Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Nomura Research Institute Ltd stock $15.82, price $39.98, upside -60.4%, quality 70 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $20.24 – $42.13 · fair‑value band $11.87 – $19.78 · the $39.98 price screens above the $15.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
Follow Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. engages in the provision of consulting, financial information technology (IT) solutions, Industrial IT solutions, and IT Infrastructure services in Japan and internationally.
Show moreShow less
The Consulting segment offers management, organizational reform, and system consulting services for all aspects of IT management.
The Financial IT Solutions segment provides systems consulting, systems development and operation services, and shared systems, primarily to financial industry clients in the securities, insurance, and banking industries.
The Industrial IT Solutions segment offers system consulting, development, system management, and operation services to the distribution, manufacturing, service, and public sectors.
The IT infrastructure Services segment engages in the data center operation activities and construction of IT platforms and networks to the Financial IT and Industrial IT Solutions segments, as well as providing IT platform solutions and information security services to clients of various industries.
Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY) currently trades at $39.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.82, 60.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $27.86 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the $39.98 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.78, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $11.87 (bear) to $19.78 (bull), the price of $39.98 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥864B in FY2026 versus ¥612B in FY2022, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥16.2B in FY2026, compounding −31.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $22.7B Large · P/E ratio 190.4 · P/S ratio 3.57 · EPS (TTM) $0.2100 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 1.9% · Return on equity 4.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 77% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at −60%, NRILY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$11.87Fair Value $15.82Bull$19.78
Price $39.98 · Upside -60.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.79/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−19.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−20.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−20.8% vs −6.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 19%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.9% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (51 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Recurring back-office platforms serve a stable base of Japan's financial clients, yet persistently low margins and ROE reflect limited durable advantage in commoditized IT services.
Main risk: Swings in new IT spending beyond the recurring platforms could limit predictable expansion and hit revenue stability in financial solutions.
Nomura Research Institute runs shared back-office platforms that serve a large part of Japan's financial sector. Recent results confirmed full-year guidance with solid growth in financial IT solutions driven by ongoing digital projects. Our models currently see it as overvalued. Will the recurring nature of those client platforms deliver more predictable expansion than swings in new IT spending allow?
Compare Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 462 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−60.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.6% · Below median
Return on assets1.7% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)19.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)190.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B8.18× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.30× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow23.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA17.1× · Pricier than median
PEG0.39× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)38· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)18· sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)78· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)25· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NRILY
Frequently asked questions
Is Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $15.82 versus a price of $39.98, about −60% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of NRILY?
Our model-based fair value for Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is $15.82 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $39.98.
What is the quality score of NRILY?
Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $15.82 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.87, optimistic scenario $19.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $15.82, about −60% upside versus a price of $39.98 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $11.87, optimistic scenario $19.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥829B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 1.23% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +8.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NRILY use?
Our models discount Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR that is +8.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR grew +9.4 % a year. The price currently implies +8.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR (+8.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.22 %: that much free cash flow Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR it is $15.82 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $39.98. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, NRILY trades above its calculated fair value: price $39.98, fair value $15.82, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NRILY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($39.98); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($15.82). For Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR the two are $24.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR at about $22.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $39.98; our models calculate a fair value of $15.82 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NRILY?
Our models span a range for Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $11.87, base $15.82, optimistic $19.78 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $39.98). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NRILY?
Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 190.4 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $15.82 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 8.2, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 17.1.
What is the PEG ratio of NRILY?
The PEG ratio of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is 0.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 4.6%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NRILY from its 52-week high?
Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR trades at $39.98, about 2% below its 52-week high of $40.62 and 77% above the low of $22.63 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $15.82 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $39.98, calculated fair value $15.82 (−60%), Quality Score 70/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NRILY calculated?
We run Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $15.82, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $39.98. Our model-based fair value is $15.82, about −60% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR right now?
A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($19.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY) come from?
Earnings per share at Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR grew +7.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.4 %, EBIT margin +3.1 %, tax rate −1.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
The market capitalisation of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is $22.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is 3.57 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
Earnings per share at Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR are $0.2100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 190.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
The dividend yield of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is 1.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
The net margin of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is 1.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is 14.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
The operating margin of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is 19.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
Revenue at Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is growing +7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY)?
Earnings per share at Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR are growing +13.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Nomura Research Institute Ltd (NRILY) carry?
The net debt of Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR is ¥104B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR in the live analysis
One click puts Nomura Research Institute Ltd ADR on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Oct 22, 2026