Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust $5.08, price $4.25, upside +19.5%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.56 – $5.05 · fair‑value band $5.08 – $5.75 · the $4.25 price screens below the $5.08 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Hutchison Port Holdings Trust invests in, develops, operates, and manages deep-water container ports in Guangdong Province of the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and Macau.
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Hutchison Port Holdings Trust invests in, develops, operates, and manages deep-water container ports in Guangdong Province of the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, and Macau. The company invests in other types of port assets, such as river ports; and undertakes various port ancillary services, including trucking, feedering, freight forwarding, supply chain management, warehousing, and distribution services. Hutchison Port Holdings Trust was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY) currently trades at $4.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.08, implying the stock looks roughly 16.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $8.85 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the $4.25 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.82, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.08 (bear) to $5.75 (bull), the price of $4.25 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust reported revenue of HK$11.6B in FY2025 versus HK$13.2B in FY2021, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$748M in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.9B · P/E ratio 19.3 · P/S ratio 1.25 · EPS (TTM) $0.2200 · Dividend yield 2.7% · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 57% fair-value upside, at 20%, HUPHY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.08Fair Value $5.08Bull $5.75
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0794 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.8% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+81.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+78.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.53.7% vs −8.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 39%
2025 sits 1,262% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Compare Hutchison Port Holdings Trust with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+34.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.9% · Below median
Return on assets3.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)41.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−0.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.62× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hutchison Port Holdings Trust Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HUPHY
Frequently asked questions
Is Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.08 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $4.25, about +20% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of HUPHY?
Our model-based fair value for Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is $5.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $4.25.
What is the quality score of HUPHY?
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.08 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.08, optimistic scenario $5.75. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hutchison Port Holdings Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.08, about +20% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $4.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $5.08, optimistic scenario $5.75. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$11.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Hutchison Port Holdings Trust pay a dividend?
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hutchison Port Holdings Trust it is $5.08 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.25. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Hutchison Port Holdings Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, HUPHY trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.25, fair value $5.08, a gap of about +20% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HUPHY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.08). For Hutchison Port Holdings Trust the two are $0.8300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hutchison Port Holdings Trust worth?
The market values Hutchison Port Holdings Trust at about $1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.25; our models calculate a fair value of $5.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HUPHY?
Our models span a range for Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: cautious scenario $5.08, base $5.08, optimistic $5.75 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HUPHY?
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.6, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.9%, debt of 0.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HUPHY from its 52-week high?
Hutchison Port Holdings Trust trades at $4.25, about 16% below its 52-week high of $5.05 and 26% above the low of $3.36 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hutchison Port Holdings Trust?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hutchison Port Holdings Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.25, calculated fair value $5.08 (+20%), Quality Score 64/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HUPHY calculated?
We run Hutchison Port Holdings Trust through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $5.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Hutchison Port Holdings Trust currently trades 16 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $4.25. Our model-based fair value is $5.08, about +20% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hutchison Port Holdings Trust right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($5.08). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The models converge in a tight band ($5.08 to $5.75), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
The market capitalisation of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is $1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is 1.25 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
Earnings per share at Hutchison Port Holdings Trust are $0.2200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
The dividend yield of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is 2.7% (payout 52.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
The net margin of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is 6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is 5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is 5.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
The operating margin of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is 41.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
Revenue at Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is growing −0.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY)?
Earnings per share at Hutchison Port Holdings Trust are growing −1.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY) generate?
The free cash flow of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is HK$4.5B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HUPHY) carry?
The net debt of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust is HK$15.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026