NI Holdings Inc (NODK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of NI Holdings Inc $2.43, price $14.99, upside -83.8%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.08 – $20.32 · fair‑value band $1.25 – $3.59 · the $14.99 price screens above the $2.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
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NI Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, underwrites property and casualty insurance products in the United States.
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NI Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, underwrites property and casualty insurance products in the United States. Its products include private passenger auto, homeowners, farm owners, commercial multi-peril, crop hail, excess liability, dwelling, and federal multi-peril crop insurance policies, as well as non-standard automobile insurance policies. The company was founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Fargo, North Dakota. NI Holdings, Inc. is a subsidiary of Nodak Mutual Group, Inc.
Stock analysis
NI Holdings Inc (NODK) currently trades at $14.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.43, 83.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $1.25 (bear) to $3.59 (bull), the price of $14.99 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
NI Holdings Inc reported revenue of $285M in FY2025 versus $324M in FY2021, a compound −3.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$10.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $315M · P/S ratio 1.19 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2100 · Net margin −3.7% · Return on equity −1.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.8% · Operating margin 26.4% · Revenue (TTM) $273M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −84%, NODK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.25Fair Value $2.43Bull $3.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.1/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−12.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.9% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
17.2% (2020) → −4.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 116 stocks
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Is NI Holdings Inc (NODK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.43 versus a price of $14.99, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NODK?
Our model-based fair value for NI Holdings Inc is $2.43 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.99.
What is the quality score of NODK?
NI Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.43 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.25, optimistic scenario $3.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NI Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.43, about −84% upside versus a price of $14.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.25, optimistic scenario $3.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
NI Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $273M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NI Holdings Inc it is $2.43 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $14.99. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NI Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, NODK trades above its calculated fair value: price $14.99, fair value $2.43, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NODK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.43). For NI Holdings Inc the two are $12.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NI Holdings Inc worth?
The market values NI Holdings Inc at about $315M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $14.99; our models calculate a fair value of $2.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NODK?
Our models span a range for NI Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $1.25, base $2.43, optimistic $3.59 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $14.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
Balance-sheet figures for NI Holdings Inc (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −1.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NODK from its 52-week high?
NI Holdings Inc trades at $14.99, about 8% below its 52-week high of $16.33 and 20% above the low of $12.48 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NI Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Progressive Corporation, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NI Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $14.99, calculated fair value $2.43 (−84%), Quality Score 51/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NODK calculated?
We run NI Holdings Inc through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. NI Holdings Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $14.99. Our model-based fair value is $2.43, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NI Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($1.25 to $3.59). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of NI Holdings Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
The market capitalisation of NI Holdings Inc is $315M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NI Holdings Inc is 1.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
Earnings per share at NI Holdings Inc are $−0.2100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
The net margin of NI Holdings Inc is −3.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NI Holdings Inc is −1.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NI Holdings Inc is −0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
The operating margin of NI Holdings Inc is 26.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
Revenue at NI Holdings Inc is growing −16.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NI Holdings Inc (NODK)?
Earnings per share at NI Holdings Inc are growing +94.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does NI Holdings Inc (NODK) generate?
The free cash flow of NI Holdings Inc is −$15.5M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does NI Holdings Inc (NODK) hold?
NI Holdings Inc holds more cash than debt, $51.7M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 13, 2026