Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Novus Holdings Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R1.54 – R8.04 · fair‑value band R12.61 – R17.37 · the R5.56 price screens below the R14.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Novus Holdings Limited engages in the printing production and manufacturing operations in South Africa. The company operates through Print, Education, Packing, and Other segments. The Print segment engages in printing of books, magazines, retail inserts, and newspapers for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector.
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Novus Holdings Limited engages in the printing production and manufacturing operations in South Africa. The company operates through Print, Education, Packing, and Other segments. The Print segment engages in printing of books, magazines, retail inserts, and newspapers for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector. The Education segment develops educational content for various institutions, including government and private colleges. The Packaging segment produces flexible packaging products and prints flexible labels to beverage, petrochemical, and FMCG markets. The Other segment engages in the non-print/packaging and non-educational related transaction businesses; and provision of jumbo tissue wadding, which is used to produce household and consumer products, such as toilet paper, facial tissue, kitchen towels, and serviettes. Novus Holdings Limited was founded in 1905 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS) currently trades at R5.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R14.41, implying the stock looks roughly 61.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R18.93 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the R5.56 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R5.29, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R12.61 (bear) to R17.37 (bull), the price of R5.56 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Novus Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 4.2B ZAR in FY2026 versus 3.0B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was 266M ZAR in FY2026, compounding +30.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 1.9B ZAC · P/E ratio 7.5 · P/S ratio 0.48 · EPS (TTM) R0.7400 · Dividend yield 9.9% · Net margin 6.3% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 159%, NVS screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R12.61Fair Value R14.41Bull R17.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1007 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.1%
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+30.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+20.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.20% vs −4%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 9%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−22.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 243 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+171% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R14.41 versus a price of R5.56, about +159% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NVS?
Our model-based fair value for Novus Holdings Ltd is R14.41 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R5.56.
What is the quality score of NVS?
Novus Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R14.41 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario R12.61, optimistic scenario R17.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Novus Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R14.41, about +159% upside versus a price of R5.56 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R12.61, optimistic scenario R17.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
Novus Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.2B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Novus Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Novus Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.89% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Novus Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -22.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 16.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.1 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NVS use?
Our models discount Novus Holdings Ltd at 16.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Novus Holdings Ltd that is -22.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (16.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Novus Holdings Ltd grew +8.1 % a year. The price currently implies -22.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Novus Holdings Ltd (-22.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 26.86 %: that much free cash flow Novus Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (16.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Novus Holdings Ltd it is R14.41 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of R5.56. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Novus Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, NVS trades below its calculated fair value: price R5.56, fair value R14.41, a gap of about +159% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NVS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R5.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R14.41). For Novus Holdings Ltd the two are R8.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Novus Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Novus Holdings Ltd at about 1.9B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is R5.56; our models calculate a fair value of R14.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NVS?
Our models span a range for Novus Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R12.61, base R14.41, optimistic R17.37 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price R5.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NVS?
Novus Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.5 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R14.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 2.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Novus Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Novus Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, RELX PLC, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Novus Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price R5.56, calculated fair value R14.41 (+159%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NVS calculated?
We run Novus Holdings Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R14.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Novus Holdings Ltd currently trades 159 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
The closing price on Sep 21, 2026 was R5.56. Our model-based fair value is R14.41, about +159% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Novus Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (R12.61). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS) come from?
Earnings per share at Novus Holdings Ltd grew −2.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −1.0 %, EBIT margin −3.2 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Novus Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
The market capitalisation of Novus Holdings Ltd is 1.9B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Novus Holdings Ltd is 0.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
Earnings per share at Novus Holdings Ltd are R0.7400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
The dividend yield of Novus Holdings Ltd is 9.9% (payout 74.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
The net margin of Novus Holdings Ltd is 6.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Novus Holdings Ltd is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Novus Holdings Ltd is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
The operating margin of Novus Holdings Ltd is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
Revenue at Novus Holdings Ltd is growing +1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS)?
Earnings per share at Novus Holdings Ltd are growing −52.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Novus Holdings Ltd (NVS) hold?
Novus Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, 638M ZAC net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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