Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 20, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lifestance Health Group Inc stock $0.81, price $12.22, upside -93.4%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.79 – $24.38 · fair‑value band $0.5700 – $1.06 · the $12.22 price screens above the $0.8100 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 20, 2026.
Follow Lifestance Health Group in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Lifestance Health Group is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
LifeStance Health Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides outpatient mental health services to children, adolescents, adults, and geriatrics in the United States.
Show moreShow less
The company offers patients a multidisciplinary suite of mental health services, psychiatric evaluations and treatment, psychological, and neuropsychological testing, as well as individual, family, and group therapy.
It also treats a range of mental health conditions, including anxiety, depression, bipolar disorder, eating disorders, psychotic disorders, and post-traumatic stress disorder.
In addition, the company operates an outpatient mental health platform, as well as offers patient care virtually through its online delivery platform or in-person at its centers. LifeStance Health Group, Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona.
Stock analysis
Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST) currently trades at $12.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.8100, 93.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $4.43 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $12.22 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.0900, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.5700 (bear) to $1.06 (bull), the price of $12.22 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Lifestance Health Group Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $668M in FY2021, a compound +20.9%/yr. Reported net income was $9.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.7B Mid · P/E ratio 94.0 · P/S ratio 2.88 · EPS (TTM) $0.1300 · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −6.8% · Operating margin 7.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 154% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at −93%, LFST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.0900 to $7.44). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$0.5700Fair Value $0.8100Bull$1.06
Price $12.22 · Upside -93.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1047 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.3%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 2%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.8% a year for the price and +11.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (95 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: LifeStance's large outpatient mental health platform with commercial insurance contracts supports margin expansion via reimbursements, yet its model depends on continuous clinician recruitment amid turnover.
Main risk: Dependence on continuously adding and retaining thousands of clinicians amid natural turnover risks limiting service capacity and pressuring margins.
LifeStance runs one of the largest outpatient mental health platforms, with roughly ninety percent of revenue coming from commercial insurance contracts rather than government payers or cash pay. This payer mix supports margin expansion through reimbursement gains and productivity tools, yet the model still depends on continuously adding and retaining thousands of clinicians amid natural turnover. Does the scale advantage outweigh the ongoing operational demands of clinician recruitment?
Compare Lifestance Health Group Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 241 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−93.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.4% · Below median
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)3.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)7.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)26.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)94.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.00× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)2.88× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow41.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA33.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 28
PAST (return on equity)14· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 90
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 39
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lifestance Health Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LFST
Frequently asked questions
Is Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.8100 versus a price of $12.22, about −93% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LFST?
Our model-based fair value for Lifestance Health Group Inc is $0.8100 (as of Oct 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.22.
What is the quality score of LFST?
Lifestance Health Group Inc has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.8100 (as of Oct 20, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5700, optimistic scenario $1.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lifestance Health Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.8100, about −93% upside versus a price of $12.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.5700, optimistic scenario $1.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
Lifestance Health Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.6B (latest available figure, as of Oct 20, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lifestance Health Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +25.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +30.4 % per year. As of Oct 20, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LFST use?
Our models discount Lifestance Health Group Inc at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.22, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lifestance Health Group Inc that is +25.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lifestance Health Group Inc grew +30.4 % a year. The price currently implies +25.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lifestance Health Group Inc (+25.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.32 %: that much free cash flow Lifestance Health Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lifestance Health Group Inc it is $0.8100 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026), against a price of $12.22. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lifestance Health Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 20, 2026, LFST trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.22, fair value $0.8100, a gap of about −93% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LFST?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.8100). For Lifestance Health Group Inc the two are $11.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lifestance Health Group Inc worth?
The market values Lifestance Health Group Inc at about $4.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 20, 2026). Per share that is $12.22; our models calculate a fair value of $0.8100 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LFST?
Our models span a range for Lifestance Health Group Inc: cautious scenario $0.5700, base $0.8100, optimistic $1.06 per share (as of Oct 20, 2026, price $12.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LFST?
Lifestance Health Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 94.0 (as of Oct 20, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.8100 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 407.3 (reported for FY2025: 611.0). Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 33.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lifestance Health Group Inc (as of Oct 20, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LFST from its 52-week high?
Lifestance Health Group Inc trades at $12.22, about 9% below its 52-week high of $13.38 and 154% above the low of $4.81 (as of Oct 20, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.8100 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lifestance Health Group Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lifestance Health Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 20, 2026: price $12.22, calculated fair value $0.8100 (−93%), Quality Score 63/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LFST calculated?
We run Lifestance Health Group Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.8100, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Lifestance Health Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
The closing price on Oct 20, 2026 was $12.22. Our model-based fair value is $0.8100, about −93% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lifestance Health Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($0.5700 to $1.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Lifestance Health Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
The market capitalisation of Lifestance Health Group Inc is $4.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lifestance Health Group Inc is 2.88 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
Earnings per share at Lifestance Health Group Inc are $0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 94.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
The net margin of Lifestance Health Group Inc is 3.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lifestance Health Group Inc is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lifestance Health Group Inc is −6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
The operating margin of Lifestance Health Group Inc is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
Revenue at Lifestance Health Group Inc is growing +26.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST)?
Earnings per share at Lifestance Health Group Inc are growing +19.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Lifestance Health Group Inc (LFST) hold?
Lifestance Health Group Inc holds more cash than debt, $54.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Lifestance Health Group Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Lifestance Health Group Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Thin data
Oct 20, 2026