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Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Lyra Therapeutics Inc $0.78, price $0.54, upside +43.6%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US55234L1052

LT Lyra Therapeutics Inc logo Thin data Jun 23, 2026

Lyra Therapeutics Inc

LYRA · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $0.7800 · Undervalued (+43.6%)
!Quality 40/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −33.7 %/yr)
!Negative equity (buybacks among others) · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/4)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$1,707 $0.0014 Fair Value $0.7800 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.0014 – $1,707 · fair‑value band $0.5900 – $0.9800 · the $0.5430 price screens below the $0.7800 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jun 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Lyra Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of anti-inflammatory therapies for the treatment of patients with chronic rhinosinusitis. Its technology is designed to deliver medicines directly to the affected tissue for sustained periods with a single administration.

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Lyra Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biotechnology company, focuses on the development and commercialization of anti-inflammatory therapies for the treatment of patients with chronic rhinosinusitis. Its technology is designed to deliver medicines directly to the affected tissue for sustained periods with a single administration. The company's product candidates include LYR-210, an anti-inflammatory implantable drug matrix which is in Phase III clinical trial for the treatment of chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS); and LYR-220 for CRS patients who have failed previous medical management and continue to require treatment to manage CRS symptoms. It has a collaboration agreement with LianBio Inflammatory Limited to develop and commercialize LYR-210 in mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, South Korea, Singapore, and Thailand. The company was formerly known as 480 Biomedical, Inc. and changed its name to Lyra Therapeutics, Inc. in July 2018. Lyra Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Watertown, Massachusetts.

Stock analysis

Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA) currently trades at $0.5430, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.7800, implying the stock looks roughly 30.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.5900 (bear) to $0.9800 (bull), the price of $0.5430 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Lyra Therapeutics Inc reported revenue of $398K in FY2025 versus $285K in FY2021, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$28.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $355K · P/S ratio 0.89 · EPS (TTM) $−18.62 · Return on equity −6,595% · Return on assets (EBIT) −81.8% · Operating margin −98,729% · Revenue (TTM) $398K · Revenue growth (YoY) −96.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 93% below its 52-week high and 1,430% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 44%, LYRA screens cheaper than that median.

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 11
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 50
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 47
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 0
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−74.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−33.7%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−15,303.5% (2021) → −7,794.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 625 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/4 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Below median
Fair Value upside +200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −36.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −96.7% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 22

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $527.67 $580.44 +10%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $752.25 $1,275 +69%
argenx SE ARGX $959.49 $918.60 −4%
CSL Limited CSL A$175.35 A$192.89 +10%
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,354,000 KRW 1,489,400 KRW +10%
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $360.85 $280.94 −22%
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $255.96 $217.88 −15%
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $58.21 $19.01 −67%
Celltrion, Inc 068270 177,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −58%
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$53.00 HK$58.30 +10%

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Lyra Therapeutics Inc · Fair Value
$0.7800 +30%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lyra Therapeutics Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LYRA

Frequently asked questions

Is Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jun 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.7800 versus a price of $0.5430, about +44% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of LYRA?
Our model-based fair value for Lyra Therapeutics Inc is $0.7800 (as of Jun 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.5430.
What is the quality score of LYRA?
Lyra Therapeutics Inc has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.7800 (as of Jun 23, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5900, optimistic scenario $0.9800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lyra Therapeutics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.7800, about +44% upside versus a price of $0.5430 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.5900, optimistic scenario $0.9800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA)?
Lyra Therapeutics Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $398K (latest available figure, as of Jun 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lyra Therapeutics Inc it is $0.7800 per share (as of Jun 23, 2026), against a price of $0.5430. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lyra Therapeutics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Jun 23, 2026, LYRA trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.5430, fair value $0.7800, a gap of about +44% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LYRA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.5430); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.7800). For Lyra Therapeutics Inc the two are $0.2370 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lyra Therapeutics Inc worth?
The market values Lyra Therapeutics Inc at about $355K (market capitalisation, as of Jun 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.5430; our models calculate a fair value of $0.7800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LYRA?
Our models span a range for Lyra Therapeutics Inc: cautious scenario $0.5900, base $0.7800, optimistic $0.9800 per share (as of Jun 23, 2026, price $0.5430). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lyra Therapeutics Inc (as of Jun 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LYRA from its 52-week high?
Lyra Therapeutics Inc trades at $0.5430, about 93% below its 52-week high of $8.09 and 1,430% above the low of $0.0355 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.7800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lyra Therapeutics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lyra Therapeutics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Jun 23, 2026: price $0.5430, calculated fair value $0.7800 (+44%), Quality Score 40/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LYRA calculated?
We run Lyra Therapeutics Inc through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.7800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lyra Therapeutics Inc currently trades 30 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.5430. Our model-based fair value is $0.7800, about +44% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lyra Therapeutics Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (40/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.5900). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Lyra Therapeutics Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA)?
The market capitalisation of Lyra Therapeutics Inc is $355K. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lyra Therapeutics Inc is 0.89 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA)?
Earnings per share at Lyra Therapeutics Inc are $−18.62. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lyra Therapeutics Inc is −6,595% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lyra Therapeutics Inc is −81.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA)?
The operating margin of Lyra Therapeutics Inc is −98,729% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA)?
Revenue at Lyra Therapeutics Inc is growing −96.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −33.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA) generate?
The free cash flow of Lyra Therapeutics Inc is −$29.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lyra Therapeutics Inc (LYRA) carry?
The net debt of Lyra Therapeutics Inc is $14.4M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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