Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd $3.10, price $8.58, upside -63.9%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.00 – $15.59 · fair‑value band $2.92 – $3.88 · the $8.58 price screens above the $3.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, development, and exploration of minerals and precious metals in Africa. The company explores gold, platinum, palladium, rhodium, nickel, copper, zinc, germanium, silver, and lead deposits.
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Ivanhoe Mines Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, development, and exploration of minerals and precious metals in Africa. The company explores gold, platinum, palladium, rhodium, nickel, copper, zinc, germanium, silver, and lead deposits. Its projects include the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex mine located in the Central African Copperbelt; the Kipushi Zinc mine in Southern Haut-Katanga Province, Democratic Republic of Congo; and the Platreef PGM-Nickel mine located in the Northern Limb of South Africa's Bushveld Igneous Complex. It also holds interest in the Western Foreland exploration project covering an area of approximately 2,390 square kilometers located in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The company was formerly known as Ivanplats Limited and changed its name to Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. in August 2013. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF) currently trades at $8.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.10, 63.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of $9.17 per share, and 3 of the 9 models we run sit above the $8.58 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.77, and 6 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.92 (bear) to $3.88 (bull), the price of $8.58 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd reported revenue of $442M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was $262M in FY2025, compounding +47.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $12.2B · P/E ratio 95.3 · P/S ratio 56.5 · EPS (TTM) $0.0900 · Net margin 59.2% · Return on equity 2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.2% · Operating margin −7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −64%, IVPAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.92Fair Value $3.10Bull $3.88
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0681 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.10 versus a price of $8.58, about −64% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of IVPAF?
Our model-based fair value for Ivanhoe Mines Ltd is $3.10 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.58.
What is the quality score of IVPAF?
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.10 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.92, optimistic scenario $3.88. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ivanhoe Mines Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.10, about −64% upside versus a price of $8.58 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.92, optimistic scenario $3.88. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $530M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ivanhoe Mines Ltd it is $3.10 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $8.58. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ivanhoe Mines Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, IVPAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.58, fair value $3.10, a gap of about −64% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of IVPAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.58); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.10). For Ivanhoe Mines Ltd the two are $5.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ivanhoe Mines Ltd worth?
The market values Ivanhoe Mines Ltd at about $12.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $8.58; our models calculate a fair value of $3.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about IVPAF?
Our models span a range for Ivanhoe Mines Ltd: cautious scenario $2.92, base $3.10, optimistic $3.88 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $8.58). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is IVPAF from its 52-week high?
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd trades at $8.58, about 38% below its 52-week high of $13.91 and 23% above the low of $7.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ivanhoe Mines Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ivanhoe Mines Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $8.58, calculated fair value $3.10 (−64%), Quality Score 35/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of IVPAF calculated?
We run Ivanhoe Mines Ltd through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Ivanhoe Mines Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.58. Our model-based fair value is $3.10, about −64% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ivanhoe Mines Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
The market capitalisation of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd is $12.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd is 95.3. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd is 56.5 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
Earnings per share at Ivanhoe Mines Ltd are $0.0900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 95.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
The net margin of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd is 59.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd is 2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd is −2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
The operating margin of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd is −7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF)?
Revenue at Ivanhoe Mines Ltd is growing +115% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF) generate?
The free cash flow of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd is −$469M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Ivanhoe Mines Ltd (IVPAF) carry?
The net debt of Ivanhoe Mines Ltd is $492M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 3, 2026