Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Kestrel Group, Ltd. $9.15, price $5.53, upside +65.4%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.18 – $71.20 · fair‑value band $7.61 – $24.66 · the $5.53 price screens below the $9.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Kestrel Group Ltd engages in provision of fronting services to insurance program managers, managing general agencies, reinsurers, and reinsurance brokers in Bermuda. The company operates through two segments: Program Services and Legacy Reinsurance. The company is based in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Stock analysis
Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG) currently trades at $5.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.15, implying the stock looks roughly 39.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $73.78 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the $5.53 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.99, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.61 (bear) to $24.66 (bull), the price of $5.53 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Kestrel Group, Ltd. reported revenue of $34.0M in FY2025 versus $98.7M in FY2021, a compound −23.4%/yr. Reported net income was $46.7M in FY2025, compounding +16.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $93.8M · P/E ratio 2.2 · P/S ratio 3.00 · EPS (TTM) $5.49 · Net margin 137% · Return on equity 68.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.0% · Operating margin −44.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 80% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 24% fair-value upside, at 65%, KG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.61Fair Value $9.15Bull $24.66
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.03 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.22/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+548.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−28.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+0.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 146%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (6 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Reinsurance · 28 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score47 · Below median
Fair Value upside+65% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)68% · Top 25%
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)91% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−45% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.36× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Reinsurance median · lower = cheaper
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Is Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.15 versus a price of $5.53, about +65% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KG?
Our model-based fair value for Kestrel Group, Ltd. is $9.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.53.
What is the quality score of KG?
Kestrel Group, Ltd. has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.15 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.61, optimistic scenario $24.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kestrel Group, Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.15, about +65% upside versus a price of $5.53 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $7.61, optimistic scenario $24.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
Kestrel Group, Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $43.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kestrel Group, Ltd. it is $9.15 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $5.53. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kestrel Group, Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, KG trades below its calculated fair value: price $5.53, fair value $9.15, a gap of about +65% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.15). For Kestrel Group, Ltd. the two are $3.62 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kestrel Group, Ltd. worth?
The market values Kestrel Group, Ltd. at about $93.8M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $5.53; our models calculate a fair value of $9.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KG?
Our models span a range for Kestrel Group, Ltd.: cautious scenario $7.61, base $9.15, optimistic $24.66 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $5.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KG?
Kestrel Group, Ltd. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 2.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kestrel Group, Ltd. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 68.4%, debt of 1.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KG from its 52-week high?
Kestrel Group, Ltd. trades at $5.53, about 80% below its 52-week high of $28.33 and 7% above the low of $5.18 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kestrel Group, Ltd.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value MUV2, Swiss Re AG, Hannover Rück SE, Reinsurance Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kestrel Group, Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $5.53, calculated fair value $9.15 (+65%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KG calculated?
We run Kestrel Group, Ltd. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Kestrel Group, Ltd. currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $5.53. Our model-based fair value is $9.15, about +65% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kestrel Group, Ltd. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($7.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($7.61 to $24.66). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Kestrel Group, Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
The market capitalisation of Kestrel Group, Ltd. is $93.8M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kestrel Group, Ltd. is 3.00 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
Earnings per share at Kestrel Group, Ltd. are $5.49 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 2.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
The net margin of Kestrel Group, Ltd. is 137% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kestrel Group, Ltd. is 68.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kestrel Group, Ltd. is 2.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
The operating margin of Kestrel Group, Ltd. is −44.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG)?
Revenue at Kestrel Group, Ltd. is growing +11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG) generate?
The free cash flow of Kestrel Group, Ltd. is −$96.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Kestrel Group, Ltd. (KG) carry?
The net debt of Kestrel Group, Ltd. is $160M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026