Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Lonza Group Ltd $158, price $688, upside -77.0%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $325.67 – $816.63 · fair‑value band $141.58 – $207.08 · the $688.21 price screens above the $158.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Lonza Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a contract development and manufacturing organization for pharma and biotech companies in Europe, North and Central America, Latin America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Biologics; Advanced Synthesis; and Specialized Modalities segments.
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Lonza Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a contract development and manufacturing organization for pharma and biotech companies in Europe, North and Central America, Latin America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Biologics; Advanced Synthesis; and Specialized Modalities segments. The Integrated Biologics segment offers CDMO biologics services from clinical development, drug substance, and drug product manufacturing; and operates mammalian and drug product platforms. Its Advanced Synthesis segment manufactures antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and other bioconjugates, small molecules, and highly potent active pharmaceutical ingredients; and operates small molecules and bioconjugates platforms. The Specialized Modalities segment operates various technologies, such as spanning cell & gene, microbial, bioscience, and mRNA. Lonza Group AG was incorporated in 1897 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF) currently trades at $688.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $158.25, 77.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $311.10 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the $688.21 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $51.24, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $141.58 (bear) to $207.08 (bull), the price of $688.21 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Lonza Group Ltd reported revenue of CHF 6.5B in FY2025 versus CHF 5.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 949M in FY2025, compounding −24.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $48.3B · P/E ratio 42.0 · P/S ratio 6.10 · EPS (TTM) $16.40 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 14.5% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −6% fair-value upside, at −77%, LZAGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $141.58Fair Value $158.25Bull $207.08
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($8.62 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.31/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +8.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.0% vs 10.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 19%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 52% above its own trend.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Diagnostics & Research · 136 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−73.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.5% · Above median
Return on assets4.6% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−4.2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)21.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth17.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.42× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)42.0× · Pricier than median
P/B5.25× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)7.34× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA23.9× · Pricier than median
PEG1.43× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)85· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)42· sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)15· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lonza Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LZAGF
Frequently asked questions
Is Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $158.25 versus a price of $688.21, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LZAGF?
Our model-based fair value for Lonza Group Ltd is $158.25 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $688.21.
What is the quality score of LZAGF?
Lonza Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $158.25 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $141.58, optimistic scenario $207.08. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lonza Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $158.25, about −77% upside versus a price of $688.21 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $141.58, optimistic scenario $207.08. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
Lonza Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 6.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Lonza Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Lonza Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.73% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lonza Group Ltd it is $158.25 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $688.21. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lonza Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, LZAGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $688.21, fair value $158.25, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LZAGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($688.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($158.25). For Lonza Group Ltd the two are $529.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lonza Group Ltd worth?
The market values Lonza Group Ltd at about $48.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $688.21; our models calculate a fair value of $158.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LZAGF?
Our models span a range for Lonza Group Ltd: cautious scenario $141.58, base $158.25, optimistic $207.08 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $688.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LZAGF?
Lonza Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.0 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $158.25 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 5.3, P/S 7.3, EV/EBITDA 23.9.
What is the PEG ratio of LZAGF?
The PEG ratio of Lonza Group Ltd is 1.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lonza Group Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LZAGF from its 52-week high?
Lonza Group Ltd trades at $688.21, about 7% below its 52-week high of $743.50 and 23% above the low of $557.54 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $158.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lonza Group Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc, Danaher Corporation, WuXi AppTec Co, Agilent Technologies, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lonza Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $688.21, calculated fair value $158.25 (−77%), Quality Score 56/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LZAGF calculated?
We run Lonza Group Ltd through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $158.25, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Lonza Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $688.21. Our model-based fair value is $158.25, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lonza Group Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($207.08). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF) come from?
Earnings per share at Lonza Group Ltd grew +9.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin +3.4 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lonza Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
The market capitalisation of Lonza Group Ltd is $48.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lonza Group Ltd is 6.10 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
Earnings per share at Lonza Group Ltd are $16.40 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 42.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
The dividend yield of Lonza Group Ltd is 0.7% (payout 30.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
The net margin of Lonza Group Ltd is 14.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lonza Group Ltd is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lonza Group Ltd is 6.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
The operating margin of Lonza Group Ltd is 21.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
Revenue at Lonza Group Ltd is growing +17.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF)?
Earnings per share at Lonza Group Ltd are growing +31.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF) generate?
The free cash flow of Lonza Group Ltd is −CHF 217M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Lonza Group Ltd (LZAGF) carry?
The net debt of Lonza Group Ltd is CHF 3.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 3, 2026