Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation stock €4.56, price €8.87, upside -48.6%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €4.37 – €32.46 · fair‑value band €2.84 – €7.21 · the €8.87 price screens above the €4.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation manufactures and sells aluminum and other capacitors, precision mechanical components, and electronics equipment in Japan, China, the Americas, Europe, and internationally.
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The company offers aluminum electrolytic capacitors, conductive polymer aluminum solid capacitors, and conductive polymer hybrid aluminum electrolytic capacitors.
It also provides multilayer ceramic capacitors, film capacitors, supercapacitors, metal oxide varistors, choke coils and cores/reactors, and camera modules, as well as silicon wafers and wafer related products. The company was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ) currently trades at €8.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.56, 48.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €13.74 per share, and 6 of the 22 models we run sit above the €8.87 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €0.8300, and 16 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €2.84 (bear) to €7.21 (bull), the price of €8.87 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation reported revenue of ¥137B in FY2026 versus ¥140B in FY2022, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.4B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap €243M Micro · P/E ratio 23.3 · P/S ratio 0.40 · EPS (TTM) €0.3800 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −49%, NCZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€2.84Fair Value €4.56Bull€7.21
Price €8.87 · Upside -48.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1757 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF€2.49€3.88€6.0976
Growth DCF€2.62€3.92€5.8475
Residual Income€8.72€8.54€8.5673
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€2.49€3.88€6.0976
Owner Earningsn/an/a€0.780070
5Y Revenue Exit€2.66€5.04€8.4867
5Y EBITDA Exit€10.83€19.15€30.1570
5Y P/E Exit€4.21€7.71€11.8966
10Y Revenue Exit€2.43€3.96€5.5864
10Y EBITDA Exit€6.73€11.30€16.2665
10Y P/E Exit€3.34€5.36€7.2661
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd€3.34€4.08€4.5965
EPV€0.8300€1.28€1.6470
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM€0.7800€0.8300€0.900067
DDM Multi-Stage€0.7800€0.8900€1.0465
Multiples
P/E Multiple€10.31€13.74€17.1863
P/S Multiple€6.26€8.35€10.4358
P/B Multiple€58.31€77.75€97.1855
EV/EBIT€2.37€6.57€10.7661
EV/EBITDA€15.03€23.45€31.8666
EV/Revenuen/an/a€1.6050
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)€6.48€8.68€12.9654
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€2.62€3.92€5.8475
Rev-Margin DCF€2.66€5.19€8.3168
Economic Profit
Residual Income€8.72€8.54€8.5673
ROIC Compounder€0.8300€1.28€1.6468
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E€7.21€10.30€13.3965
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.5%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−3.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
2026 sits 73% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.4% a year for the price and +6.2% for the forecasts.
Compare Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Components · 647 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−48.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.0% · Below median
Return on assets1.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)4.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)23.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.57× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)23.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B0.68× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.30× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow16.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA4.7× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 64
PAST (return on equity)24· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)71· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)17· sector 25
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.56 versus a price of €8.87, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NCZ?
Our model-based fair value for Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation is €4.56 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €8.87.
What is the quality score of NCZ?
Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.56 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €2.84, optimistic scenario €7.21. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.56, about −49% upside versus a price of €8.87 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €2.84, optimistic scenario €7.21. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥144B (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation pay a dividend?
Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 0.84% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +25.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew -0.6 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NCZ use?
Our models discount Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation at 11.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.31, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation that is +25.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation grew -0.6 % a year. The price currently implies +25.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (+25.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.86 %: that much free cash flow Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation it is €4.56 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of €8.87. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, NCZ trades above its calculated fair value: price €8.87, fair value €4.56, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NCZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€8.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.56). For Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation the two are €4.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation worth?
The market values Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation at about €243M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is €8.87; our models calculate a fair value of €4.56 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NCZ?
Our models span a range for Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation: cautious scenario €2.84, base €4.56, optimistic €7.21 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price €8.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NCZ?
Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.3 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €4.56 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 6.0%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NCZ from its 52-week high?
Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation trades at €8.87, about 72% below its 52-week high of €32.20 and 38% above the low of €6.41 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.56 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Amphenol Corporation, Delta Electronics, Inc, Corning Incorporated, Samsung Electro-Mechanics Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price €8.87, calculated fair value €4.56 (−49%), Quality Score 40/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NCZ calculated?
We run Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €4.56, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €8.87. Our model-based fair value is €4.56, about −49% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€7.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€2.84 to €7.21) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
The market capitalisation of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation is €243M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation is 0.40 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation are €0.3800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
The dividend yield of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation is 0.8% (payout 19.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
The net margin of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation is 1.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
The operating margin of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
Revenue at Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation is growing +23.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ)?
Earnings per share at Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation are growing +54.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation (NCZ) carry?
The net debt of Nippon Chemi-Con Corporation is ¥49.2B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 19.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 27, 2026