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The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of The Kraft Heinz Company €23.68, price €19.73, upside +20.0%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Defensive · DE · ISIN US5007541064

TK Some data Oct 2, 2026

The Kraft Heinz Company

KHNZ · XETRA

UndervaluedThe stock appears undervalued with acceptable quality.

✓Fair value €23.68 · Undervalued (+20.0%)
!Quality 52/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -23.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓8.1% dividend yield · Cash covered
!Narrow moat 36/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€34.77 €17.87 Fair Value €23.68 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €17.87 – €34.77 · fair‑value band €15.44 – €34.71 · the €19.73 price screens below the €23.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

The Kraft Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in North America and internationally.

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The Kraft Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in North America and internationally. Its products include condiments, sauces, dressings, and spreads; cheese, frozen potato products, and other frozen meals; meal kits, frozen snacks, and pickles; dry packaged desserts, refrigerated ready to eat desserts, and other dessert toppings; ready to drink and powdered beverages, and liquid concentrates; American sliced and recipe cheeses; mainstream coffee, coffee pods, and premium coffee; and cold cuts, bacon, and hot dogs. It offers its products under the Kraft, Oscar Mayer, Heinz, Philadelphia, Lunchables, Velveeta, Ore-Ida, Capri Sun, Maxwell House, Kool-Aid, Jell-O, ABC, Master, Quero, Golden Circle, Wattie's, Pudliszki, and Plasmon brands, as well as Bagel Bites, Claussen, A1, and Cool Whip. It sells its products through its own sales organizations, as well as through independent brokers, agents, and distributors to chain, wholesale, cooperative, and independent grocery accounts; convenience, value, and club stores; pharmacies and drug stores; mass merchants; foodservice distributors; institutions, including hotels, restaurants, bakeries, hospitals, health care facilities, and government agencies; and various e-commerce platforms and retailers. The company has a strategic partnership with the National Football League. The company was formerly known as H.J. Heinz Holding Corporation and changed its name to The Kraft Heinz Company in July 2015. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ) currently trades at €19.73, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €23.68, implying the stock looks roughly 16.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €21.37 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the €19.73 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €14.73, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €15.44 (bear) to €34.71 (bull), the price of €19.73 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

The Kraft Heinz Company reported revenue of $24.9B in FY2025 versus $26.0B in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$5.8B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €27.1B · P/S ratio 1.08 · EPS (TTM) €−4.27 · Dividend yield 8.1% · Net margin −23.4% · Return on equity −12.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2% · Operating margin 20.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at 20%, KHNZ screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €15.44 Fair Value €23.68 Bull €34.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €20.18 €32.19 €55.53 78
Growth DCF €21.59 €33.32 €54.24 77
Rev-Margin DCF €11.12 €20.61 €32.68 71
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €20.18 €32.19 €55.53 78
5Y Revenue Exit €11.12 €19.85 €32.81 70
10Y Revenue Exit €13.86 €21.37 €29.47 67
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €13.06 €14.73 €16.90 69
DDM Multi-Stage €13.06 €16.93 €21.99 67
Multiples
EV/Revenue €7.11 €15.52 €23.93 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €15.61 €20.91 €31.21 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €21.59 €33.32 €54.24 77
Rev-Margin DCF €11.12 €20.61 €32.68 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 70
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 38
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 98
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 25/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
22.2% (2020) → −18.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.5% a year for the price and −2.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−2.0%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+0.4%
Projected 2028 (sales)+0.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+0.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.0%

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Values & ESG

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None of the checked exposures detected

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The Kraft Heinz Company · Fair Value
€23.68 +17%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The Kraft Heinz Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/KHNZ

Frequently asked questions

Is The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €23.68 versus a price of €19.73, about +20% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KHNZ?
Our model-based fair value for The Kraft Heinz Company is €23.68 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €19.73.
What is the quality score of KHNZ?
The Kraft Heinz Company has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €23.68 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario €15.44, optimistic scenario €34.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Kraft Heinz Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €23.68, about +20% upside versus a price of €19.73 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €15.44, optimistic scenario €34.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
The Kraft Heinz Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $25.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does The Kraft Heinz Company pay a dividend?
The Kraft Heinz Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.11% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, The Kraft Heinz Company would have to grow free cash flow by -4.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.0 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KHNZ use?
Our models discount The Kraft Heinz Company at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.08, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For The Kraft Heinz Company that is -4.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at The Kraft Heinz Company grew -1.0 % a year. The price currently implies -4.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into The Kraft Heinz Company (-4.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.88 %: that much free cash flow The Kraft Heinz Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Kraft Heinz Company it is €23.68 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of €19.73. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Kraft Heinz Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, KHNZ trades below its calculated fair value: price €19.73, fair value €23.68, a gap of about +20% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KHNZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€19.73); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€23.68). For The Kraft Heinz Company the two are €3.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Kraft Heinz Company worth?
The market values The Kraft Heinz Company at about €27.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is €19.73; our models calculate a fair value of €23.68 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KHNZ?
Our models span a range for The Kraft Heinz Company: cautious scenario €15.44, base €23.68, optimistic €34.71 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price €19.73). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is KHNZ from its 52-week high?
The Kraft Heinz Company trades at €19.73, about 19% below its 52-week high of €24.40 and 10% above the low of €17.87 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €23.68 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Kraft Heinz Company?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, Nestlé India Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Kraft Heinz Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price €19.73, calculated fair value €23.68 (+20%), Quality Score 52/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KHNZ calculated?
We run The Kraft Heinz Company through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €23.68, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. The Kraft Heinz Company currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was €19.73. Our model-based fair value is €23.68, about +20% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Kraft Heinz Company right now?
Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€15.44 to €34.71) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of The Kraft Heinz Company

How large is the market capitalisation of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
The market capitalisation of The Kraft Heinz Company is €27.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Kraft Heinz Company is 1.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
Earnings per share at The Kraft Heinz Company are €−4.27. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
The dividend yield of The Kraft Heinz Company is 8.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
The net margin of The Kraft Heinz Company is −23.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Kraft Heinz Company is −12.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Kraft Heinz Company is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
The operating margin of The Kraft Heinz Company is 20.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
Revenue at The Kraft Heinz Company is growing +0.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ)?
Earnings per share at The Kraft Heinz Company are growing +13.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does The Kraft Heinz Company (KHNZ) carry?
The net debt of The Kraft Heinz Company is $18.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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