Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Noah Holdings Ltd $15.64, price $7.79, upside +100.8%, quality 74 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.56 – $33.38 · fair‑value band $7.26 – $20.35 · the $7.79 price screens below the $15.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
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Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and corporate entities in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally.
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Noah Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a wealth and asset management service provider with the focus on investment and asset allocation services for high net worth individuals and corporate entities in Mainland of China, Hong Kong, and internationally. It operates through Domestic Public Securities, Domestic Asset Management, Domestic Insurance, Overseas Wealth Management, Overseas Asset Management, and Overseas Insurance and Comprehensive Services segments. The company offers mutual fund products, which are publicly-raised, public securities investment funds, including money market funds; private secondary products; private equity products; investor education; trust services; and insurance products by referring clients, as well as individual whole life insurance, participating insurance, and individual health insurance products. It also provides domestic and overseas private equity, FOFs, public securities, real estate, and multi-strategy and other investments, as well as manages feeder funds. Noah Holdings Limited was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH) currently trades at $7.79, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.64, implying the stock looks roughly 50.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $35.60 per share, and 13 of the 13 models we run sit above the $7.79 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $13.62, and 0 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $7.26 (bear) to $20.35 (bull), the price of $7.79 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Noah Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 2.6B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −11.7%/yr. Reported net income was 559M CNY in FY2025, compounding −19.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $669M · P/E ratio 6.9 · P/S ratio 1.48 · EPS (TTM) $1.13 · Dividend yield 6.8% · Net margin 21.4% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 101%, NOAH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $7.26Fair Value $15.64Bull $20.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.1% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−2.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−13.5% vs 14.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.38% → 30%
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 647 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score75 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+101.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.3% · Below median
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)20.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)37.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.8% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
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Is Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.64 versus a price of $7.79, about +101% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NOAH?
Our model-based fair value for Noah Holdings Ltd is $15.64 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.79.
What is the quality score of NOAH?
Noah Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.64 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.26, optimistic scenario $20.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Noah Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.64, about +101% upside versus a price of $7.79 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $7.26, optimistic scenario $20.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
Noah Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.6B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Noah Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Noah Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.77% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Noah Holdings Ltd it is $15.64 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of $7.79. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Noah Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, NOAH trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.79, fair value $15.64, a gap of about +101% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOAH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.79); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.64). For Noah Holdings Ltd the two are $7.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Noah Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Noah Holdings Ltd at about $669M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is $7.79; our models calculate a fair value of $15.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOAH?
Our models span a range for Noah Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario $7.26, base $15.64, optimistic $20.35 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price $7.79). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NOAH?
Noah Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.9 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7.
What is the PEG ratio of NOAH?
The PEG ratio of Noah Holdings Ltd is 0.75 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 1, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Noah Holdings Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 5.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOAH from its 52-week high?
Noah Holdings Ltd trades at $7.79, about 37% below its 52-week high of $12.32 and at the low of $7.78 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Noah Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Noah Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price $7.79, calculated fair value $15.64 (+101%), Quality Score 74/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOAH calculated?
We run Noah Holdings Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Noah Holdings Ltd currently trades 50 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $7.79. Our model-based fair value is $15.64, about +101% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Noah Holdings Ltd right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (74/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The model range is unusually wide ($7.26 to $20.35). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH) come from?
Earnings per share at Noah Holdings Ltd grew +16.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +17.6 %, EBIT margin +0.2 %, tax rate −1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Noah Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
The market capitalisation of Noah Holdings Ltd is $669M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Noah Holdings Ltd is 1.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
Earnings per share at Noah Holdings Ltd are $1.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
The dividend yield of Noah Holdings Ltd is 6.8% (payout 46.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
The net margin of Noah Holdings Ltd is 21.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Noah Holdings Ltd is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Noah Holdings Ltd is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
The operating margin of Noah Holdings Ltd is 37.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
Revenue at Noah Holdings Ltd is growing +1.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH)?
Earnings per share at Noah Holdings Ltd are growing −14.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH) generate?
The free cash flow of Noah Holdings Ltd is 842M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Noah Holdings Ltd (NOAH) hold?
Noah Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 4.3B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 1, 2026