wheat tortillas; tortilla chips, taco shells, and toasted tortillas; wraps, such as pita bread, naan, pizza doughs, and other flatbreads; and sauces and dips, including palmito, snacks, marinades, and pasta. In addition, it provides rice and oats; hearts of palm, and packaged tortillas and snacks; and balanced feed for livestock. Further, the company is involved in research and development of nixtamalized corn flour and tortilla manufacturing equipment; production of machinery for nixtamalized corn flour and tortilla; and construction of nixtamalized corn flour manufacturing facilities. It sells its products under the Maseca, Mission, Guerrero, Tosty, TortiRicas, Rumba, La Cima, Masa Rica, Del Fogón, Arroz Luisiana, Delicados, and Rodotec, as well as Tortimasa, Juana, Mimasa, Bravos, Papiola, Tronaditas, Missiondeli, and Mexifoods brands. The company distributes its products through independent distributors and wholesalers, supermarket chains, retailers, restaurants, cafeterias, hotels, and fast-food chains. Gruma, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. reported revenue of $6.4B in FY2025 versus $4.6B in FY2021, a compound +8.5%/yr. Reported net income was $519M in FY2025, compounding +14.5%/yr from FY2021.
Growth Quality 64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
6.4B MXN
Latest YoY
−1.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+20.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+17.7%
Dividend yield2.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 17.7% vs 10Y 8.6%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12.5% (2020) → 13.6% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop100% (2008) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in MXN
Revenue+8.5%/yr
FY21$4.6B
FY22$5.6B
FY23$6.6B
FY24$6.5B
FY25$6.4B
Net income+14.5%/yr
FY21$302M
FY22$319M
FY23$429M
FY24$532M
FY25$519M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2012-2023)+8.8 % p.a.
Revenue per share+6.0 %
of which total revenue +3.3 % · buybacks/dilution +2.6 %
EBIT margin+3.6 %
Tax rate−2.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs)+1.3 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+124% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)9.6× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.56× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)0.89× · Pricier than median
P/FCF10.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA6.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.08× · Cheaper than median
What the price implies (reverse DCF)
The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.
Implied FCF growth, 10 years+37.5 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+6.8 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+2.9 %
FCF yield on price0.69 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models10.5 %
The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
This stockSector peers
VALUE100· sector 24
FUTURE25· sector 19
PAST91· sector 29
HEALTH70· sector 97
DIVIDEND45· sector 53
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
Is Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 544.92 MXN versus a price of 237.95 MXN, about +129% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of GRUMAB?
Our model-based fair value for Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is 544.92 MXN (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 237.95 MXN.
What is the quality score of GRUMAB?
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 544.92 MXN (as of Aug 20, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 376.76 MXN, optimistic scenario 1,238 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 544.92 MXN, about +129% upside versus a price of 237.95 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 376.76 MXN, optimistic scenario 1,238 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.5B MXN (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GRUMAB?
The net profit margin of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is about 7.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. pay a dividend?
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.27% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. would have to grow free cash flow by +37.5 % per year for ten years (discount rate 10.5 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.8 % per year. As of Aug 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of GRUMAB use?
Our models discount Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.00, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is the intrinsic value of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. it is 544.92 MXN per share (as of Aug 20, 2026), against a price of 237.95 MXN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 20, 2026, GRUMAB trades below its calculated fair value: price 237.95 MXN, fair value 544.92 MXN, a gap of about +129% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GRUMAB?
No. The price is what the market pays today (237.95 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (544.92 MXN). For Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. the two are 306.97 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. worth?
The market values Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. at about 96.6B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Aug 20, 2026). Per share that is 237.95 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 544.92 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GRUMAB?
Our models span a range for Gruma S.A.B. de C.V.: cautious scenario 376.76 MXN, base 544.92 MXN, optimistic 1,238 MXN per share (as of Aug 20, 2026, price 237.95 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of GRUMAB?
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.6 (as of Aug 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 544.92 MXN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 2.6, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of GRUMAB?
The PEG ratio of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. is 1.08 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Aug 20, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (GRUMAB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. (as of Aug 20, 2026): return on equity 22.6%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is GRUMAB from its 52-week high?
Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. trades at 237.95 MXN, about 32% below its 52-week high of 350.24 MXN (as of Aug 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 544.92 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Gruma S.A.B. de C.V.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Nestlé India Limited, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 20, 2026: price 237.95 MXN, calculated fair value 544.92 MXN (+129%), Quality Score 67/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GRUMAB calculated?
We run Gruma S.A.B. de C.V. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 544.92 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
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