Ninety One Ltd (NY1) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · ZA · Market cap 42.9B ZAC
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from R2.31 to R50.74 (+2,096.5%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −1.9% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 12% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
- Our model range runs from R38.05 (bear) to R63.42 (bull), base R50.74. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 62/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R26.30 – R54.61 · fair‑value band R38.05 – R63.42 · the R45.16 price screens below the R50.74 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
Ninety One Ltd (NY1) currently trades at R45.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R50.74, implying the stock looks roughly 12.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Ninety One Ltd generated revenue of 650M ZAR at a net margin of 23.6%. Revenue grew 13.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 332M ZAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R38.05 (bear case) to R63.42 (bull case); at R45.16, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at 12%, NY1 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (R8.42) versus Asset-Based (R1.45). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ninety One Group operates as an independent global asset manager worldwide. It serves private and public sector pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers, corporates, foundations, and central banks, as well as large retail financial groups, wealth managers, public and private equity as well as debt, private banks, and intermediaries.
Full company description
Ninety One Group operates as an independent global asset manager worldwide. It serves private and public sector pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers, corporates, foundations, and central banks, as well as large retail financial groups, wealth managers, public and private equity as well as debt, private banks, and intermediaries. It seeks to invest in South African companies struggling with the economic fallout from the spread of coronavirus. Ninety One Group was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Cape Town, South Africa with additional offices in Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Ninety One Ltd reported revenue of R812M in FY2026 versus R795M in FY2022, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was R159M in FY2026, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Asset Management · 714 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Asset Management stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock, Inc BLK | $1,161 | $465.75 | -60% |
| Investor AB INVEB | kr 417.90 | kr 835.80 | +100% |
| AB Industrivärden INDUA | kr 544.00 | kr 375.93 | -31% |
| ICICIAMC ICICIAMC | ₹3,077 | ₹1,132 | -63% |
| Jio Financial Services Limited JIOFIN | ₹256.05 | ₹171.84 | -33% |
| Hedef Holding HEDEF | 267.25 TRY | 321.44 TRY | +20% |
| Bajaj Holdings BAJAJHLDNG | ₹11,294 | ₹11,257 | -0% |
| HDFC Asset Management Company HDFCAMC | ₹2,490 | ₹866.78 | -65% |
| Nippon Life Asset Management Limited NAMINDIA | ₹1,233 | ₹311.00 | -75% |
| 360 One Wam Limited 360ONE | ₹1,185 | ₹255.94 | -78% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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