Grupo Herdez, S.A. (HERDEZ) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · MX · Market cap 17.4B MXN

What matters now

• The price is below even our cautious bear case (87.48 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
• Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
• A fairly wide model range (87.48 MXN to 178.87 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (12 months)

12‑month range 39.00 MXN – 73.14 MXN · fair‑value band 87.48 MXN – 178.87 MXN · the 54.08 MXN price screens below the 116.65 MXN fair value. As of Jul 12, 2026.

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Analysis

Grupo Herdez, S.A. (HERDEZ) currently trades at 54.08 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 116.65 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 115.7% undervalued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo Herdez, S.A. generated revenue of 38.9B MXN at a net margin of 52.5%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.5%. Net debt stands at 7.4B MXN. Fundamentals as of Jul 12, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 87.48 MXN (bear case) to 178.87 MXN (bull case); at 54.08 MXN, the current price sits below that range. The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 116%, HERDEZ screens cheaper than that median.

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V., a food company, provides processed food in Mexico and internationally. It operates through Momentum, Canned Food, and Export segments.

Full company description

Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V., a food company, provides processed food in Mexico and internationally. It operates through Momentum, Canned Food, and Export segments. The company offers organic food; pasta; pasta, spicy, ketchup-type, homemade, hot, Worcestershire, soy, teriyaki, cooking, refrigerated, and taco sauces; coffee and coffee capsules; olives; chilies, dips, salsas, seasonings, tortillas, and tortilla chips; prepared drinks; ground tomato; frozen Mexican dishes; moles; canned vegetables; goat and mozzarella cheese; mustard; frozen popsicles and ice cream; tuna, beans, dips, guacamole, and vegetable juice; and enchiladas. It also provides hummus, dry jocoque, and pita bread; salad dressings, spices, mayonnaise, jams, and teas; yogurt; healthy snacks and food supplements; processed avocado; nutrition bars, confectionery, and baking flour; tomato puree; legumes; honey; marmalade; and household packaging, such as aluminum foil, as well as plastic, waxed, and resealable bags. In addition, the company operates a Mexican restaurant. It sells its products under Aires de Campo, Barilla, Blasón, Bu´falo, Carlota, Del Fuerte, Doña María, Embasa, Flaveur, Frank's RedHot, French's, Herdez, Libanius, Liguria, McCormick, Helados Nestle´, Señor Cactus, Yemina, Chi-Chi's, Wholly Guacamole, Betty Crocker, Cinammon Toast Crunch Treats, Fiber One, Häagen-Dazs, Fruit by the Foot, Fruit Gushers, Fruit Roll-ups, Kikkoman, Larabar, Lucky Charms, Pillsbury, Nature Valley, Reynolds, General Mills, Nutrisa, Moyo, Chilim Balam, Cielito Querido Café, Onei, Don Miguel, La Victoria, and Golden Grahams brands. The company exports its products. The company was formerly known as Compañía Comercial herdez S.A. and changed its name to Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V. in 1991. The company was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico. Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V. is a subsidiary of Hechos Con Amor S.A. de C.V.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Grupo Herdez, S.A. reported revenue of 38.6B MXN in FY2025 versus 26.2B MXN in FY2021, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.8B MXN in FY2025, compounding +25.3%/yr from FY2021.

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Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.