Hennessy Ad (HNNA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hennessy Ad stock $16.38, price $10.36, upside +58.1%, quality 74 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.48 – $12.55 · fair‑value band $12.29 – $20.48 · the $10.36 price screens below the $16.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Hennessy Advisors, Inc. is an publicly owned investment manager. It provides its services to Hennessy Funds and investment companies. The firm launches and manages equity, fixed income, and balanced mutual funds. It invests in the public equity and fixed income markets across the globe.
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The firm primarily invests in growth stocks of companies. It conducts in-house research to make its investments. Hennessy Advisors, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is based in Novato, California with additional offices in Boston, Massachusetts and Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Stock analysis
Hennessy Ad (HNNA) currently trades at $10.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.38, implying the stock looks roughly 37% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $24.45 per share, and 8 of the 13 models we run sit above the $10.36 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.74, and 5 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.29 (bear) to $20.48 (bull), the price of $10.36 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Hennessy Ad reported revenue of $35.5M in FY2025 versus $32.8M in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was $10.0M in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $83.3M Micro · P/E ratio 9.9 · P/S ratio 2.50 · EPS (TTM) $1.05 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 24.8% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 58%, HNNA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$12.29Fair Value $16.38Bull$20.48
Price $10.36 · Upside +58.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4720 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $183,573 and none bought.
SaleKiera NewtonDirector3× since Dec 30, 2025: 1,867 shares, avg. $9.95$18,580Sep 29, 2026
SaleThomas L SeaveyDirector1,875 shares at $10.15$19,031Sep 24, 2026
SaleDaniel B SteadmanExecutive VP5,000 shares at $10.26$51,300Sep 24, 2026
SaleKathryn FahySVP and CFO10,000 shares at $10.00$100,000May 11, 2026
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.3% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+6.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.6% vs 0.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 37%
2025 sits 55% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−16.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −18.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+58.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.4% · Above median
Return on assets6.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)24.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)34.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.41× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hennessy Ad Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HNNA
Frequently asked questions
Is Hennessy Ad (HNNA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.38 versus a price of $10.36, about +58% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HNNA?
Our model-based fair value for Hennessy Ad is $16.38 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.36.
What is the quality score of HNNA?
Hennessy Ad has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.38 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.29, optimistic scenario $20.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hennessy Ad stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.38, about +58% upside versus a price of $10.36 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $12.29, optimistic scenario $20.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
Hennessy Ad reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.3M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Hennessy Ad pay a dividend?
Hennessy Ad currently shows a dividend yield of 5.58% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hennessy Ad (HNNA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hennessy Ad pays a dividend of $0.578 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 20, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2005. The payout ratio is 55.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.92 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hennessy Ad would have to grow free cash flow by -16.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.3 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HNNA use?
Our models discount Hennessy Ad at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hennessy Ad that is -16.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hennessy Ad (HNNA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hennessy Ad grew +1.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -16.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hennessy Ad (HNNA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hennessy Ad (-16.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.03 %: that much free cash flow Hennessy Ad produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hennessy Ad it is $16.38 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $10.36. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Hennessy Ad stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, HNNA trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.36, fair value $16.38, a gap of about +58% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HNNA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.38). For Hennessy Ad the two are $6.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hennessy Ad worth?
The market values Hennessy Ad at about $83.3M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $10.36; our models calculate a fair value of $16.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HNNA?
Our models span a range for Hennessy Ad: cautious scenario $12.29, base $16.38, optimistic $20.48 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $10.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HNNA?
Hennessy Ad trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.9 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.38 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 8.2. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 0.9, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 4.4.
What is the PEG ratio of HNNA?
The PEG ratio of Hennessy Ad is 0.71 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hennessy Ad (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HNNA from its 52-week high?
Hennessy Ad trades at $10.36, about 2% below its 52-week high of $10.53 and 16% above the low of $8.93 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hennessy Ad?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hennessy Ad stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $10.36, calculated fair value $16.38 (+58%), Quality Score 74/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HNNA calculated?
We run Hennessy Ad through 13 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $16.38 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Hennessy Ad currently trades 37% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was $10.36. Our model-based fair value is $16.38, about +58% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hennessy Ad right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($12.29). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (74/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Hennessy Ad (HNNA) come from?
Earnings per share at Hennessy Ad grew −3.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.1 %, EBIT margin −3.6 %, tax rate +1.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hennessy Ad
How large is the market capitalisation of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
The market capitalisation of Hennessy Ad is $83.3M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hennessy Ad is 2.50 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
Earnings per share at Hennessy Ad are $1.05 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
The dividend yield of Hennessy Ad is 5.6% (payout 55.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
The net margin of Hennessy Ad is 24.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hennessy Ad is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hennessy Ad is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
The operating margin of Hennessy Ad is 34.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
Revenue at Hennessy Ad is growing +4.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hennessy Ad (HNNA)?
Earnings per share at Hennessy Ad are growing −3.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Hennessy Ad (HNNA) hold?
Hennessy Ad holds more cash than debt, $31.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026