Inficon Holding (IFCN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Inficon Holding CHF 65.13, price CHF 183, upside -64.4%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 59.41 – CHF 187.80 · fair‑value band CHF 40.08 – CHF 97.57 · the CHF 182.80 price screens above the CHF 65.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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INFICON Holding AG develops instruments for gas analysis, measurement, and control in Switzerland and internationally.
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INFICON Holding AG develops instruments for gas analysis, measurement, and control in Switzerland and internationally. The company offers industrial gas analyzers, mass spectrometers, and process control sensors; vacuum gauges, controllers, components, and feedthroughs; leak detectors; thin film controllers; application-based software solutions; quartz crystal, RF sensing, and xParts coating technologies; chemical detectors and monitors; micro gas chromatography; and service tools. It also provides toxic chemical analysis products for emergency response, security, and environmental monitoring, as well as instruments for energy and petrochemical applications. The company's analysis, measurement, and control products are used for gas leak detection in air conditioning, refrigeration, and automotive manufacturing; and for equipment manufacturers and end-users in the fabrication of semiconductors and thin film coatings for optics, flat panel displays, solar cells, LED lighting, and industrial vacuum coating applications. Its products are also used in the life sciences, research, aerospace, packaging, heat treatment, laser cutting, and other industrial sectors. The company was founded in 2000 and is based in Bad Ragaz, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Inficon Holding (IFCN) currently trades at CHF 182.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 65.13, implying the stock looks roughly 180.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of CHF 92.10 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the CHF 182.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at CHF 11.68, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 40.08 (bear) to CHF 97.57 (bull), the price of CHF 182.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Inficon Holding reported revenue of $706M in FY2025 versus $516M in FY2021, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was $89.9M in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 4.5B · P/E ratio 66.0 · P/S ratio 8.41 · EPS (TTM) CHF 2.77 · Dividend yield 1.4% · Net margin 12.7% · Return on equity 21.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 101% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −64%, IFCN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear CHF 40.08Fair Value CHF 65.13Bull CHF 97.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 0.2326 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.96/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.7% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 8%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 17%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+34.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.3% a year for the price and +11.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Scientific & Technical Instruments · 162 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Inficon Holding Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/IFCN
Frequently asked questions
Is Inficon Holding (IFCN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 65.13 versus a price of CHF 182.80, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IFCN?
Our model-based fair value for Inficon Holding is CHF 65.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 182.80.
What is the quality score of IFCN?
Inficon Holding has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 65.13 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 40.08, optimistic scenario CHF 97.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Inficon Holding stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 65.13, about −64% upside versus a price of CHF 182.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 40.08, optimistic scenario CHF 97.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
Inficon Holding reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 674M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Inficon Holding pay a dividend?
Inficon Holding currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.38% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Inficon Holding would have to grow free cash flow by +34.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of IFCN use?
Our models discount Inficon Holding at 10.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.54, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Inficon Holding that is +34.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Inficon Holding (IFCN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Inficon Holding grew +12.2 % a year. The price currently implies +34.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Inficon Holding (IFCN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Inficon Holding (+34.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.61 %: that much free cash flow Inficon Holding produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Inficon Holding it is CHF 65.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of CHF 182.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Inficon Holding stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, IFCN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 182.80, fair value CHF 65.13, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IFCN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 182.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 65.13). For Inficon Holding the two are CHF 117.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Inficon Holding worth?
The market values Inficon Holding at about CHF 4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is CHF 182.80; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 65.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IFCN?
Our models span a range for Inficon Holding: cautious scenario CHF 40.08, base CHF 65.13, optimistic CHF 97.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price CHF 182.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of IFCN?
Inficon Holding trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 66.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 65.13 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 8.2, P/B 12.7, P/S 8.0, EV/EBITDA 40.1.
What is the PEG ratio of IFCN?
The PEG ratio of Inficon Holding is 8.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Inficon Holding (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 21.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is IFCN from its 52-week high?
Inficon Holding trades at CHF 182.80, about 3% below its 52-week high of CHF 187.80 and 101% above the low of CHF 90.98 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 65.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Inficon Holding?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Keysight Technologies, Inc, Garmin Ltd, Teledyne Technologies Incorporated, MKS Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Inficon Holding stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price CHF 182.80, calculated fair value CHF 65.13 (−64%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IFCN calculated?
We run Inficon Holding through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of CHF 65.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Inficon Holding itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was CHF 182.80. Our model-based fair value is CHF 65.13, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Inficon Holding right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 97.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (CHF 40.08 to CHF 97.57) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Inficon Holding (IFCN) come from?
Earnings per share at Inficon Holding grew +11.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.3 %, EBIT margin +2.0 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Inficon Holding
How large is the market capitalisation of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
The market capitalisation of Inficon Holding is CHF 4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Inficon Holding is 8.41 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
Earnings per share at Inficon Holding are CHF 2.77 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 66.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
The dividend yield of Inficon Holding is 1.4% (payout 91.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
The net margin of Inficon Holding is 12.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Inficon Holding is 21.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Inficon Holding is 25.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
The operating margin of Inficon Holding is 15.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
Revenue at Inficon Holding is growing −0.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Inficon Holding (IFCN)?
Earnings per share at Inficon Holding are growing −29.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Inficon Holding (IFCN) hold?
Inficon Holding holds more cash than debt, CHF 81.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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