Garmin Ltd (GRMN) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $46.6B
Garmin Ltd
GRMN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $162.95 to $146.67 (−10.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +21.4% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($197.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($100.76 to $197.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $72.70 – $307.36 · fair‑value band $100.76 – $197.89 · the $301.87 price screens above the $146.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Garmin Ltd (GRMN) currently trades at $301.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $146.67, implying the stock looks roughly 51.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 76/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Garmin Ltd generated revenue of $7.5B at a net margin of 23.3%. Revenue grew 14.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $2.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $100.76 (bear case) to $197.89 (bull case); at $301.87, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 63% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -54% fair-value upside, at -51%, GRMN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($160.86) versus Asset-Based ($31.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Garmin Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes a diverse range of GPS-enabled products and navigation, communications, sensor-based, and information products and services worldwide.
Full company description
Garmin Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes a diverse range of GPS-enabled products and navigation, communications, sensor-based, and information products and services worldwide. It offers running; cycling products; smartwatch devices; scales and monitors; and sports timing and performance analysis; Garmin Connect and Garmin Connect Mobile, which are web and mobile platforms where users can track and analyze their fitness, activities and workouts, and wellness data; and Connect IQ, which enables third parties to create applications that run on Garmin devices. It also provides adventure watches; outdoor handhelds and satellite communicators; golf devices; consumer automotive; dog devices; InReach and Gramin response; and dive devices. In addition, it designs, manufactures, and markets various aircraft avionics solutions, including integrated flight decks, electronic flight displays and instrumentation, navigation and communication products, automatic flight control systems and safety-enhancing technologies, audio control systems, engine indication systems, traffic awareness and avoidance solutions, ADS-B and transponders, weather information and avoidance solutions, datalink and connectivity solutions, and portable GPS navigators and wearables, as well as service products to the aviation market. Further, it offers chartplotters and multi-function displays, cartography, fishfinders, sonar, autopilot systems, radars, compliant instrument displays and sensors, VHF communication radios, handhelds and wearable devices, sailing, audio, digital switching, trolling motors, and lighting; and domain controllers and infotainment units, as well as software, map database, camera, wearable, and automotive solutions. The company sells its products through independent retailers, dealers, distributors, installation and repair shops, OEM, and online webshop. Garmin Ltd. was founded in 1989 and is based in Schaffhausen, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Garmin Ltd reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2025 versus $5.0B in FY2021, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2025, compounding +11.4%/yr from FY2021.
GRMN screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Keysight Technologies, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Garmin Up Over 21% Since Latest Earnings Beat and Raise
- Why Garmin (GRMN) International Revenue Trends Deserve Your Attention
- If You Invested $1000 in Garmin a Decade Ago, This is How Much It'd Be Worth Now
Peer Group
Scientific & Technical Instruments · 162 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Scientific & Technical Instruments median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Scientific & Technical Instruments stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Keysight Technologies, Inc KEYS | $315.90 | $84.16 | -73% |
| Teledyne Technologies Incorporated TDY | $635.52 | $367.58 | -42% |
| Chroma ATE Inc 2360 | 1,905 TWD | 286.15 TWD | -85% |
| Hexagon AB HEXAB | kr 80.10 | kr 52.93 | -34% |
| MKS Inc MKSI | $324.69 | $77.46 | -76% |
| AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Company 302132 | ¥52.91 | ¥34.47 | -35% |
| Fortive Corporation FTV | $61.78 | $33.84 | -45% |
| Trimble Inc TRMB | $52.72 | $24.47 | -54% |
| Cognex Corporation CGNX | $64.07 | $13.75 | -79% |
| Wuhan Guide Infrared Co 002414 | ¥13.15 | ¥3.21 | -76% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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