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Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation $11.95, price $24.48, upside -51.2%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · ISIN US4399131048

HK Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation

HKHC · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $11.95 · Strongly overvalued (−51%)
!Quality 34/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +20.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 76.0% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
·1.45% dividend yield
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 37/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 28 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 29 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1,176 $19.13 Fair Value $11.95 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $19.13 – $1,176 · fair‑value band $8.96 – $14.94 · the $24.48 price screens above the $11.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation is an employee owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to high net worth individuals. It also caters to individuals, investment companies, pension and profit sharing plans, pooled investment vehicles, charitable organizations, and corporations.

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Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation is an employee owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to high net worth individuals. It also caters to individuals, investment companies, pension and profit sharing plans, pooled investment vehicles, charitable organizations, and corporations. The firm manages separate client-focused equity and fixed income portfolios. It also manages equity mutual fund for its clients. The firm invests in the public equity, fixed income, and alternative markets across the globe. It typically invests in value stocks of small cap and large cap companies. The firm employs a fundamental analysis to create its portfolios. It conducts in-house research to make its investments. Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation was founded in 1994 and is based in New York City with additional offices in Charlotte, North Carolina; Summit, New Jersey and White Plains, New York.

Stock analysis

Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC) currently trades at $24.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.95, implying the stock looks roughly 104.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 17 models at a data quality of 80/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.

Scenario range: $8.96 (bear) to $14.94 (bull), the price of $24.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation reported revenue of $72.8M in FY2025 versus $29.7M in FY2021, a compound +25.1%/yr. Reported net income was $4.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $522M · P/E ratio 8.2 · P/S ratio 0.55 · EPS (TTM) $2.98 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −24.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −51%, HKHC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $8.96 Fair Value $11.95 Bull $14.94
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.92 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple $11.60 $15.46 $19.33 55
NCAV (Graham) $9.09 $12.19 $18.19 51
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple $11.60 $15.46 $19.33 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.09 $12.19 $18.19 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 34/100

Of which business quality 24 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 14
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 22
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 30
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.0% (2020) → 15.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
not computed

HKHC screens 105% overvalued. Compare with Blackstone Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −51% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 76% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −20% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.4% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.2× · Cheaper than median
P/B 1.54× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 7.24× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 53.1× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 55
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)28 · sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)29 · sector 80

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Blackstone Inc BX $124.01 $52.88 −57%
Brookfield Corporation BN $37.85 $13.75 −64%
KKR & Co KKR $98.44 $19.97 −80%
Apollo Global Management, Inc APO $124.15 $229.64 +85%
State Street Corporation STT $180.25 $138.33 −23%
Ameriprise Financial, Inc AMP $512.37 $579.51 +13%
Ares Management Corporation ARES $124.72 $119.25 −4%
Northern Trust Corporation NTRS $173.40 $122.02 −30%
Raymond James Financial, Inc RJF $159.39 $312.27 +96%
T. Rowe Price Group TROW $104.17 $208.34 +100%

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Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation · Fair Value
$11.95 −105%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HKHC

Frequently asked questions

Is Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.95 versus a price of $24.48, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HKHC?
Our model-based fair value for Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation is $11.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $24.48.
What is the quality score of HKHC?
Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.95 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.96, optimistic scenario $14.94. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.95, about −51% upside versus a price of $24.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.96, optimistic scenario $14.94. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $72.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation pay a dividend?
Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation it is $11.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $24.48. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HKHC trades above its calculated fair value: price $24.48, fair value $11.95, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HKHC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($24.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.95). For Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation the two are $12.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation worth?
The market values Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation at about $522M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $24.48; our models calculate a fair value of $11.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HKHC?
Our models span a range for Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation: cautious scenario $8.96, base $11.95, optimistic $14.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $24.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HKHC?
Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 7.2, EV/EBITDA 53.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HKHC from its 52-week high?
Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation trades at $24.48, about 37% below its 52-week high of $38.58 and 5% above the low of $23.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $24.48, calculated fair value $11.95 (−51%), Quality Score 34/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HKHC calculated?
We run Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $24.48. Our model-based fair value is $11.95, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.94). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
The market capitalisation of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation is $522M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation is 0.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation are $2.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
The dividend yield of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation is 1.4% (payout 11.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
The net margin of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation is 6.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation is −24.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
The operating margin of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation is −19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
Revenue at Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation is growing −3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +190%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation are growing +218% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC) generate?
The free cash flow of Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation is −$43.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation (HKHC) hold?
Horizon Kinetics Holding Corporation holds more cash than debt, $74.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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