HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of HCL Infosystems Limited stock ₹9.35, price ₹10.09, upside -7.3%, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹9.40 – ₹29.85 · fair‑value band ₹8.68 – ₹10.70 · the ₹10.09 price screens above the ₹9.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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HCL Infosystems Limited provides information technology support services in India. It offers annual maintenance contracts related to enterprise distribution customers; and system integration services. The company was founded in 1976 and is based in Noida, India.
Stock analysis
HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS) currently trades at ₹10.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹9.35, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ₹9.35 per share, and 2 of the 5 models we run sit above the ₹10.09 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at ₹9.19, and 3 of the 5 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: ₹8.68 (bear) to ₹10.70 (bull), the price of ₹10.09 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
HCL Infosystems Limited reported revenue of ₹216M in FY2026 versus ₹694M in FY2022, a compound −25.3%/yr. Reported net income was −₹329M in FY2026.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −7%, HCL-INSYS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear₹8.68Fair Value ₹9.35Bull₹10.70
Price ₹10.09 · Upside -7.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−42.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −41.8% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−50.4% (2021) → −275.6% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (India: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 4.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.6% a year for the price.
Compare HCL Infosystems Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronics & Computer Distribution · 156 stocks
Beats the industry median on 0/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−7.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−7.5% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−152.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−40.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronics & Computer Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)17.70× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow28.9× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)24· sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 72
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 40
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 60
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹9.35 versus a price of ₹10.09, about −7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of HCL-INSYS?
Our model-based fair value for HCL Infosystems Limited is ₹9.35 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹10.09.
What is the quality score of HCL-INSYS?
HCL Infosystems Limited has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹9.35 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹8.68, optimistic scenario ₹10.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HCL Infosystems Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹9.35, about −7% upside versus a price of ₹10.09 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario ₹8.68, optimistic scenario ₹10.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
HCL Infosystems Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹188M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HCL Infosystems Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +27.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -42.8 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HCL-INSYS use?
Our models discount HCL Infosystems Limited at 11.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HCL Infosystems Limited that is +27.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HCL Infosystems Limited grew -42.8 % a year. The price currently implies +27.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HCL Infosystems Limited (+27.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.47 %: that much free cash flow HCL Infosystems Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HCL Infosystems Limited it is ₹9.35 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of ₹10.09. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HCL Infosystems Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, HCL-INSYS trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹10.09, fair value ₹9.35, a gap of about −7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HCL-INSYS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹10.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹9.35). For HCL Infosystems Limited the two are ₹0.7400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HCL Infosystems Limited worth?
The market values HCL Infosystems Limited at about ₹3.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is ₹10.09; our models calculate a fair value of ₹9.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HCL-INSYS?
Our models span a range for HCL Infosystems Limited: cautious scenario ₹8.68, base ₹9.35, optimistic ₹10.70 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price ₹10.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
Balance-sheet figures for HCL Infosystems Limited (as of Oct 3, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HCL-INSYS from its 52-week high?
HCL Infosystems Limited trades at ₹10.09, about 36% below its 52-week high of ₹15.83 and 7% above the low of ₹9.40 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹9.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HCL Infosystems Limited?
From the same area (Technology) we also value TD SYNNEX Corporation, Unisplendour Corporation, Arrow Electronics, Inc, Avnet, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HCL Infosystems Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price ₹10.09, calculated fair value ₹9.35 (−7%), Quality Score 50/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HCL-INSYS calculated?
We run HCL Infosystems Limited through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹9.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. HCL Infosystems Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was ₹10.09. Our model-based fair value is ₹9.35, about −7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HCL Infosystems Limited right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of HCL Infosystems Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
The market capitalisation of HCL Infosystems Limited is ₹3.3B (≈ $35.0M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HCL Infosystems Limited is 17.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
Earnings per share at HCL Infosystems Limited are ₹−1.37. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HCL Infosystems Limited is −8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
The operating margin of HCL Infosystems Limited is −330% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS)?
Revenue at HCL Infosystems Limited is growing −40.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does HCL Infosystems Limited (HCL-INSYS) carry?
The net debt of HCL Infosystems Limited is ₹1.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 12.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026