Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Julius Bär Gruppe AG $58.43, price $87.66, upside -33.3%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $16.67 – $95.68 · fair‑value band $43.82 – $73.04 · the $87.66 price screens above the $58.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Julius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions in Switzerland, Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally. The company provides investment advisory and discretionary mandates; structured products, securities execution and advisory, and private markets and fund offering; wealth planning, and family office services.
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Julius Bär Gruppe AG provides wealth management solutions in Switzerland, Europe, the Americas, Asia, and internationally. The company provides investment advisory and discretionary mandates; structured products, securities execution and advisory, and private markets and fund offering; wealth planning, and family office services. It also offers open product platform services. Julius Bär Gruppe AG was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF) currently trades at $87.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $58.43, 33.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $248.65 per share, and 2 of the 7 models we run sit above the $87.66 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $28.53, and 5 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $43.82 (bear) to $73.04 (bull), the price of $87.66 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Julius Bär Gruppe AG reported revenue of CHF 5.9B in FY2025 versus CHF 4.0B in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 764M in FY2025, compounding −8.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $22.7B · P/E ratio 18.7 · P/S ratio 2.42 · EPS (TTM) $4.68 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 12.9% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −33%, JBARF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $43.82Fair Value $58.43Bull $73.04
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.57 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+52.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.2% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−5.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−8.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.9% vs 5.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 16%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 657 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−27.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.9% · Above median
Return on assets0.7% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)20.3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)33.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)3.0% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.93× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)18.7× · Pricier than median
P/B2.68× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)5.16× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA18.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG2.92× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 60
FUTURE (revenue growth)9· sector 35
PAST (return on equity)43· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)53· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)59· sector 81
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Julius Bär Gruppe AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/JBARF
Frequently asked questions
Is Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $58.43 versus a price of $87.66, about −33% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of JBARF?
Our model-based fair value for Julius Bär Gruppe AG is $58.43 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $87.66.
What is the quality score of JBARF?
Julius Bär Gruppe AG has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $58.43 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $43.82, optimistic scenario $73.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Julius Bär Gruppe AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $58.43, about −33% upside versus a price of $87.66 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $43.82, optimistic scenario $73.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
Julius Bär Gruppe AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 3.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Julius Bär Gruppe AG pay a dividend?
Julius Bär Gruppe AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.97% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Julius Bär Gruppe AG it is $58.43 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $87.66. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Julius Bär Gruppe AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, JBARF trades above its calculated fair value: price $87.66, fair value $58.43, a gap of about −33% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of JBARF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($87.66); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($58.43). For Julius Bär Gruppe AG the two are $29.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Julius Bär Gruppe AG worth?
The market values Julius Bär Gruppe AG at about $22.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $87.66; our models calculate a fair value of $58.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about JBARF?
Our models span a range for Julius Bär Gruppe AG: cautious scenario $43.82, base $58.43, optimistic $73.04 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $87.66). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of JBARF?
Julius Bär Gruppe AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $58.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.9, P/B 2.7, P/S 5.2, EV/EBITDA 18.3.
What is the PEG ratio of JBARF?
The PEG ratio of Julius Bär Gruppe AG is 2.92 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Julius Bär Gruppe AG (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 10.9%, debt of 0.93 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is JBARF from its 52-week high?
Julius Bär Gruppe AG trades at $87.66, about 8% below its 52-week high of $95.68 and 41% above the low of $61.98 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $58.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Julius Bär Gruppe AG?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Julius Bär Gruppe AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $87.66, calculated fair value $58.43 (−33%), Quality Score 38/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of JBARF calculated?
We run Julius Bär Gruppe AG through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $58.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Julius Bär Gruppe AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $87.66. Our model-based fair value is $58.43, about −33% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Julius Bär Gruppe AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($73.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF) come from?
Earnings per share at Julius Bär Gruppe AG grew +7.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.2 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Julius Bär Gruppe AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
The market capitalisation of Julius Bär Gruppe AG is $22.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Julius Bär Gruppe AG is 2.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
Earnings per share at Julius Bär Gruppe AG are $4.68 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
The dividend yield of Julius Bär Gruppe AG is 3.0% (payout 55.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
The net margin of Julius Bär Gruppe AG is 12.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Julius Bär Gruppe AG is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Julius Bär Gruppe AG is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
The operating margin of Julius Bär Gruppe AG is 33.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
Revenue at Julius Bär Gruppe AG is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF)?
Earnings per share at Julius Bär Gruppe AG are growing −18.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF) generate?
The free cash flow of Julius Bär Gruppe AG is −CHF 148M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Julius Bär Gruppe AG (JBARF) carry?
The net debt of Julius Bär Gruppe AG is CHF 969M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026