NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what NOVONIX Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0700 – $8.62 · fair‑value band $0.0902 – $0.1842 · the $0.0940 price screens below the $0.1466 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
NOVONIX Limited, a battery technology and materials company, provides products and mission critical services in North America, Asia, Australia, and Europe. It operates through Battery Materials, Battery Technology, and Graphite Exploration segments.
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NOVONIX Limited, a battery technology and materials company, provides products and mission critical services in North America, Asia, Australia, and Europe. It operates through Battery Materials, Battery Technology, and Graphite Exploration segments. The company develops and manufactures battery anode materials and battery cell testing equipment; performs consulting services; and carries out research and development in battery development. It also manages, maintenance, and develops Mount Dromedary natural graphite deposit located in Northern Queensland, Australia. In addition, the company is involved in investment and management, and real estate borrowing activities, as well as battery technology activities. It serves battery manufacturers, materials companies, automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and consumer electronics manufacturers. The company was formerly known as Graphitecorp Limited and changed its name to NOVONIX Limited in July 2017. NOVONIX Limited was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Brisbane, Australia.
Stock analysis
NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF) currently trades at $0.0940, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1466, implying the stock looks roughly 35.9% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $0.1400 per share, and 3 of the 3 models we run sit above the $0.0940 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.1200, and 0 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.0902 (bear) to $0.1842 (bull), the price of $0.0940 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 15/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
NOVONIX Limited reported revenue of $5.8M in FY2025 versus $6.1M in FY2021, a compound −1.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$95.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $120M · P/S ratio 21.3 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1100 · Return on equity −62.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −19.1% · Operating margin −921% · Revenue (TTM) $5.6M · Revenue growth (YoY) −10.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 26 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 56%, NVNXF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0902Fair Value $0.1466Bull $0.1842
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.4/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+75.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−305.7% (2020) → −929.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NOVONIX Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NVNXF
Frequently asked questions
Is NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1466 versus a price of $0.0940, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NVNXF?
Our model-based fair value for NOVONIX Limited is $0.1466 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0940.
What is the quality score of NVNXF?
NOVONIX Limited has a Quality Score of 15/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1466 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 3 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0902, optimistic scenario $0.1842. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NOVONIX Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1466, about +56% upside versus a price of $0.0940 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.0902, optimistic scenario $0.1842. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF)?
NOVONIX Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.6M (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NOVONIX Limited it is $0.1466 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of $0.0940. It is the blended result of 3 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NOVONIX Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, NVNXF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.0940, fair value $0.1466, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVNXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0940); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1466). For NOVONIX Limited the two are $0.0526 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NOVONIX Limited worth?
The market values NOVONIX Limited at about $120M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is $0.0940; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1466 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVNXF?
Our models span a range for NOVONIX Limited: cautious scenario $0.0902, base $0.1466, optimistic $0.1842 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price $0.0940). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
Which stocks are comparable to NOVONIX Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Contemporary Amperex Technology Co, ABB Ltd, Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company, Vertiv Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NOVONIX Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price $0.0940, calculated fair value $0.1466 (+56%), Quality Score 15/100, from 3 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVNXF calculated?
We run NOVONIX Limited through 3 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1466, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. NOVONIX Limited currently trades 56 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with NOVONIX Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (15/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.0902 to $0.1842) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of NOVONIX Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF)?
The market capitalisation of NOVONIX Limited is $120M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NOVONIX Limited is 21.3 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF)?
Earnings per share at NOVONIX Limited are $−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NOVONIX Limited is −62.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NOVONIX Limited is −19.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF)?
The operating margin of NOVONIX Limited is −921% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF)?
Revenue at NOVONIX Limited is growing −10.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF) generate?
The free cash flow of NOVONIX Limited is −$106M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does NOVONIX Limited (NVNXF) carry?
The net debt of NOVONIX Limited is $20.7M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 13, 2026