Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Horizon Technology Finance $3.43, price $4.61, upside -25.5%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.58 – $9.70 · fair‑value band $2.58 – $4.29 · the $4.61 price screens above the $3.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Horizon Technology Finance Corporation is a business development company specializing in lending and and investing in development-stage investments.
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Horizon Technology Finance Corporation is a business development company specializing in lending and and investing in development-stage investments. It focuses on making secured debt and venture lending investments to venture capital backed companies in the technology, life science, healthcare information and services, cleantech and sustainability industries. It seeks to invest in companies in the United States.
Stock analysis
Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) currently trades at $4.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.43, implying the stock looks roughly 34.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 10 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.
Scenario range: $2.58 (bear) to $4.29 (bull), the price of $4.61 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Horizon Technology Finance reported revenue of $40.0M in FY2025 versus $33.3M in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $300M · P/E ratio 13.2 · P/S ratio 3.27 · EPS (TTM) $0.3500 · Net margin −6.6% · Return on equity 1.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% · Operating margin 79.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −26%, HRZN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.58Fair Value $3.43Bull $4.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.3% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
63.7% (2020) → −4.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.9% a year for the price.
Compare Horizon Technology Finance with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 657 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside−26% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)1% · Below median
Return on assets6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)79% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)24.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.48× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.2× · Pricier than median
P/B0.94× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)3.12× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF5.3× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.91× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 54
FUTURE (revenue growth)11· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)6· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)76· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 81
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.43 versus a price of $4.61, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HRZN?
Our model-based fair value for Horizon Technology Finance is $3.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.61.
What is the quality score of HRZN?
Horizon Technology Finance has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.58, optimistic scenario $4.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Horizon Technology Finance stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.43, about −26% upside versus a price of $4.61 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.58, optimistic scenario $4.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Horizon Technology Finance reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $96.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Horizon Technology Finance would have to grow free cash flow by -4.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HRZN use?
Our models discount Horizon Technology Finance at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Horizon Technology Finance that is -4.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Horizon Technology Finance grew +31.1 % a year. The price currently implies -4.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Horizon Technology Finance (-4.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 18.91 %: that much free cash flow Horizon Technology Finance produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Horizon Technology Finance it is $3.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.61. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Horizon Technology Finance stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HRZN trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.61, fair value $3.43, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HRZN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.61); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.43). For Horizon Technology Finance the two are $1.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Horizon Technology Finance worth?
The market values Horizon Technology Finance at about $300M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.61; our models calculate a fair value of $3.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HRZN?
Our models span a range for Horizon Technology Finance: cautious scenario $2.58, base $3.43, optimistic $4.29 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.61). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HRZN?
Horizon Technology Finance trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 0.9, P/S 3.1.
What is the PEG ratio of HRZN?
The PEG ratio of Horizon Technology Finance is 1.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Horizon Technology Finance (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 1.5%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HRZN from its 52-week high?
Horizon Technology Finance trades at $4.61, about 22% below its 52-week high of $5.94 and 29% above the low of $3.58 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Horizon Technology Finance?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Horizon Technology Finance stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.61, calculated fair value $3.43 (−26%), Quality Score 52/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HRZN calculated?
We run Horizon Technology Finance through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Horizon Technology Finance itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $4.61. Our model-based fair value is $3.43, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Horizon Technology Finance right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Horizon Technology Finance
How large is the market capitalisation of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The market capitalisation of Horizon Technology Finance is $300M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Horizon Technology Finance is 3.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Technology Finance are $0.3500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The net margin of Horizon Technology Finance is −6.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Horizon Technology Finance is 1.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Horizon Technology Finance is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
The operating margin of Horizon Technology Finance is 79.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Revenue at Horizon Technology Finance is growing +2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN)?
Earnings per share at Horizon Technology Finance are growing +242% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Horizon Technology Finance (HRZN) carry?
The net debt of Horizon Technology Finance is $368M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026