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Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co (603799) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 74.7B CNY

ZH Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 · SHG
Price¥41.40
Fair Value¥25.57
Upside-38.2%
Quality30/100
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Expensive Growth
Thin margins · 8.3% net margin
Low debt · negative free cash flow
1.25% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (10/13)
Moderate moat 52/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥19.17 – ¥31.96 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 17 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from ¥54.77 to ¥25.57 (−53.3%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −7.8% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 38% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥31.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥114.15 ¥21.13 Fair Value ¥25.57 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥21.13 – ¥114.15 · fair‑value band ¥19.17 – ¥31.96 · the ¥41.40 price screens above the ¥25.57 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co (603799) currently trades at ¥41.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥25.57, implying the stock looks roughly 38.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co generated revenue of 89.0B CNY at a net margin of 8.3%. Revenue grew 44.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 15.6%. Net debt stands at 26.0B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥19.17 (bear case) to ¥31.96 (bull case); at ¥41.40, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -38%, 603799 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income ¥24.06 ¥29.06 ¥62.41 76
ROIC Compounder ¥62.47 ¥97.12 ¥120.70 72
Gordon GGM ¥12.93 ¥26.89 ¥42.65 70
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings ¥2.44 ¥6.19 ¥14.04 31
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥21.94 ¥153.03 ¥214.76 54
Lynch FV ¥67.83 ¥96.91 ¥125.98 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥67.83 ¥96.91 ¥125.98 46
EPV ¥45.22 ¥52.84 ¥59.50 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥12.93 ¥26.89 ¥42.65 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥12.93 ¥22.67 ¥28.22 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥48.40 ¥64.54 ¥80.67 63
P/S Multiple ¥41.14 ¥54.86 ¥68.57 58
P/B Multiple ¥41.14 ¥54.86 ¥68.57 55
EV/EBIT ¥71.50 ¥95.50 ¥119.50 53
EV/EBITDA ¥77.26 ¥103.17 ¥129.09 54
EV/Revenue ¥48.04 ¥68.84 ¥89.63 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥12.75 ¥17.09 ¥25.51 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥24.06 ¥29.06 ¥62.41 76
ROIC Compounder ¥62.47 ¥97.12 ¥120.70 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥89.98 ¥128.54 ¥167.10 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (¥128.54) versus DCF Models (¥6.19). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 89.0B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) +44.6%
Net margin 8.3%
Return on equity 15.6%
Free cash flow −6.7B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 10.0
More key figures
Operating margin 15.7%
EPS (TTM) ¥3.93
Dividend yield 1.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +88.6%
Net debt 26.0B CNY FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 24
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 20
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 10
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of lithium battery materials and diamond material products in China and internationally.

Full company description

Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of lithium battery materials and diamond material products in China and internationally. The company offers lithium battery positive electrode materials, ternary precursors, silver-diamond-lithium materials, and copper products, as well as cobalt, cathode, and bare metals. Its products are used in new energy vehicle power batteries, positive electrode materials for consumer electronics, and alloy materials. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Tongxiang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co reported revenue of ¥81.0B in FY2025 versus ¥35.3B in FY2021, a compound +23.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥6.1B in FY2025, compounding +11.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
81.0B CNY
Latest YoY
+32.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+8.7%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+30.8%
Avg. growth/yr (17Y)
+25.2%
Revenue +23.1%/yr
FY21 ¥35.3B
FY22 ¥63.0B
FY23 ¥66.3B
FY24 ¥60.9B
FY25 ¥81.0B
Net income +11.9%/yr
FY21 ¥3.9B
FY22 ¥3.9B
FY23 ¥3.4B
FY24 ¥4.2B
FY25 ¥6.1B

603799 screens 38% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/603799

Peer Group

Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 477 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 30 · Below median
Fair Value upside −38% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 16% · Above median
Revenue growth 45% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.38× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 1.55× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.84× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.5× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 23
PAST 62 · sector 0
HEALTH 81 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 25 · sector 23

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BHP Group BHPN 1,425 MXN 942.42 MXN -34%
Rio Tinto Group RIO A$164.89 A$81.76 -50%
Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB 199.23 MXN 187.72 MXN -6%
Vale S.A VALE $14.19 $9.14 -36%
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 58.05 SAR 33.87 SAR -42%
CMOC Group 603993 ¥18.20 ¥16.15 -11%
Fortescue Ltd FMG A$18.47 A$18.62 +1%
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥74.71 ¥9.55 -87%
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹521.95 ₹576.80 +11%
China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 ¥39.56 ¥10.59 -73%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co (603799) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥25.57 versus a price of ¥41.40, about −38% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603799?
Our model-based fair value for Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co is ¥25.57 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥41.40.
What is the quality score of 603799?
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co has a Quality Score of 30/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co (603799)?
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 89.0B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 603799?
The net profit margin of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co is about 8.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 8.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co pay a dividend?
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.97% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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