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ESS Tech, Inc (GWH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of ESS Tech, Inc $0.12, price $0.16, upside -23.6%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Industrials · US · ISIN US26916J2050

ET ESS Tech, Inc logo Thin data Sep 27, 2026

ESS Tech, Inc

GWH · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $0.1200 · Overvalued (−23.6%)
!Quality 35/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +21.0 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (2/5)
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 2 out of 100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$357.00 $0.1567 Fair Value $0.1200 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.1567 – $357.00 · fair‑value band $0.0900 – $0.1800 · the $0.1570 price screens above the $0.1200 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

ESS Tech, Inc., an energy storage company, engages in the design and production of iron flow batteries for commercial and utility-scale energy storage applications worldwide.

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ESS Tech, Inc., an energy storage company, engages in the design and production of iron flow batteries for commercial and utility-scale energy storage applications worldwide. It offers energy storage products, which include Energy Warehouse, a behind-the-meter solution; and the gigawatt-hour energy base storage product, a fully configurable layout that integrates with any site location and that allows the power to be decoupled from the capacity. The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Wilsonville, Oregon.

Stock analysis

ESS Tech, Inc (GWH) currently trades at $0.1570, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1200, 23.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.0900 (bear) to $0.1800 (bull), the price of $0.1570 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

ESS Tech, Inc reported revenue of $1.6M in FY2025 versus $686K in FY2021, a compound +23.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$63.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $20.4M · EPS (TTM) $−2.95 · Return on equity −21,340% · Return on assets (EBIT) −75.8% · Operating margin −20,732% · Revenue (TTM) −$1.2M · Revenue growth (YoY) −96.9% · Free cash flow −$53.7M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 98% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −24%, GWH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.0900 Fair Value $0.1200 Bull $0.1800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.1300 $0.1800 $0.2600 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.1300 $0.1800 $0.2600 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 4

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 7
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 15
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 0
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 21/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−74.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8,834.1% (2021) → −3,518.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

GWH screens overvalued: fair value 24% below the price. Compare with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electrical Equipment & Parts · 532 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/4 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −23.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets −95.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −96.9% · Bottom 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)2 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 57
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 23

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Electrical Equipment & Parts stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co 300750 ¥291.11 ¥695.24 +139%
ABB Ltd ABBN CHF 79.62 CHF 30.01 −62%
Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company DELTA 263.00 THB 38.64 THB −85%
Vertiv Holdings VRT $244.04 $178.68 −27%
Prysmian S.p.A PRY €129.80 €75.63 −42%
Legrand SA LR €144.55 €82.77 −43%
nVent Electric plc NVT $164.41 $43.51 −74%
Sungrow Power Supply Co 300274 ¥84.21 ¥185.48 +120%
Hubbell Incorporated HUBB $465.72 $293.28 −37%
LS ELECTRIC Co 010120 205,500 KRW 29,518 KRW −86%

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ESS Tech, Inc · Fair Value
$0.1200 −24%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ESS Tech, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GWH

Frequently asked questions

Is ESS Tech, Inc (GWH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1200 versus a price of $0.1570, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GWH?
Our model-based fair value for ESS Tech, Inc is $0.1200 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1570.
What is the quality score of GWH?
ESS Tech, Inc has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ESS Tech, Inc (GWH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1200 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0900, optimistic scenario $0.1800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ESS Tech, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1200, about −24% upside versus a price of $0.1570 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.0900, optimistic scenario $0.1800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of ESS Tech, Inc (GWH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ESS Tech, Inc it is $0.1200 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of $0.1570. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ESS Tech, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, GWH trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.1570, fair value $0.1200, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of GWH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1570); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1200). For ESS Tech, Inc the two are $0.0370 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ESS Tech, Inc worth?
The market values ESS Tech, Inc at about $20.4M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is $0.1570; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about GWH?
Our models span a range for ESS Tech, Inc: cautious scenario $0.0900, base $0.1200, optimistic $0.1800 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price $0.1570). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is GWH from its 52-week high?
ESS Tech, Inc trades at $0.1570, about 98% below its 52-week high of $9.05 and at the low of $0.1567 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ESS Tech, Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Vertiv Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ESS Tech, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price $0.1570, calculated fair value $0.1200 (−24%), Quality Score 35/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of GWH calculated?
We run ESS Tech, Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ESS Tech, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ESS Tech, Inc (GWH)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.1570. Our model-based fair value is $0.1200, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ESS Tech, Inc right now?
Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($0.0900 to $0.1800) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of ESS Tech, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of ESS Tech, Inc (GWH)?
The market capitalisation of ESS Tech, Inc is $20.4M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of ESS Tech, Inc (GWH)?
Earnings per share at ESS Tech, Inc are $−2.95. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of ESS Tech, Inc (GWH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ESS Tech, Inc is −21,340% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ESS Tech, Inc (GWH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ESS Tech, Inc is −75.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ESS Tech, Inc (GWH)?
The operating margin of ESS Tech, Inc is −20,732% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does ESS Tech, Inc (GWH) generate?
ESS Tech, Inc generates revenue of −$1.2M (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at ESS Tech, Inc (GWH)?
Revenue at ESS Tech, Inc is growing −96.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does ESS Tech, Inc (GWH) generate?
The free cash flow of ESS Tech, Inc is −$53.7M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does ESS Tech, Inc (GWH) hold?
ESS Tech, Inc holds more cash than debt, $2.6M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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