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Kerry Group (KRYAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Kerry Group $71.31, price $96.41, upside -26.0%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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KG
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Kerry Group
KRYAF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $71.31 · Overvalued (−26.0%)
✓Quality 66/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −2.5 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 9.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.5% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 52/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $61.96 – $142.99 · fair‑value band $40.08 – $107.74 · the $96.41 price screens above the $71.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
Kerry Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides taste and nutrition solutions. The company offers taste solutions, such as dairy and dairy-free flavours, savoury flavours and extracts, smoke and grill, sweet flavours and extracts, and taste modulations.
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Kerry Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides taste and nutrition solutions. The company offers taste solutions, such as dairy and dairy-free flavours, savoury flavours and extracts, smoke and grill, sweet flavours and extracts, and taste modulations. It also provides nutrition solutions, including enzymes, proteins, nutritional lipids and bases, soluble dietary fibre, wellness and health, and dairy ingredients. In addition, the company offers functional ingredients, food solutions, and beverage solutions. Further, it provides pharmaceutical excipients, tablet film coatings, pharma lactose, cell culture supplements, fermentation, and acetates solutions. Additionally, the company offers emulsifier ingredients for bakery; food protection and preservation solutions; food reformulation solutions; bakery freshness solutions; texturant solutions; and foodservice solutions that include convenience retail and custom solutions under DaVinci Gourmet, Golden Dipt, Big Train, and Island Oasis brands. The company also engages in the investment and trading activities, as well as provides services. It serves food, beverage, supplement, pharma and life science, and pet markets. The company operates in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. It provides its products through retail and foodservice channels. Kerry Group plc was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Tralee, Ireland.
Stock analysis
Kerry Group (KRYAF) currently trades at $96.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $71.31, 26.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $81.65 per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the $96.41 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $21.47, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $40.08 (bear) to $107.74 (bull), the price of $96.41 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Kerry Group reported revenue of €6.8B in FY2025 versus €7.4B in FY2021, a compound −2.1%/yr. Reported net income was €658M in FY2025, compounding −3.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $15.9B · P/E ratio 20.8 · P/S ratio 2.03 · EPS (TTM) $4.63 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 9.7% · Return on equity 10.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −26%, KRYAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $40.08
Fair Value $71.31
Bull $107.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.44 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$28.72
$49.95
$81.01
78
Growth DCF
$29.81
$49.17
$76.09
77
Residual Income
$38.12
$43.23
$56.30
76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$28.72
$49.95
$81.01
78
Owner Earnings
$45.01
$74.14
$116.75
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$30.88
$57.04
$89.72
71
5Y EBITDA Exit
$47.35
$86.89
$131.92
74
5Y P/E Exit
$41.92
$77.04
$112.77
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$28.21
$51.60
$81.54
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$40.04
$71.98
$112.82
67
10Y P/E Exit
$36.62
$65.26
$98.62
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$31.53
$82.96
$108.33
65
PEG = 1.0
$15.90
$22.72
$29.53
57
EPV
$38.24
$47.12
$54.89
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$13.91
$28.38
$45.89
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$13.91
$21.47
$29.56
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$73.02
$97.37
$121.71
63
P/S Multiple
$57.10
$76.13
$95.16
58
P/B Multiple
$59.11
$78.82
$98.52
55
EV/EBIT
$65.26
$92.03
$118.80
65
EV/EBITDA
$67.58
$95.12
$122.66
67
EV/Revenue
$34.91
$56.32
$77.73
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$20.95
$28.08
$41.91
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$29.81
$49.17
$76.09
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$30.88
$57.26
$86.26
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$38.12
$43.23
$56.30
76
ROIC Compounder
$38.24
$49.46
$64.31
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$57.16
$81.65
$106.15
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
66/100
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Profitability
41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+6.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+4.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4.5% vs 3.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.8% a year for the price and +0.9% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+0.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+4.2%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.9%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+3.4%
KRYAF screens overvalued: fair value 26% below the price. Compare with Nestlé S.A →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (72 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Kerry upgraded as Citi sees returns-led upside in ingredients
- All You Need to Know About Kerry Group (KRYAY) Rating Upgrade to Buy
- Kerry Group PLC (KRYAF) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Performance and Strategic ...
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Context: sector, industry, market
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 74.63 | CHF 59.51 | −20% |
| Danone S.A BN | €59.12 | €50.65 | −14% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥33.93 | ¥37.32 | +10% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $23.45 | $29.20 | +25% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,363 | ₹724.74 | −47% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥26.90 | ¥41.84 | +56% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥24.55 | ¥9.98 | −59% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $31.67 | $34.59 | +9% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.68 SGD | 5.14 SGD | +40% |
| Uni-President Enterprises Corp 1216 | 74.50 TWD | 58.72 TWD | −21% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Kerry Group (KRYAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $71.31 versus a price of $96.41, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of KRYAF?
Our model-based fair value for Kerry Group is $71.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $96.41.
What is the quality score of KRYAF?
Kerry Group has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $71.31 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $40.08, optimistic scenario $107.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kerry Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $71.31, about −26% upside versus a price of $96.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $40.08, optimistic scenario $107.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
Kerry Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €6.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Kerry Group pay a dividend?
Kerry Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.45% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kerry Group would have to grow free cash flow by +14.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -0.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KRYAF use?
Our models discount Kerry Group at 8.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.56, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kerry Group that is +14.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kerry Group (KRYAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kerry Group grew -0.6 % a year. The price currently implies +14.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kerry Group (KRYAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kerry Group (+14.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.50 %: that much free cash flow Kerry Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kerry Group it is $71.31 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $96.41. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kerry Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, KRYAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $96.41, fair value $71.31, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KRYAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($96.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($71.31). For Kerry Group the two are $25.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kerry Group worth?
The market values Kerry Group at about $15.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $96.41; our models calculate a fair value of $71.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KRYAF?
Our models span a range for Kerry Group: cautious scenario $40.08, base $71.31, optimistic $107.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $96.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is KRYAF from its 52-week high?
Kerry Group trades at $96.41, about 2% below its 52-week high of $97.88 and 29% above the low of $74.47 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $71.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kerry Group?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kerry Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $96.41, calculated fair value $71.31 (−26%), Quality Score 66/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KRYAF calculated?
We run Kerry Group through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $71.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Kerry Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $96.41. Our model-based fair value is $71.31, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kerry Group right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($40.08 to $107.74). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Kerry Group (KRYAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Kerry Group grew +3.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.3 %, EBIT margin +1.1 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kerry Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
The market capitalisation of Kerry Group is $15.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Kerry Group is 20.8. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kerry Group is 2.03 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
Earnings per share at Kerry Group are $4.63 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
The dividend yield of Kerry Group is 1.5% (payout 30.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
The net margin of Kerry Group is 9.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kerry Group is 10.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kerry Group is 7.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
The operating margin of Kerry Group is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
Revenue at Kerry Group is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kerry Group (KRYAF)?
Earnings per share at Kerry Group are growing +9.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kerry Group (KRYAF) carry?
The net debt of Kerry Group is €2.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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