Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Horizon Technology Finance stock $3.54, price $3.96, that is 10.7% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.58 – $9.70 · fair‑value band $2.65 – $4.42 · the $3.96 price screens above the $3.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Horizon Technology Finance Corporation is a business development company specializing in lending and and investing in development-stage investments.
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It focuses on making secured debt and venture lending investments to venture capital backed companies in the technology, life science, healthcare information and services, cleantech and sustainability industries. It seeks to invest in companies in the United States.
Stock analysis
Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) currently trades at $3.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.54, 11% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $2.65 (bear) to $4.42 (bull), the price of $3.96 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Horizon Technology Finance reported revenue of $40.0M in FY2025 versus $33.3M in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $257M Micro · P/S ratio 2.75 · EPS (TTM) $−0.8300 · Net margin −57.4% · Return on equity −15.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 84.8% · Revenue (TTM) $93.8M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −11%, HRZN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$2.65Fair Value $3.54Bull$4.42
Price $3.96 · Downside -10.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
P/B Multiple$3.12$4.16$5.2055
NCAV (Graham)$2.44$3.28$4.8954
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple$3.12$4.16$5.2055
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$2.44$3.28$4.8954
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors bought shares worth $629,675, most recently on Jun 10, 2026. Buying cluster
BuyDaniel R. TrolioExecutive VP and CFO11,500 shares at $4.34$49,910Jun 10, 2026
BuyThomas J. AllisonDirector6,000 shares at $4.36$26,160Jun 9, 2026
BuyKimberley Ann O'ConnorDirector10,000 shares at $4.37$43,700Jun 9, 2026
BuyMichael BalkinChief Executive Officer, Director100,000 shares at $4.34$434,000Jun 9, 2026
BuyPaul G SeitzChief Investment Officer11,477 shares at $4.35$49,925Jun 9, 2026
BuyJonathan Joseph GoodmanDirector6,000 shares at $4.33$25,980Jun 9, 2026
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
63.7% (2020) → −4.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.0%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.2% a year for the price.
Compare Horizon Technology Finance with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 587 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−10.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−57.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)84.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−8.6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)26.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.54 versus a price of $3.96, about 11% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HRZN?
Our model-based fair value for Horizon Technology Finance is $3.54 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.96.
What is the quality score of HRZN?
Horizon Technology Finance has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.54 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.65, optimistic scenario $4.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Horizon Technology Finance stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.54, about 11% lower versus a price of $3.96 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.65, optimistic scenario $4.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Horizon Technology Finance reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $93.8M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Horizon Technology Finance would have to grow free cash flow by -4.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.1 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HRZN use?
Our models discount Horizon Technology Finance at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.99, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Horizon Technology Finance that is -4.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Horizon Technology Finance grew +31.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -4.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Horizon Technology Finance (-4.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 22.01 %: that much free cash flow Horizon Technology Finance produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Horizon Technology Finance it is $3.54 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $3.96. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Horizon Technology Finance stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, HRZN trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.96, fair value $3.54, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HRZN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.96); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.54). For Horizon Technology Finance the two are $0.4240 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Horizon Technology Finance worth?
The market values Horizon Technology Finance at about $257M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $3.96; our models calculate a fair value of $3.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HRZN?
Our models span a range for Horizon Technology Finance: cautious scenario $2.65, base $3.54, optimistic $4.42 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $3.96). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of HRZN?
The PEG ratio of Horizon Technology Finance is 1.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Horizon Technology Finance (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −15.9%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HRZN from its 52-week high?
Horizon Technology Finance trades at $3.96, about 33% below its 52-week high of $5.94 and 11% above the low of $3.58 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Horizon Technology Finance?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Horizon Technology Finance stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $3.96, calculated fair value $3.54 (−11%), Quality Score 53/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HRZN calculated?
We run Horizon Technology Finance through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $3.54 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Horizon Technology Finance itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $3.96. Our model-based fair value is $3.54, about 11% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Horizon Technology Finance right now?
Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Horizon Technology Finance
How large is the market capitalisation of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The market capitalisation of Horizon Technology Finance is $257M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Horizon Technology Finance is 2.75 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Technology Finance are $−0.8300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The net margin of Horizon Technology Finance is −57.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Horizon Technology Finance is −15.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Horizon Technology Finance is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The operating margin of Horizon Technology Finance is 84.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Revenue at Horizon Technology Finance is growing −8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Technology Finance are growing +242% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) carry?
The net debt of Horizon Technology Finance is $368M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026