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HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of HMH Holding Inc. Class A $15.16, price $18.55, upside -18.3%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · US · ISIN US40445M1009

HH HMH Holding Inc. Class A logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

HMH Holding Inc. Class A

HMH · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $15.16 · Overvalued (−18%)
!Quality 63/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +6.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (4/10)
!Narrow moat 43/100
✓Insider activity 90/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 9 out of 100
!Weak on past: 26 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$24.26 $16.89 Fair Value $15.16 Apr 2026 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

6‑month range $16.89 – $24.26 · fair‑value band $13.11 – $19.74 · the $18.55 price screens above the $15.16 fair value. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

HMH Holding Inc. provides offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling equipment and systems and services in the United States and Norway.

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HMH Holding Inc. provides offshore and onshore oil and gas drilling equipment and systems and services in the United States and Norway. The company's services include sales of projects and products including drilling equipment packages for newbuild or a reactivated drilling rig, and individual or grouped components of drilling and pressure control equipment. The company also offers aftermarket services including services and replacement parts on installed equipment and integrated digital solutions. The company sells equipment and services to drilling contractors; operators, including both oil and gas E&P companies and mining companies onshore and offshore; and manufacturers, consisting of shipyards and manufacturers of capital equipment. In addition, the company also offers equipment and services to the onshore and subsea mining industry. The company offers equipment under two categories: pressure control systems, including Blowout Preventers; and topside equipment comprising hoisting and rotating systems and drilling circulating systems. Its pressure control systems include blowout preventers (BOPs), BOP control systems, drilling risers, and wellhead connectors. The company's topside equipment includes hoisting and rotating systems, such as top drive, iron roughneck and pipe handling, and derrick and drawworks; and drilling circulating systems, such as mud pumps, slurry pumps, and mud mixing and control systems. The company's aftermarket services include transactional services on installed equipment, such as the manufacturing and sale of replacement spare parts, overhaul and repair of installed equipment, recertifications and field labor; and integrated solutions to provide comprehensive digital solutions. Additionally, it develops digital solutions for remote drilling automation and condition-based monitoring. HMH Holding Inc. was founded in 1895 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Stock analysis

HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock (HMH) currently trades at $18.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.16, implying the stock looks roughly 22.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $21.32 per share, and 11 of the 22 models we run sit above the $18.55 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.64, and 11 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $13.11 (bear) to $19.74 (bull), the price of $18.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock reported revenue of $822M in FY2025 versus $677M in FY2022, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was $45.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $816M · P/E ratio 143.5 · P/S ratio 7.94 · EPS (TTM) $0.1300 · Net margin 5.5% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.0% · Operating margin 11.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −18%, HMH screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $13.11 Fair Value $15.16 Bull $19.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0951 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $17.73 $23.12 $32.69 78
Growth DCF $18.25 $23.39 $31.79 76
Owner Earnings $17.65 $23.02 $32.56 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $17.73 $23.12 $32.69 78
Owner Earnings $17.65 $23.02 $32.56 74
5Y Revenue Exit $14.60 $20.89 $30.12 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $14.13 $20.08 $28.08 72
5Y P/E Exit $11.66 $15.89 $21.07 69
10Y Revenue Exit $15.45 $20.80 $26.76 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $15.55 $20.32 $25.54 67
10Y P/E Exit $14.16 $17.79 $21.35 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $7.02 $11.88 $14.47 64
EPV $13.39 $15.53 $17.31 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $10.85 $14.46 $18.08 63
P/S Multiple $13.17 $17.56 $21.95 58
P/B Multiple $13.17 $17.56 $21.95 55
EV/EBIT $16.93 $23.32 $29.71 66
EV/EBITDA $13.60 $18.88 $24.17 67
EV/Revenue $13.44 $20.16 $26.88 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.94 $10.64 $15.88 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $18.25 $23.39 $31.79 76
Rev-Margin DCF $14.60 $21.32 $29.91 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $11.93 $12.13 $11.73 68
ROIC Compounder $13.39 $15.53 $17.66 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $7.80 $11.15 $14.49 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 66
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 18
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 29
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+37.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.3% → 14%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.4% a year for the price and +7.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+0.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+14.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+13.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+11.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+10.0%

HMH screens 22% overvalued. Compare with SLB N.V →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 190 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −18% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −14% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.28× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 143.5× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 11.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)9 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 4
PAST (return on equity)26 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)86 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 34

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SLB N.V SLB $52.12 $28.66 −45%
Baker Hughes Company BKR $57.26 $32.40 −43%
TechnipFMC plc FTI $70.82 $27.68 −61%
Halliburton Company HAL $32.85 $21.50 −35%
Tenaris S.A TEN €24.55 €18.99 −23%
Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 ¥118.92 ¥128.30 +8%
Saipem SpA SPM €4.36 €2.72 −38%
Subsea 7 S.A SUBC kr 319.80 kr 250.82 −22%
China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 ¥12.12 ¥13.04 +8%
Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT €222.60 €244.86 +10%

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HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock · Fair Value
$15.16 −22%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HMH

Frequently asked questions

Is HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.16 versus a price of $18.55, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HMH?
Our model-based fair value for HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock is $15.16 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.55.
What is the quality score of HMH?
HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.16 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.11, optimistic scenario $19.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.16, about −18% upside versus a price of $18.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $13.11, optimistic scenario $19.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $795M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock would have to grow free cash flow by +4.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HMH use?
Our models discount HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock that is +4.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies +4.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock (+4.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.74 %: that much free cash flow HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock it is $15.16 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $18.55. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, HMH trades above its calculated fair value: price $18.55, fair value $15.16, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HMH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.16). For HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock the two are $3.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock worth?
The market values HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock at about $816M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $18.55; our models calculate a fair value of $15.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HMH?
Our models span a range for HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock: cautious scenario $13.11, base $15.16, optimistic $19.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $18.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HMH?
HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 143.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.16 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
Balance-sheet figures for HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $18.55, calculated fair value $15.16 (−18%), Quality Score 63/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HMH calculated?
We run HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $18.55. Our model-based fair value is $15.16, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock

How large is the market capitalisation of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
The market capitalisation of HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock is $816M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock is 7.94 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
Earnings per share at HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock are $0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 143.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
The net margin of HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock is 5.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock is 6.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
The operating margin of HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH)?
Revenue at HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock is growing −13.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does HMH Holding Inc. Class A (HMH) carry?
The net debt of HMH Holding Inc. Class A Common Stock is $294M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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