Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Nomad Foods Ltd $18.97, price $10.71, upside +77.1%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.09 – $25.98 · fair‑value band $11.54 – $29.39 · the $10.71 price screens below the $18.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Nomad Foods Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes a range of frozen food products in the United Kingdom and internationally.
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Nomad Foods Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, markets, and distributes a range of frozen food products in the United Kingdom and internationally. The company offers frozen fish products, including fish fingers, coated fish, and natural fish; ready-to-cook vegetable products, such as peas and spinach; and frozen poultry and meat products, comprising nuggets, grills, and burgers. It also provides meal products that contain ready-to-cook noodles, pasta, lasagna, pancakes, and other ready-made meals; ice creams, such as in-home and out-of-home ice creams; and other products comprising soups, pizzas, bakery goods, and meat substitutes. The company sells its products to supermarkets and food retail chains primarily under the Birds Eye, Green Cuisine, iglo, Findus, Aunt Bessie's, Goodfella's, Frikom, Ledo, La Cocinera, and Belviva brand names. Nomad Foods Limited was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Woking, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD) currently trades at $10.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.97, implying the stock looks roughly 43.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $16.86 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the $10.71 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $5.65, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.54 (bear) to $29.39 (bull), the price of $10.71 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nomad Foods Ltd reported revenue of €3.0B in FY2025 versus €2.6B in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was €137M in FY2025, compounding −6.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B · P/E ratio 10.2 · P/S ratio 0.46 · EPS (TTM) $1.05 · Dividend yield 5.3% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 77%, NOMD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $11.54Fair Value $18.97Bull $29.39
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3519 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.51/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2% vs 17%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.0% a year for the price and −1.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside+77% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.88× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)10.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B0.64× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.97 versus a price of $10.71, about +77% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NOMD?
Our model-based fair value for Nomad Foods Ltd is $18.97 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.71.
What is the quality score of NOMD?
Nomad Foods Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.97 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.54, optimistic scenario $29.39. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nomad Foods Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.97, about +77% upside versus a price of $10.71 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.54, optimistic scenario $29.39. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
Nomad Foods Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Nomad Foods Ltd pay a dividend?
Nomad Foods Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nomad Foods Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +3.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NOMD use?
Our models discount Nomad Foods Ltd at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nomad Foods Ltd that is +3.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nomad Foods Ltd grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies +3.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nomad Foods Ltd (+3.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.84 %: that much free cash flow Nomad Foods Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nomad Foods Ltd it is $18.97 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $10.71. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nomad Foods Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, NOMD trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.71, fair value $18.97, a gap of about +77% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NOMD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.97). For Nomad Foods Ltd the two are $8.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nomad Foods Ltd worth?
The market values Nomad Foods Ltd at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $10.71; our models calculate a fair value of $18.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NOMD?
Our models span a range for Nomad Foods Ltd: cautious scenario $11.54, base $18.97, optimistic $29.39 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $10.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NOMD?
Nomad Foods Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.97 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 0.6, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
What is the PEG ratio of NOMD?
The PEG ratio of Nomad Foods Ltd is 1.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nomad Foods Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.88 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NOMD from its 52-week high?
Nomad Foods Ltd trades at $10.71, about 16% below its 52-week high of $12.81 and 18% above the low of $9.09 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nomad Foods Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nomad Foods Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $10.71, calculated fair value $18.97 (+77%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NOMD calculated?
We run Nomad Foods Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Nomad Foods Ltd currently trades 77 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $10.71. Our model-based fair value is $18.97, about +77% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nomad Foods Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.54). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($11.54 to $29.39) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Nomad Foods Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
The market capitalisation of Nomad Foods Ltd is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nomad Foods Ltd is 0.46 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
Earnings per share at Nomad Foods Ltd are $1.05 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
The dividend yield of Nomad Foods Ltd is 5.3% (payout 54.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
The net margin of Nomad Foods Ltd is 4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nomad Foods Ltd is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nomad Foods Ltd is 5.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
The operating margin of Nomad Foods Ltd is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
Revenue at Nomad Foods Ltd is growing −5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD)?
Earnings per share at Nomad Foods Ltd are growing −4.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nomad Foods Ltd (NOMD) carry?
The net debt of Nomad Foods Ltd is €2.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026