Markel Group (MKLC34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Markel Group BRL 363, price BRL 450, upside -19.4%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$204.20 – R$605.00 · fair‑value band R$329.77 – R$455.74 · the R$450.12 price screens above the R$363.04 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Markel Group Inc. engages in the insurance business in the United States, the United Kingdom, Bermuda, Germany, rest of the European Union, Canada, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Markel Insurance, Industrial, Financial, and Consumer and Other segments.
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Markel Group Inc. engages in the insurance business in the United States, the United Kingdom, Bermuda, Germany, rest of the European Union, Canada, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through Markel Insurance, Industrial, Financial, and Consumer and Other segments. The company offers general and professional liability, specialty programs, workers' compensation, and marine and energy insurance; personal lines insurance, such as property coverage for homeowners; property insurance coverages, including fire, windstorm, hail, water damage, and catastrophe-exposed property risks, such as earthquake and wind; and credit and surety products. It also distributes exterior building products, such as siding, windows, doors, roofing, and gutters; invests in asset and wealth management companies; engages in the homebuilding of single-family homes, townhouses, and condominiums; designs and provides leather handbags and accessories; owns and operates manufactured housing communities; and sponsors teachers for placement. In addition, the company offers structural and architectural precast concrete; ornamental plants; industrial bakery equipment; over-the-road car-hauling equipment, such as trailers; cutter suction and auger dredges; and laminated oak and composite flooring for trailers. Further, it provides fire protection, life safety, and low-voltage solutions; heavy lift crawler cranes; erosion control and stormwater management; gas containment and transportation equipment; wall panel systems and dorm room furniture; insurance-linked securities investment and insurance management; equipment leasing; fronting and automobile collateral protection coverage; information technology consulting; data collection and pricing intelligence solutions; and concierge healthcare membership services. The company was formerly known as Markel Corporation and changed its name to Markel Group Inc. in May 2023. Markel Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Markel Group (MKLC34) currently trades at R$450.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$363.04, 19.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$543.29 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the R$450.12 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$260.00, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$329.77 (bear) to R$455.74 (bull), the price of R$450.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Markel Group reported revenue of $16.6B in FY2025 versus $12.9B in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2025, compounding −3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$124B (≈ $23.7B) · P/E ratio 12.6 · P/S ratio 1.60 · EPS (TTM) R$35.83 · Net margin 12.7% · Return on equity 10.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% · Operating margin −9.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −19%, MKLC34 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$329.77Fair Value R$363.04Bull R$455.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$27.09 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.83/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 19%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (90 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Markel Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MKLC34
Frequently asked questions
Is Markel Group (MKLC34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$363.04 versus a price of R$450.12, about −19% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MKLC34?
Our model-based fair value for Markel Group is R$363.04 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$450.12.
What is the quality score of MKLC34?
Markel Group has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Markel Group (MKLC34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$363.04 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$329.77, optimistic scenario R$455.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Markel Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$363.04, about −19% upside versus a price of R$450.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$329.77, optimistic scenario R$455.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Markel Group (MKLC34)?
Markel Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Markel Group (MKLC34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Markel Group it is R$363.04 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$450.12. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Markel Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, MKLC34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$450.12, fair value R$363.04, a gap of about −19% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MKLC34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$450.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$363.04). For Markel Group the two are R$87.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Markel Group worth?
The market values Markel Group at about R$124B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$450.12; our models calculate a fair value of R$363.04 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MKLC34?
Our models span a range for Markel Group: cautious scenario R$329.77, base R$363.04, optimistic R$455.74 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$450.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is MKLC34 from its 52-week high?
Markel Group trades at R$450.12, about 26% below its 52-week high of R$605.00 and 3% above the low of R$436.00 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$363.04 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Markel Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Markel Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$450.12, calculated fair value R$363.04 (−19%), Quality Score 56/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MKLC34 calculated?
We run Markel Group through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$363.04, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Markel Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Markel Group (MKLC34)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was R$450.12. Our model-based fair value is R$363.04, about −19% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Markel Group right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Markel Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Markel Group (MKLC34)?
The market capitalisation of Markel Group is R$124B (≈ $23.7B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Markel Group (MKLC34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Markel Group is 12.6. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Markel Group (MKLC34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Markel Group is 1.60 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Markel Group (MKLC34)?
Earnings per share at Markel Group are R$35.83 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Markel Group (MKLC34)?
The net margin of Markel Group is 12.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Markel Group (MKLC34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Markel Group is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Markel Group (MKLC34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Markel Group is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Markel Group (MKLC34)?
The operating margin of Markel Group is −9.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Markel Group (MKLC34)?
Revenue at Markel Group is growing −16.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Markel Group (MKLC34)?
Earnings per share at Markel Group are growing +95.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Markel Group (MKLC34) generate?
The free cash flow of Markel Group is $2.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Markel Group (MKLC34) carry?
The net debt of Markel Group is $339M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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