Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Hopson Development Holdings Limited $0.40, price $0.33, upside +21.7%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.3300 – $0.7348 · fair‑value band $0.1797 – $0.7060 · the $0.3300 price screens below the $0.4017 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Hopson Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, primarily develops residential and commercial properties in China. It operates through five segments: Property Development, Commercial Properties Investment, Property Management, Infrastructure, and Investment.
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Hopson Development Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, primarily develops residential and commercial properties in China. It operates through five segments: Property Development, Commercial Properties Investment, Property Management, Infrastructure, and Investment. The company invests in and rents properties; manages restaurants, hotels, and properties; and operates hotels. It also provides water supply, clubhouse and residential, consultancy, and architectural design services. In addition, the company engages in design, construction, and renovation services; sale of properties; and investment in private and listed equity relating to high-and-new technology and medical science. The company was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong. Hopson Development Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Sounda Properties Limited.
Stock analysis
Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF) currently trades at $0.3300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.4017, implying the stock looks roughly 17.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 26 models at a data quality of 88/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.1797 (bear) to $0.7060 (bull), the price of $0.3300 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hopson Development Holdings Limited reported revenue of HK$37.8B in FY2024 versus HK$34.4B in FY2020, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$120M in FY2024, compounding −69.4%/yr from FY2020.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B · P/S ratio 0.04 · Net margin 0.3% · Return on equity −1.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 27.1% · Revenue (TTM) $30.5B · Revenue growth (YoY) −53.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades near its 52-week high, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 22%, HPDHF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1797Fair Value $0.4017Bull $0.7060
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.3%
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−5.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.37% → 18%
Compare Hopson Development Holdings Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 570 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Above median
Fair Value upside+152% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)27% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−53% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.54× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hopson Development Holdings Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HPDHF
Frequently asked questions
Is Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.4017 versus a price of $0.3300, about +22% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HPDHF?
Our model-based fair value for Hopson Development Holdings Limited is $0.4017 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.3300.
What is the quality score of HPDHF?
Hopson Development Holdings Limited has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.4017 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1797, optimistic scenario $0.7060. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hopson Development Holdings Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.4017, about +22% upside versus a price of $0.3300 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.1797, optimistic scenario $0.7060. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
Hopson Development Holdings Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $30.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hopson Development Holdings Limited it is $0.4017 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.3300. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hopson Development Holdings Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, HPDHF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.3300, fair value $0.4017, a gap of about +22% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HPDHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.3300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.4017). For Hopson Development Holdings Limited the two are $0.0717 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hopson Development Holdings Limited worth?
The market values Hopson Development Holdings Limited at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.3300; our models calculate a fair value of $0.4017 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HPDHF?
Our models span a range for Hopson Development Holdings Limited: cautious scenario $0.1797, base $0.4017, optimistic $0.7060 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $0.3300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hopson Development Holdings Limited (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −1.7%, debt of 0.54 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HPDHF from its 52-week high?
Hopson Development Holdings Limited trades at $0.3300, about 0% below its 52-week high of $0.3300 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.4017 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hopson Development Holdings Limited?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hopson Development Holdings Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.3300, calculated fair value $0.4017 (+22%), Quality Score 50/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HPDHF calculated?
We run Hopson Development Holdings Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.4017, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Hopson Development Holdings Limited currently trades 22 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $0.3300. Our model-based fair value is $0.4017, about +22% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hopson Development Holdings Limited right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($0.1797 to $0.7060). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of Hopson Development Holdings Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
The market capitalisation of Hopson Development Holdings Limited is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hopson Development Holdings Limited is 0.04 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
The net margin of Hopson Development Holdings Limited is 0.3% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hopson Development Holdings Limited is −1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hopson Development Holdings Limited is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
The operating margin of Hopson Development Holdings Limited is 27.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
Revenue at Hopson Development Holdings Limited is growing −53.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF)?
Earnings per share at Hopson Development Holdings Limited are growing −72.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF) generate?
The free cash flow of Hopson Development Holdings Limited is $8.5B (fiscal year 2024). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hopson Development Holdings Limited (HPDHF) carry?
The net debt of Hopson Development Holdings Limited is $67.1B (fiscal year 2024, ≈ 7.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 13, 2026