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Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk PT (HOKI) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Defensive · ID · Market cap 523B IDR (≈ $52.3M) · ISIN ID1000139801

BP Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk PT HOKI · JK
Price57.00 IDR
Fair Value117.31 IDR
Upside+105.8%
Quality54/100
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Strengths

Trades 51% below our fair value of 117.31 IDR
Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.8% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
!Narrow moat 12/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.6 %/yr)
Loss-making · -2.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
Narrow moat 12/100
Evidence: Medium Range 71.82 IDR – 162.79 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 12 valuation models · updated 16 days ago

Share price +5.6% over the past month.

A solid business, trading 51% below our fair value.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

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What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (71.82 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (71.82 IDR to 162.79 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

254.68 IDR 50.00 IDR Fair Value 117.31 IDR Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 50.00 IDR – 254.68 IDR · fair‑value band 71.82 IDR – 162.79 IDR · the 57.00 IDR price screens below the 117.31 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk PT (HOKI) currently trades at 57.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 117.31 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 105.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk PT generated revenue of 1.4T IDR at a net margin of -2.8%. Revenue grew 46.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.8%. Net debt stands at 332B IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 71.82 IDR (bear case) to 162.79 IDR (bull case); at 57.00 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at 106%, HOKI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 142.79 IDR 216.89 IDR 328.53 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 114.38 IDR 179.31 IDR 254.11 IDR 74
Gordon GGM 9.62 IDR 21.00 IDR 35.33 IDR 70
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 139.84 IDR 222.87 IDR 355.87 IDR 38
5Y Revenue Exit 114.38 IDR 178.72 IDR 260.15 IDR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 52.42 IDR 62.79 IDR 72.95 IDR 41
10Y Revenue Exit 118.64 IDR 180.42 IDR 262.27 IDR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 81.61 IDR 98.06 IDR 116.05 IDR 37
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 9.62 IDR 21.00 IDR 35.33 IDR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 9.62 IDR 16.21 IDR 21.89 IDR 61
Multiples
EV/EBITDA 9.47 IDR 12.55 IDR 15.64 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 106.34 IDR 151.82 IDR 197.31 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 30.54 IDR 40.93 IDR 61.09 IDR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 142.79 IDR 216.89 IDR 328.53 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 114.38 IDR 179.31 IDR 254.11 IDR 74

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (179.31 IDR) versus Multiples (12.55 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.38 TTM
EPS (TTM) -4.05 IDR
Net margin -2.8% FY2025
Return on equity -6.8% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2% avg 5y
Operating margin -4.8% TTM
More key figures
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 1.4T IDR TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +46.7% 3y avg +9.4%
EPS growth (YoY) +181%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 113B IDR FY2025
Net debt 332B IDR FY2025 · ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 23
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 34
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 61
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 67
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 16
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

PT Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk engages in the manufacture and trading of rice and its derivative products in Indonesia. The company offers its rice through supermarkets and minimarkets under the Topi Koki, HOKI, Rumah Limas, BPS, Super Belida, HOKAIRI, and Daily Meal brand names.

Full company description

PT Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk engages in the manufacture and trading of rice and its derivative products in Indonesia. The company offers its rice through supermarkets and minimarkets under the Topi Koki, HOKI, Rumah Limas, BPS, Super Belida, HOKAIRI, and Daily Meal brand names. It is involved in the provision of husk power systems; trading of marketable securities; and sale of grains, rental of power plants and other industries. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Jakarta Timur, Indonesia. PT Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Buyung Investama Gemilang.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk PT reported revenue of 1.2T IDR in FY2025 versus 934B IDR in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was −34.2B IDR in FY2025.

Growth Quality 29/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.2T IDR
Latest YoY
−6.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+0.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (15Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.9%
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +6.7%/yr
FY21 934B IDR
FY22 926B IDR
FY23 1.3T IDR
FY24 1.3T IDR
FY25 1.2T IDR
Net income
FY21 12.1B IDR
FY22 90.6M IDR
FY23 −1.5B IDR
FY24 −3.0B IDR
FY25 −34.2B IDR

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk PT Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HOKI

Peer Group

Packaged Foods · 672 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside +106% · Top 25%
Return on assets -2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) -3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -5% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth 47% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.9% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.02× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper

P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 24
FUTURE100 · sector 20
PAST0 · sector 26
HEALTH99 · sector 96
DIVIDEND38 · sector 51

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nestlé S.A NESN CHF 78.62 CHF 57.26 -27%
Danone S.A BN €64.70 €48.41 -25%
Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND ₹1,478 ₹251.94 -83%
The Kraft Heinz Company KHC $25.13 $24.59 -2%
Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 ¥35.05 ¥21.93 -37%
Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 ¥25.51 ¥32.50 +27%
Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 ¥25.28 ¥9.89 -61%
General Mills, Inc GIS $40.44 $28.32 -30%
Wilmar International Limited F34 3.64 SGD 3.89 SGD +7%
McCormick & Company MKCV $55.65 $43.29 -22%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk PT (HOKI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 117.31 IDR versus a price of 57.00 IDR, about +106% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HOKI?
Our model-based fair value for Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk PT is 117.31 IDR (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 57.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of HOKI?
Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk PT has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk PT (HOKI)?
Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk PT reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.4T IDR (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HOKI?
The net profit margin of Buyung Poetra Sembada Tbk PT is about -2.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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