Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock $31.21, price $41.67, that is 25.1% below the price, quality 35 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
40‑month range $13.23 – $76.27 · fair‑value band $21.85 – $40.56 · the $41.67 price screens above the $31.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. operates and provides contract compression infrastructure for customers in the oil and gas industry in the United States. It operates in two segments, Contract Services and Other Services.
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The Contract Services segment operates company-owned and customer-owned compression, and gas treating and cooling infrastructure to enable the production, gathering, processing, and transportation of natural gas and oil.
The Other Services segment provides a range of services to support the needs of customers, including station construction, maintenance and overhaul, freight and crane charges, parts sales, and other ancillary time and material-based offerings.
The company was formerly known as Frontier TopCo, Inc. Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
Stock analysis
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) currently trades at $41.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.21, 25% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $57.48 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $41.67 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.27, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $21.85 (bear) to $40.56 (bull), the price of $41.67 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $606M in FY2021, a compound +21.2%/yr. Reported net income was $80.5M in FY2025, compounding −18.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $4.2B Mid · P/E ratio 54.1 · P/S ratio 3.01 · EPS (TTM) $0.7700 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 5.8% · Return on equity 4.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −25%, KGS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$21.85Fair Value $31.21Bull$40.56
Price $41.67 · Downside -25.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income$9.53$9.98$10.8176
FCF DCF$41.41$85.44$205.2573
EPV$8.05$13.26$17.7472
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$41.41$85.44$205.2573
Owner Earnings$18.94$71.09$174.9167
5Y Revenue Exit$2.55$16.52$40.7763
5Y EBITDA Exit$15.56$44.92$95.1569
5Y P/E Exit$0.3100$13.75$29.0563
10Y Revenue Exit$14.02$36.20$59.1864
10Y EBITDA Exit$23.33$59.82$121.6463
10Y P/E Exit$12.91$32.14$60.1660
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$5.42$37.08$52.0063
Lynch FV$10.90$15.58$20.2561
PEG = 1.0$10.90$15.58$20.2557
EPV$8.05$13.26$17.7472
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$13.76$27.24$40.9667
DDM Multi-Stage$13.76$23.63$28.7767
Multiples
P/E Multiple$8.36$11.15$13.9463
P/S Multiple$10.15$13.54$16.9258
P/B Multiple$8.60$11.47$14.3455
EV/EBIT$30.35$40.60$50.8566
EV/EBITDA$30.34$40.59$50.8467
EV/Revenue$10.47$15.12$19.7853
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$3.19$4.27$6.3754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$38.36$95.87$199.8572
Rev-Margin DCF$2.55$19.08$43.1864
Economic Profit
Residual Income$9.53$9.98$10.8176
ROIC Compounder$8.05$15.13$26.5668
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$12.85$18.36$23.8667
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.5M and none bought.
SaleRobert Michael McKeePresident & CEO, Director4× since Aug 19, 2026: 17,339 shares, avg. $57.44$995,911Nov 3, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleWilliam Chad LenamonExecutive Vice President & COO5× since Jun 11, 2026: 5,000 shares, avg. $62.79$313,970Oct 12, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePedro R. BuhigasChief Information Officer3× since Mar 19, 2026: 22,230 shares, avg. $58.63$1.3MSep 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleEwan William HamiltonEVP & Chief Accounting Officer5× since Mar 13, 2026: 18,176 shares, avg. $58.41$1.1MSep 14, 2026
SaleCory Anne RoclawskiEVP & CHRO3× since Mar 12, 2026: 36,182 shares, avg. $57.25$2.1MJul 8, 2026
BuyRandall J HoganDirector6,000 shares at $54.81$328,860Mar 13, 2026
BuyAlexander Newsom DardenDirector5,000 shares at $54.75$273,750Mar 13, 2026
BuyRobert Michael McKeePresident & CEO, Director433 shares at $50.23$21,774Feb 20, 2026
SaleEQT Fund Management S.a r.l.10% owner2× since Nov 12, 2025: 19,762,573 shares, avg. $33.84$668.7MDec 1, 2025
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+2.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 32%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.3% a year for the price and +10.4% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business shows emerging strength through its pivot into behind-the-meter power for data centers backed by a signed contract, yet remains limited by average or below-average durable advantage and high debt exceeding equity.
Main risk: Delays in power asset deployment push meaningful revenue further out and create near-term headwinds that could slow growth from the new data-center segment.
Kodiak is expanding its compression operations into behind-the-meter power for data centers, with a new six-year contract already signed. Yet recent analyst notes highlight delays in power asset deployment that push meaningful revenue further out and create near-term headwinds. Our models currently see the shares as overvalued. Will the long-term power pivot deliver faster than the compression base erodes, or will timing risks keep growth muted for longer?
Compare Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 166 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−25.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.6% · Below median
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)5.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)34.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)21.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.12× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)54.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.47× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)3.01× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)14.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.0× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 36
PAST (return on equity)18· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)94· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KGS
Frequently asked questions
Is Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.21 versus a price of $41.67, about 25% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KGS?
Our model-based fair value for Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. is $31.21 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $41.67.
What is the quality score of KGS?
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.21 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.85, optimistic scenario $40.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.21, about 25% lower versus a price of $41.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.85, optimistic scenario $40.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. pay a dividend?
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 4.70% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. pays a dividend of $1.96 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 17, 2026. The payout ratio is 182% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 255%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.43 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +11.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.7 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KGS use?
Our models discount Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. that is +11.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. grew +19.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +11.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (+11.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.05 %: that much free cash flow Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. it is $31.21 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $41.67. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, KGS trades above its calculated fair value: price $41.67, fair value $31.21, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KGS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($41.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.21). For Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. the two are $10.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. worth?
The market values Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. at about $4.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $41.67; our models calculate a fair value of $31.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KGS?
Our models span a range for Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.: cautious scenario $21.85, base $31.21, optimistic $40.56 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $41.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KGS?
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 54.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $31.21 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 32.4 (reported for FY2025: 45.3). Other multiples: P/B 3.5, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 4.6%, debt of 2.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KGS from its 52-week high?
Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. trades at $41.67, about 45% below its 52-week high of $76.27 and 29% above the low of $32.41 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, Tenaris S.A, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $41.67, calculated fair value $31.21 (−25%), Quality Score 35/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KGS calculated?
We run Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $31.21 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $41.67. Our model-based fair value is $31.21, about 25% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($40.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range ($21.85 to $40.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
The market capitalisation of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. is $4.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. is 3.01 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
Earnings per share at Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. are $0.7700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 54.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
The dividend yield of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. is 4.7% (payout 182%, on adjusted earnings, reported 255%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
The net margin of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. is 5.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
The operating margin of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. is 34.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
Revenue at Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. is growing +21.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +22.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS)?
Earnings per share at Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. are growing +23.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. (KGS) carry?
The net debt of Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. is $40.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026