Minerva Neurosciences, Inc (NERV) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $211M
Minerva Neurosciences, Inc
NERV · US
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +6.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 70% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (22/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.34 – $28.08 · fair‑value band $1.28 – $1.50 · the $4.54 price screens above the $1.37 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Minerva Neurosciences, Inc (NERV) currently trades at $4.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.37, implying the stock looks roughly 69.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 22/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $17.3M. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.28 (bear case) to $1.50 (bull case); at $4.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 190% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -63% fair-value upside, at -70%, NERV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 2 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Minerva Neurosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of product candidates for the treatment of central nervous system diseases. Its lead product candidate is roluperidone, which is in Phase 3 confirmatory trial for the treatment of negative symptoms in patients with schizophrenia.
Full company description
Minerva Neurosciences, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of product candidates for the treatment of central nervous system diseases. Its lead product candidate is roluperidone, which is in Phase 3 confirmatory trial for the treatment of negative symptoms in patients with schizophrenia. Minerva Neurosciences, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Burlington, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Minerva Neurosciences, Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$293M in FY2025.
NERV screens 70% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 616 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$45.70 | HK$30.58 | -33% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$95.55 | HK$19.68 | -79% |
| Genmab A/S GMAB | kr 2,104 | kr 250.07 | -88% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$4.87 | HK$3.37 | -31% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥131.87 | ¥23.19 | -82% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 314,000 KRW | 39,476 KRW | -87% |
| Biocon Limited BIOCON | ₹417.50 | ₹52.10 | -88% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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