Kodiak Gas Services, Inc (KGS) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $7.0B
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc
KGS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 15, 2026, revised from $15.15 to $13.56 (−10.5%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −14.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.95). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
37‑month range $13.23 – $76.27 · fair‑value band $10.17 – $16.95 · the $59.90 price screens above the $13.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.
Analysis
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc (KGS) currently trades at $59.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.56, implying the stock looks roughly 77.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc generated revenue of $1.3B at a net margin of 5.1%. Revenue grew 4.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.4%. Net debt stands at $40.6M. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.17 (bear case) to $16.95 (bull case); at $59.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -36% fair-value upside, at -77%, KGS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($23.91) versus Asset-Based ($8.02). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. operates and provides contract compression infrastructure for customers in the oil and gas industry in the United States. It operates in two segments, Contract Services and Other Services.
Full company description
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. operates and provides contract compression infrastructure for customers in the oil and gas industry in the United States. It operates in two segments, Contract Services and Other Services. The Contract Services segment operates company-owned and customer-owned compression, and gas treating and cooling infrastructure to enable the production, gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas and oil. The Other Services segment provides a range of services to support the needs of customers, including station construction, maintenance and overhaul, freight and crane charges, parts sales, and other ancillary time and material-based offerings. The company was formerly known as Frontier TopCo, Inc. Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $606M in FY2021, a compound +21.2%/yr. Reported net income was $80.5M in FY2025, compounding −18.3%/yr from FY2021.
KGS screens 77% overvalued. Compare with SLB N.V →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) Stock May Be Above Fair Value After Q2 Earnings Miss
- Kodiak Gas Services Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) Could Be 29% Undervalued Following Q2 Earnings Miss
- Kodiak Gas Services Inc (KGS) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record EBITDA and Strategic ...
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 191 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 86/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SLB N.V SLBN | 836.00 MXN | 533.97 MXN | -36% |
| Baker Hughes Company BKR | $55.95 | $33.55 | -40% |
| TechnipFMC plc FTI | $74.57 | $27.57 | -63% |
| Halliburton Company HAL | $35.22 | $21.50 | -39% |
| Tenaris S.A TS | $57.16 | $45.68 | -20% |
| Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group 002353 | ¥138.79 | ¥34.17 | -75% |
| Saipem SpA SPM | €4.20 | €2.72 | -35% |
| Subsea 7 S.A SUBC | kr 319.00 | kr 227.98 | -29% |
| China Oilfield Services Limited 601808 | ¥12.08 | ¥12.64 | +5% |
| Gaztransport & Technigaz SA GTT | €188.10 | €95.01 | -49% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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