Kestrel Group (KG) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $93.8M
Kestrel Group
KG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 26, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Share price −12.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 61% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($10.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.45 – $77.40 · fair‑value band $10.69 – $17.81 · the $8.82 price screens below the $14.24 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 26, 2026.
Analysis
Kestrel Group (KG) currently trades at $8.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.24, implying the stock looks roughly 61.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Kestrel Group generated revenue of $43.4M at a net margin of 91.5%. It earns a return on equity of 68.4%. Net debt stands at $160M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 2.2. Fundamentals as of Jul 26, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.69 (bear case) to $17.81 (bull case); at $8.82, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 96% fair-value upside, at 61%, KG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($73.78) versus Asset-Based ($10.99). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 7
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kestrel Group Ltd engages in provision of fronting services to insurance program managers, managing general agencies, reinsurers, and reinsurance brokers in Bermuda. The company operates through two segments: Program Services and Legacy Reinsurance. The company is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kestrel Group reported revenue of $34.0M in FY2025 versus $98.7M in FY2021, a compound −23.4%/yr. Reported net income was $46.7M in FY2025, compounding +16.2%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Insurance - Reinsurance · 28 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Reinsurance median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Reinsurance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 26, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1MUV2 1MUV2 | €522.60 | €669.36 | +28% |
| Swiss Re AG SREN | CHF 132.60 | CHF 218.88 | +65% |
| Hannover Rück SE HNR1 | €255.00 | €284.58 | +12% |
| Reinsurance Group RGA | $241.79 | $234.55 | -3% |
| Everest Group EG | $364.13 | $522.67 | +44% |
| RenaissanceRe Holdings RNR | $314.99 | $629.98 | +100% |
| SCOR SE SDRC | €33.04 | €66.08 | +100% |
| General Insurance Corporation GICRE | ₹364.85 | ₹715.98 | +96% |
| China Reinsurance (Group) Corporation 1508 | HK$1.37 | HK$2.74 | +100% |
| Hamilton Insurance Group HG | $34.60 | $69.20 | +100% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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