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Data-driven stock valuation

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Healthcare · US · Market cap $199B · ISIN US8835561023

At a glance

TF Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc logo Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO · US
Price$613.78
Fair Value$308.19
Upside−49.8%
Quality64/100

A solid business, but trading 99% above our fair value of $308.19.

As of Sep 7, 2026, the fair value of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc is $308.19 per share against a price of $613.78, so the fair value sits 50% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 15.2% net margin
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·0.29% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
✓Wide moat 68/100
!Weak on dividend: 6 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $170.86 to $385.23

Fair value as of: Sep 7, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Share price +6.2% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($385.23). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($170.86 to $385.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$658.54 $388.84 Fair Value $308.19 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $388.84 – $658.54 · fair‑value band $170.86 – $385.23 · the $613.78 price screens above the $308.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 7, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO) currently trades at $613.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $308.19, implying the stock looks roughly 99.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $349.65 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $613.78 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $96.29, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc generated revenue of $45.2B at a net margin of 15.2%. Revenue grew 6.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.5%. Net debt stands at $31.0B. Fundamentals as of Sep 7, 2026

Scenario range: $170.86 (bear) to $385.23 (bull), the price of $613.78 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −54% fair-value upside, at −50%, TMO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($11.26 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $144.80 $311.30 $596.19 76
EPV $117.08 $148.26 $175.53 74
Growth DCF $143.93 $298.67 $557.61 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $144.80 $311.30 $596.19 76
Owner Earnings $202.78 $414.23 $776.04 72
5Y Revenue Exit $131.66 $280.84 $481.88 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $190.55 $400.76 $663.08 72
5Y P/E Exit $185.25 $389.97 $622.23 68
10Y Revenue Exit $127.59 $270.24 $485.40 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $173.14 $357.50 $635.28 65
10Y P/E Exit $169.65 $349.65 $601.50 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $123.27 $547.37 $749.68 64
Lynch FV $142.00 $202.86 $263.72 61
PEG = 1.0 $142.00 $202.86 $263.72 57
EPV $117.08 $148.26 $175.53 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $299.12 $398.83 $498.54 63
P/S Multiple $231.14 $308.19 $385.23 58
P/B Multiple $231.14 $308.19 $385.23 55
EV/EBIT $208.26 $301.00 $393.74 65
EV/EBITDA $237.71 $340.27 $442.82 67
EV/Revenue $128.62 $213.72 $298.82 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $71.86 $96.29 $143.71 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $143.93 $298.67 $557.61 74
Rev-Margin DCF $131.66 $277.47 $463.21 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $135.26 $164.02 $358.82 71
ROIC Compounder $117.08 $153.65 $221.35 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $238.91 $341.29 $443.68 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($349.65) versus Asset-Based ($96.29). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 33.7
P/S ratio 5.10 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $18.20 price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.7
Dividend yield 0.3% payout 9.7%
Net margin 15.1% FY2025
Return on equity 13.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 17.9% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $45.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.2% 3y avg −0.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +11.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $6.3B FY2025
Net debt $31.0B FY2025 · ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 71

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 31
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 70
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 75
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 97
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. provides life sciences solutions, analytical instruments, specialty diagnostics, and laboratory products and biopharma services in the North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and internationally.

Full company description

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. provides life sciences solutions, analytical instruments, specialty diagnostics, and laboratory products and biopharma services in the North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Life Sciences Solutions, Analytical Instruments, Specialty Diagnostics, and Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services. The Life Sciences Solutions segment includes reagents, instruments, and consumables for biological and medical research; discovery and production of drugs and vaccines; and diagnosis of infections and diseases. Its Analytical Instruments segment provides instruments, consumables, software, and services for pharmaceutical, biotechnology, academic, government, environmental, and other research and industrial markets, as well as clinical laboratories. The Specialty Diagnostics segment offers clinical diagnostics products, such as liquid ready-to-use and lyophilized immunodiagnostic reagent kits, calibrators, controls, protein detection assays, and instruments; immunodiagnostic offerings comprising developing, manufacturing, and marketing of complete blood-test systems for the clinical diagnosis and monitoring of allergy, asthma and autoimmune diseases; microbiology offerings, such as dehydrated and prepared culture media, collection and transport systems, instrumentation and consumables to detect pathogens in blood, diagnostic and rapid direct specimen tests, quality-control products, and associated products; transplant diagnostics products, including human leukocyte antigen typing and testing for the organ transplant market; and healthcare market channel offerings. Its Laboratory Products and Biopharma Services segment provides laboratory products, research and safety market channel, and pharma services and clinical research. Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc reported revenue of $44.6B in FY2025 versus $39.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $6.7B in FY2025, compounding −3.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 83/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$44.6B
Latest YoY
+3.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+2.3%
Dividend yield0.3%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 2.3% vs 10Y 13.8%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24.5% (2020) → 18.2% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop30% (2023) · in USD
Revenue +3.2%/yr
FY21 $39.2B
FY22 $44.9B
FY23 $42.9B
FY24 $42.9B
FY25 $44.6B
Net income −3.4%/yr
FY21 $7.7B
FY22 $7.0B
FY23 $6.0B
FY24 $6.3B
FY25 $6.7B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +14.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +11.3 %

of which total revenue +10.7 % · buybacks/dilution +0.5 %

EBIT margin +1.8 %
Tax rate −0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

TMO screens 99% overvalued. Compare with Danaher Corporation →

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Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TMO

Peer Group

Diagnostics & Research · 130 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 64 · Above median
Fair Value upside −50% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 15% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.67× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 33.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.74× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.41× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 31.7× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 20.0× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.74× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+15.8 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+6.7 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+4.4 %
FCF yield on price2.72 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.9 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE31 · sector 30
PAST54 · sector 12
HEALTH66 · sector 96
DIVIDEND6 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 7, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Danaher Corporation DHR $207.66 $103.88 −50%
WuXi AppTec Co 2359 HK$189.30 HK$150.16 −21%
Lonza Group LONN CHF 576.60 CHF 259.80 −55%
IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX $556.69 $255.77 −54%
Agilent Technologies, Inc A $149.93 $61.53 −59%
Waters Corporation WAT $416.15 $121.96 −71%
IQVIA Holdings IQV $236.66 $132.17 −44%
Illumina, Inc ILMN $215.59 $95.51 −56%
Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD $1,419 $615.78 −57%
Quest Diagnostics Incorporated DGX $237.14 $162.50 −31%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $308.19 versus a price of $613.78, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TMO?
Our model-based fair value for Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc is $308.19 (as of Sep 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $613.78.
What is the quality score of TMO?
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $308.19 (as of Sep 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $170.86, optimistic scenario $385.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $308.19, about −50% upside versus a price of $613.78 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $170.86, optimistic scenario $385.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO)?
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $45.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 7, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TMO?
The net profit margin of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc is about 15.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 15.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc pay a dividend?
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.29% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc (TMO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +15.8 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.9 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Sep 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TMO use?
Our models discount Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.87, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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