Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 16.09 MXN – 73.14 MXN · fair‑value band 82.68 MXN – 210.86 MXN · the 50.89 MXN price screens below the 138.43 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V., a food company, provides processed food in Mexico and internationally. It operates through Momentum, Canned Food, and Export segments.
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Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V., a food company, provides processed food in Mexico and internationally. It operates through Momentum, Canned Food, and Export segments. The company offers organic food; pasta; pasta, spicy, ketchup-type, homemade, hot, Worcestershire, soy, teriyaki, cooking, refrigerated, and taco sauces; coffee and coffee capsules; olives; chilies, dips, salsas, seasonings, tortillas, and tortilla chips; prepared drinks; ground tomato; frozen Mexican dishes; moles; canned vegetables; goat and mozzarella cheese; mustard; frozen popsicles and ice cream; tuna, beans, dips, guacamole, and vegetable juice; and enchiladas. It also provides hummus, dry jocoque, and pita bread; salad dressings, spices, mayonnaise, jams, and teas; yogurt; healthy snacks and food supplements; processed avocado; nutrition bars, confectionery, and baking flour; tomato puree; legumes; honey; marmalade; and household packaging, such as aluminum foil, as well as plastic, waxed, and resealable bags. In addition, the company operates a Mexican restaurant. It sells its products under Aires de Campo, Barilla, Blasón, Bu´falo, Carlota, Del Fuerte, Doña María, Embasa, Flaveur, Frank's RedHot, French's, Herdez, Libanius, Liguria, McCormick, Helados Nestle´, Señor Cactus, Yemina, Chi-Chi's, Wholly Guacamole, Betty Crocker, Cinammon Toast Crunch Treats, Fiber One, Häagen-Dazs, Fruit by the Foot, Fruit Gushers, Fruit Roll-ups, Kikkoman, Larabar, Lucky Charms, Pillsbury, Nature Valley, Reynolds, General Mills, Nutrisa, Moyo, Chilim Balam, Cielito Querido Café, Onei, Don Miguel, La Victoria, and Golden Grahams brands. The company exports its products. The company was formerly known as Compañía Comercial herdez S.A. and changed its name to Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V. in 1991. The company was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico. Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V. is a subsidiary of Hechos Con Amor S.A. de C.V.
Stock analysis
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ) currently trades at 50.89 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 138.43 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 63.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 167.76 MXN per share, and 24 of the 26 models we run sit above the 50.89 MXN price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 38.25 MXN, and 2 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 82.68 MXN (bear) to 210.86 MXN (bull), the price of 50.89 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 38.6B MXN in FY2025 versus 26.2B MXN in FY2021, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.8B MXN in FY2025, compounding +25.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 16.4B MXN (≈ $962M) · P/E ratio 9.5 · P/S ratio 0.44 · EPS (TTM) 5.35 MXN · Dividend yield 14.1% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 16.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at 172%, HERDEZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 82.68 MXNFair Value 138.43 MXNBull 210.86 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.77 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+28.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)14.1%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 14%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 647 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)53% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)14.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.66× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HERDEZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 138.43 MXN versus a price of 50.89 MXN, about +172% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HERDEZ?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 138.43 MXN (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 50.89 MXN.
What is the quality score of HERDEZ?
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 138.43 MXN (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 82.68 MXN, optimistic scenario 210.86 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 138.43 MXN, about +172% upside versus a price of 50.89 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 82.68 MXN, optimistic scenario 210.86 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 38.9B MXN (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 14.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by -1.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.9 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HERDEZ use?
Our models discount Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.02, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V that is -1.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V grew +9.9 % a year. The price currently implies -1.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (-1.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.39 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V it is 138.43 MXN per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 50.89 MXN. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, HERDEZ trades below its calculated fair value: price 50.89 MXN, fair value 138.43 MXN, a gap of about +172% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HERDEZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (50.89 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (138.43 MXN). For Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V the two are 87.54 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V at about 16.4B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 50.89 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 138.43 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HERDEZ?
Our models span a range for Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 82.68 MXN, base 138.43 MXN, optimistic 210.86 MXN per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 50.89 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HERDEZ?
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.5 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 138.43 MXN is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 16.5%, debt of 1.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HERDEZ from its 52-week high?
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V trades at 50.89 MXN, about 38% below its 52-week high of 82.22 MXN and 31% above the low of 38.99 MXN (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 138.43 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Nestlé India Limited, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 50.89 MXN, calculated fair value 138.43 MXN (+172%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HERDEZ calculated?
We run Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 138.43 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V currently trades 172 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (82.68 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (68/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (82.68 MXN to 210.86 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 16.4B MXN (≈ $962M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 0.44 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V are 5.35 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The dividend yield of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 14.1% (payout 134%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The net margin of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The operating margin of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Revenue at Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is growing +5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V are growing +43.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 7.4B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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