MODEC, Inc (MDIKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of MODEC, Inc $53.96, price $61.38, upside -12.1%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
17‑month range $29.88 – $93.70 · fair‑value band $37.78 – $94.84 · the $61.38 price screens above the $53.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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MODEC, Inc. operates as engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) general contractor of floating production systems in Brazil, Guyana, Senegal, Cote d' Ivoire, Ghana, Mexico, and internationally.
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MODEC, Inc. operates as engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) general contractor of floating production systems in Brazil, Guyana, Senegal, Cote d' Ivoire, Ghana, Mexico, and internationally. The company builds, leases, and operates floating production storage and offloading, as well as floating storage and offloading; tension leg platforms; production semi-submersible platforms; floating liquefied natural gas floating production facilities. It is also involved in the digital and analytics business; provision of supplier relationship management and supplier registration supply chain services. MODEC, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
MODEC, Inc (MDIKY) currently trades at $61.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $53.96, implying the stock looks roughly 13.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $93.94 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the $61.38 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $14.24, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $37.78 (bear) to $94.84 (bull), the price of $61.38 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
MODEC, Inc reported revenue of $4.6B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2022, a compound +18.7%/yr. Reported net income was $361M in FY2025, compounding +112.9%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $6.4B · P/E ratio 11.6 · P/S ratio 0.92 · EPS (TTM) $5.28 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 32.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −12%, MDIKY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $37.78Fair Value $53.96Bull $94.84
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.22 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +72.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+71.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.4%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 7%
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2025, which sits 273% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Equipment & Services · 193 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−12% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)32% · Top 25%
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Equipment & Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MODEC, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MDIKY
Frequently asked questions
Is MODEC, Inc (MDIKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $53.96 versus a price of $61.38, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MDIKY?
Our model-based fair value for MODEC, Inc is $53.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $61.38.
What is the quality score of MDIKY?
MODEC, Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $53.96 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $37.78, optimistic scenario $94.84. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MODEC, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $53.96, about −12% upside versus a price of $61.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $37.78, optimistic scenario $94.84. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
MODEC, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does MODEC, Inc pay a dividend?
MODEC, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MODEC, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -0.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +18.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MDIKY use?
Our models discount MODEC, Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MODEC, Inc that is -0.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MODEC, Inc (MDIKY) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at MODEC, Inc grew +18.7 % a year. The price currently implies -0.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MODEC, Inc (-0.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.64 %: that much free cash flow MODEC, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MODEC, Inc it is $53.96 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $61.38. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MODEC, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, MDIKY trades above its calculated fair value: price $61.38, fair value $53.96, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MDIKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($61.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($53.96). For MODEC, Inc the two are $7.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MODEC, Inc worth?
The market values MODEC, Inc at about $6.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $61.38; our models calculate a fair value of $53.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MDIKY?
Our models span a range for MODEC, Inc: cautious scenario $37.78, base $53.96, optimistic $94.84 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $61.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MDIKY?
MODEC, Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $53.96 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.4, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 13.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for MODEC, Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 32.4%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MDIKY from its 52-week high?
MODEC, Inc trades at $61.38, about 34% below its 52-week high of $93.70 and 81% above the low of $34.00 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $53.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MODEC, Inc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value SLB N.V, Baker Hughes Company, TechnipFMC plc, Halliburton Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MODEC, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $61.38, calculated fair value $53.96 (−12%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MDIKY calculated?
We run MODEC, Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $53.96, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MODEC, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $61.38. Our model-based fair value is $53.96, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MODEC, Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($37.78 to $94.84) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of MODEC, Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
The market capitalisation of MODEC, Inc is $6.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MODEC, Inc is 0.92 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
Earnings per share at MODEC, Inc are $5.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
The dividend yield of MODEC, Inc is 0.4% (payout 5.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
The net margin of MODEC, Inc is 7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MODEC, Inc is 32.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MODEC, Inc is 2.5% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
The operating margin of MODEC, Inc is 7.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
Revenue at MODEC, Inc is growing +23.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MODEC, Inc (MDIKY)?
Earnings per share at MODEC, Inc are growing +79.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026