Nova Organic PCL (NV) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · TH · Market cap 351M THB
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 13 days ago
Share price −8.5% over the past month.
A solid business, trading 36% below our fair value.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (0.5600 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (0.5600 THB to 1.06 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range 0.4900 THB – 7.09 THB · fair‑value band 0.5600 THB – 1.06 THB · the 0.5400 THB price screens below the 0.8500 THB fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Nova Organic PCL (NV) currently trades at 0.5400 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 0.8500 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 57.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Nova Organic PCL generated revenue of 688M THB at a net margin of -4.6%. Revenue grew 71.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -2.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 15.3M THB. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 0.5600 THB (bear case) to 1.06 THB (bull case); at 0.5400 THB, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at 57%, NV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Nova Organic Public Company Limited engages in the production and distribution of food supplements and health beverages in Thailand.
Full company description
Nova Organic Public Company Limited engages in the production and distribution of food supplements and health beverages in Thailand. It offers nutritional supplement products for health and beauty under the Donutt brand; nutritional supplement products for holistic health care under the LIVNEST brand; nutritional supplements and other products under Lingzhi Plus Shitake, Matsutake, and Chompoo24 brands, as well as Q-Tine, a hair product. The Company is also involved in the contract manufacturing business. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Phra Samut Chedi, Thailand.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Nova Organic PCL reported revenue of 594M THB in FY2025 versus 1.2B THB in FY2021, a compound −16.7%/yr. Reported net income was −44.7M THB in FY2025.
Watch NV: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 670 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé S.A NESN | CHF 79.06 | CHF 57.26 | -28% |
| Danone S.A BN | €65.48 | €48.41 | -26% |
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,478 | ₹251.94 | -83% |
| The Kraft Heinz Company KHC | $24.53 | $24.59 | +0% |
| Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company 603288 | ¥35.05 | ¥21.93 | -37% |
| Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group 600887 | ¥25.51 | ¥32.50 | +27% |
| Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings 300999 | ¥25.28 | ¥9.89 | -61% |
| General Mills, Inc GIS | $38.18 | $28.32 | -26% |
| Wilmar International Limited F34 | 3.64 SGD | 3.89 SGD | +7% |
| McCormick & Company MKCV | $55.65 | $43.29 | -22% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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