Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V stock MXN 76.90, price MXN 55.81, upside +37.8%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 16.09 MXN – 73.14 MXN · fair‑value band 44.78 MXN – 119.45 MXN · the 55.81 MXN price screens below the 76.90 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V., a food company, provides processed food in Mexico and internationally. It operates through Momentum, Canned Food, and Export segments.
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The company offers organic food; pasta; pasta, spicy, ketchup-type, homemade, hot, Worcestershire, soy, teriyaki, cooking, refrigerated, and taco sauces; coffee and coffee capsules; olives; chilies, dips, salsas, seasonings, tortillas, and tortilla chips; prepared drinks; ground tomato; frozen Mexican dishes; moles; canned vegetables; goat and mozzarella cheese; mustard; frozen popsicles and ice cream; tuna, beans, dips, guacamole, and vegetable juice; and enchiladas.
It also provides hummus, dry jocoque, and pita bread; salad dressings, spices, mayonnaise, jams, and teas; yogurt; healthy snacks and food supplements; processed avocado; nutrition bars, confectionery, and baking flour; tomato puree; legumes; honey; marmalade; and household packaging, such as aluminum foil, as well as plastic, waxed, and resealable bags.
In addition, the company operates a Mexican restaurant.
It sells its products under Aires de Campo, Barilla, Blasón, Bu´falo, Carlota, Del Fuerte, Doña María, Embasa, Flaveur, Frank's RedHot, French's, Herdez, Libanius, Liguria, McCormick, Helados Nestle´, Señor Cactus, Yemina, Chi-Chi's, Wholly Guacamole, Betty Crocker, Cinammon Toast Crunch Treats, Fiber One, Häagen-Dazs, Fruit by the Foot, Fruit Gushers, Fruit Roll-ups, Kikkoman, Larabar, Lucky Charms, Pillsbury, Nature Valley, Reynolds, General Mills, Nutrisa, Moyo, Chilim Balam, Cielito Querido Café, Onei, Don Miguel, La Victoria, and Golden Grahams brands.
The company exports its products. The company was formerly known as Compañía Comercial herdez S.A. and changed its name to Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V. in 1991. The company was founded in 1910 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Grupo Herdez, S.A.B. de C.V. is a subsidiary of Hechos Con Amor S.A. de C.V.
Stock analysis
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ) currently trades at 55.81 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 76.90 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 27.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 107.22 MXN per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the 55.81 MXN price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at 31.00 MXN, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 44.78 MXN (bear) to 119.45 MXN (bull), the price of 55.81 MXN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 38.6B MXN in FY2025 versus 26.2B MXN in FY2021, a compound +10.2%/yr. Reported net income was 1.8B MXN in FY2025, compounding +25.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 17.9B MXN (≈ $957M) Small · P/E ratio 14.3 · P/S ratio 0.66 · EPS (TTM) 3.89 MXN · Dividend yield 14.5% · Net margin 4.6% · Return on equity 14.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 38%, HERDEZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear44.78 MXNFair Value 76.90 MXNBull119.45 MXN
Price 55.81 MXN · Upside +37.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (3.22 MXN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in MXN ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in MXN: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+28.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)14.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 14%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Mexico: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.2% a year for the price.
Compare Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 626 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+37.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)138.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)5.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−41.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)14.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.66× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HERDEZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 76.90 MXN versus a price of 55.81 MXN, about +38% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HERDEZ?
Our model-based fair value for Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 76.90 MXN (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 55.81 MXN.
What is the quality score of HERDEZ?
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 76.90 MXN (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 44.78 MXN, optimistic scenario 119.45 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 76.90 MXN, about +38% upside versus a price of 55.81 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 44.78 MXN, optimistic scenario 119.45 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 33.0B MXN (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of 14.50% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V would have to grow free cash flow by +2.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.9 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HERDEZ use?
Our models discount Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V that is +2.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V grew +9.9 % a year. The price currently implies +2.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (+2.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 15.85 %: that much free cash flow Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V it is 76.90 MXN per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 55.81 MXN. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, HERDEZ trades below its calculated fair value: price 55.81 MXN, fair value 76.90 MXN, a gap of about +38% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HERDEZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (55.81 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (76.90 MXN). For Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V the two are 21.09 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V worth?
The market values Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V at about 17.9B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 55.81 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 76.90 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HERDEZ?
Our models span a range for Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V: cautious scenario 44.78 MXN, base 76.90 MXN, optimistic 119.45 MXN per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 55.81 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HERDEZ?
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 76.90 MXN is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 14.5%, debt of 1.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HERDEZ from its 52-week high?
Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V trades at 55.81 MXN, about 24% below its 52-week high of 73.14 MXN and 12% above the low of 49.72 MXN (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 76.90 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 55.81 MXN, calculated fair value 76.90 MXN (+38%), Quality Score 67/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HERDEZ calculated?
We run Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 76.90 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 55.81 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 76.90 MXN, about +38% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V right now?
The model range is unusually wide (44.78 MXN to 119.45 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V
How large is the market capitalisation of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The market capitalisation of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 17.9B MXN (≈ $957M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 0.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V are 3.89 MXN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The dividend yield of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 14.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The net margin of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 4.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 14.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 12.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
The operating margin of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Revenue at Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is growing −41.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ)?
Earnings per share at Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V are growing +11.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V (HERDEZ) carry?
The net debt of Grupo Herdez S.A.B. de C.V is 7.4B MXN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 28, 2026