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Data-driven stock valuation

Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR (NRILY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Technology · US · Market cap $15.9B · ISIN US65538C2061

At a glance

NR Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR logo Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR NRILY · US
Price$33.34
Fair Value$24.01
Upside−28.0%
Quality69/100

A solid business, but trading 39% above our fair value of $24.01.

As of Sep 8, 2026, the fair value of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is $24.01 per share against a price of $33.34, so the fair value sits 28% below the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +9.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.9% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.72% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Narrow moat 42/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 14 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $16.60 to $31.42

Fair value as of: Sep 8, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Sep 8, 2026, revised from $22.90 to $24.01 (+4.8%) since Aug 29, 2026. Share price +15.1% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($31.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($16.60 to $31.42) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$42.12 $20.24 Fair Value $24.01 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $20.24 – $42.12 · fair‑value band $16.60 – $31.42 · the $33.34 price screens above the $24.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 8, 2026.

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Analysis

Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR (NRILY) currently trades at $33.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.01, implying the stock looks roughly 38.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $124.01 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the $33.34 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $5.57, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR generated revenue of ¥815B at a net margin of 1.9%. Revenue grew 8.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.6%. Net debt stands at ¥104B. Fundamentals as of Sep 8, 2026

Scenario range: $16.60 (bear) to $31.42 (bull), the price of $33.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 79% fair-value upside, at −28%, NRILY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $87.18 $137.16 $213.30 79
Growth DCF $88.77 $133.08 $196.50 78
Owner Earnings $35.52 $56.91 $89.50 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $87.18 $137.16 $213.30 79
Owner Earnings $35.52 $56.91 $89.50 75
5Y Revenue Exit $77.42 $123.71 $182.38 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $118.82 $201.05 $297.02 74
5Y P/E Exit $38.80 $51.57 $64.17 72
10Y Revenue Exit $77.70 $120.78 $177.92 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $106.48 $174.44 $265.31 67
10Y P/E Exit $55.50 $70.74 $87.81 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $5.83 $18.01 $23.93 65
Lynch FV $3.90 $5.57 $7.23 61
PEG = 1.0 $3.90 $5.57 $7.23 57
EPV $56.52 $66.46 $75.16 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $18.01 $24.01 $30.01 63
P/S Multiple $10.93 $14.58 $18.22 58
P/B Multiple $10.93 $14.58 $18.22 55
EV/EBIT $153.18 $205.29 $257.39 66
EV/EBITDA $153.01 $205.05 $257.10 67
EV/Revenue $75.89 $109.76 $143.63 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $11.55 $15.48 $23.10 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $88.77 $133.08 $196.50 78
Rev-Margin DCF $77.42 $124.01 $177.54 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $17.07 $16.80 $14.86 71
ROIC Compounder $60.69 $77.07 $95.75 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $14.46 $20.66 $26.86 67

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($124.01) versus Earnings-Based ($5.57). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 208.4
P/S ratio 3.90 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.1600 price ÷ EPS = P/E 208.4
Dividend yield 1.7%
Net margin 1.9% FY2026
Return on equity 3.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 14.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 17.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ¥815B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.0% 3y avg +7.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +13.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ¥150B FY2026
Net debt ¥104B FY2026 · ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 8, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 69/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 85
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 70
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. engages in the provision of consulting, financial information technology (IT) solutions, Industrial IT solutions, and IT Infrastructure services in Japan and internationally. The Consulting segment offers management, organizational reform, and system consulting services for all aspects of IT management.

Full company description

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. engages in the provision of consulting, financial information technology (IT) solutions, Industrial IT solutions, and IT Infrastructure services in Japan and internationally. The Consulting segment offers management, organizational reform, and system consulting services for all aspects of IT management. The Financial IT Solutions segment provides systems consulting, systems development and operation services, and shared systems, primarily to financial industry clients in the securities, insurance, and banking industries. The Industrial IT Solutions segment offers system consulting, development, system management, and operation services to the distribution, manufacturing, service, and public sectors. The IT infrastructure Services segment engages in the data center operation activities and construction of IT platforms and networks to the Financial IT and Industrial IT Solutions segments, as well as providing IT platform solutions and information security services to clients of various industries. Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥864B in FY2026 versus ¥612B in FY2022, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥16.2B in FY2026, compounding −31.0%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
¥864B
Latest YoY
+12.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (21Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in JPY) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−19.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−21.0%
Dividend yield1.7%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −21.0% vs 10Y −6.8%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15.9% (2021) → 19.0% (2026) · rising
Worst earnings drop83% (2026) · in JPY
Revenue +9.0%/yr
FY22 ¥612B
FY23 ¥692B
FY24 ¥737B
FY25 ¥765B
FY26 ¥864B
Net income −31.0%/yr
FY22 ¥71.4B
FY23 ¥76.3B
FY24 ¥79.6B
FY25 ¥93.8B
FY26 ¥16.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +7.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +10.4 %

of which total revenue +7.3 % · buybacks/dilution +2.8 %

EBIT margin +3.1 %
Tax rate −1.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −4.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

NRILY screens 39% overvalued. Compare with International Business Machines Corporation →

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Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR · Fair Value
$24.01 −39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NRILY

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Information Technology Services · 487 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −31% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.44× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 208.4× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.38× · Cheapest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+4.0 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+9.4 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+8.2 %
FCF yield on price5.12 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.1 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 33
FUTURE40 · sector 31
PAST14 · sector 34
HEALTH78 · sector 97
DIVIDEND34 · sector 36

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 8, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $234.89 $175.76 −25%
Accenture plc ACN $186.72 $334.27 +79%
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,302 ₹3,473 +51%
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,088 ₹1,948 +79%
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,293 ₹1,722 +33%
Fiserv, Inc FI C$5.13 C$8.07 +57%
Wipro Limited WIT $1.83 $3.51 +92%
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc FIS $41.34 $19.28 −53%
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH $64.04 $132.01 +106%
Capgemini SE CAP €109.45 €222.79 +104%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR (NRILY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.01 versus a price of $33.34, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NRILY?
Our model-based fair value for Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is $24.01 (as of Sep 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $33.34.
What is the quality score of NRILY?
Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR (NRILY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.01 (as of Sep 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.60, optimistic scenario $31.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.01, about −28% upside versus a price of $33.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $16.60, optimistic scenario $31.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR (NRILY)?
Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥815B (latest available figure, as of Sep 8, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of NRILY?
The net profit margin of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is about 1.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR (NRILY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +4.0 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.1 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Sep 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NRILY use?
Our models discount Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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