Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (LDX) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · AU · Market cap A$92.6M
Fair value as of: Jun 24, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 48 days ago
Share price +17.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 78% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0340). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (A$0.0170 to A$0.0340) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0100 – A$1.22 · fair‑value band A$0.0170 – A$0.0340 · the A$0.1150 price screens above the A$0.0255 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 24, 2026.
Analysis
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings (LDX) currently trades at A$0.1150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0255, implying the stock looks roughly 77.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Lumos Diagnostics Holdings generated revenue of A$12.2M at a net margin of -75.8%. Revenue declined 3.0% year over year. Net debt stands at A$5.0M. Fundamentals as of Jun 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0170 (bear case) to A$0.0340 (bull case); at A$0.1150, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 342% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -78%, LDX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jun 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited develops, manufactures, and commercializes point-of-care diagnostic products for diagnosis and management of infectious diseases in the United States.
Full company description
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited develops, manufactures, and commercializes point-of-care diagnostic products for diagnosis and management of infectious diseases in the United States. The company's products include FebriDx, a point-of-care diagnostic test for detecting and differentiating viral and bacterial respiratory infections; and ViraDx, a three-in-one point-of-care test for influenza A, influenza B, and COVID-19. It also provides assay development and manufacturing services for point-of-care tests and proprietary digital reader platforms. Lumos Diagnostics Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2018 and is based in Carlsbad, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Lumos Diagnostics Holdings reported revenue of A$12.5M in FY2024 versus A$18.9M in FY2020, a compound −9.8%/yr. Reported net income was −A$7.2M in FY2024.
LDX screens 78% overvalued. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →
Peer Group
Medical Devices · 348 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jun 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbott Laboratories, ABT | $100.68 | $74.79 | -26% |
| Stryker Corporation SYK | $316.44 | $186.28 | -41% |
| Medtronic plc MDT | $83.56 | $65.57 | -22% |
| Boston Scientific Corporation BSX | $43.04 | $38.44 | -11% |
| Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW | $85.73 | $41.02 | -52% |
| Siemens Healthineers AG SHL | €34.59 | €33.87 | -2% |
| Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 | ¥149.43 | ¥147.63 | -1% |
| Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare Co 688271 | ¥109.00 | ¥43.60 | -60% |
| Demant A/S DEMANT | kr 276.60 | kr 161.17 | -42% |
| Getinge AB GETIB | kr 206.80 | kr 192.14 | -7% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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