Ninety One Ltd (NY1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Ninety One Ltd ZAR 50.10, price ZAR 43.03, upside +16.4%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R26.30 – R54.61 · fair‑value band R37.57 – R62.62 · the R43.03 price screens below the R50.10 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 1, 2026.
Follow Ninety One in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Ninety One is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Ninety One Group operates as an independent global asset manager worldwide. It serves private and public sector pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers, corporates, foundations, and central banks, as well as large retail financial groups, wealth managers, public and private equity as well as debt, private banks, and intermediaries.
Show more
Ninety One Group operates as an independent global asset manager worldwide. It serves private and public sector pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, insurers, corporates, foundations, and central banks, as well as large retail financial groups, wealth managers, public and private equity as well as debt, private banks, and intermediaries. It seeks to invest in South African companies struggling with the economic fallout from the spread of coronavirus. Ninety One Group was founded in 1991 and is headquartered in Cape Town, South Africa with additional offices in Africa.
Stock analysis
Ninety One Ltd (NY1) currently trades at R43.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R50.10, implying the stock looks roughly 14.1% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R182.63 per share, and 11 of the 12 models we run sit above the R43.03 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R32.01, and 1 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R37.57 (bear) to R62.62 (bull), the price of R43.03 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Ninety One Ltd reported revenue of £812M in FY2026 versus £795M in FY2022, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was £159M in FY2026, compounding −6.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 38.6B ZAC · P/E ratio 11.5 · P/S ratio 2.26 · EPS (TTM) R3.70 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 19.6% · Return on equity 28.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at 16%, NY1 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R37.57Fair Value R50.10Bull R62.62
Price R43.03 · Upside +16.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.84 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.1% vs −10.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 26%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 14.9%/yr over ~7Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−3.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.8% a year for the price and −1.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 664 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Below median
Fair Value upside+16.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)28.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets0.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)23.6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)29.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.3% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ninety One Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/NY1
Frequently asked questions
Is Ninety One Ltd (NY1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R50.10 versus a price of R43.03, about +16% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of NY1?
Our model-based fair value for Ninety One Ltd is R50.10 (as of Oct 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R43.03.
What is the quality score of NY1?
Ninety One Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R50.10 (as of Oct 1, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario R37.57, optimistic scenario R62.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ninety One Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R50.10, about +16% upside versus a price of R43.03 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R37.57, optimistic scenario R62.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
Ninety One Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £650M (latest available figure, as of Oct 1, 2026).
Does Ninety One Ltd pay a dividend?
Ninety One Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.31% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 1, 2026).
What growth is priced into Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Ninety One Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -3.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.4 % per year. As of Oct 1, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of NY1 use?
Our models discount Ninety One Ltd at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.75, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Ninety One Ltd that is -3.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Ninety One Ltd (NY1) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Ninety One Ltd grew +1.4 % a year. The price currently implies -3.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Ninety One Ltd (NY1) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Ninety One Ltd (-3.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.15 %: that much free cash flow Ninety One Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ninety One Ltd it is R50.10 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026), against a price of R43.03. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ninety One Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 1, 2026, NY1 trades below its calculated fair value: price R43.03, fair value R50.10, a gap of about +16% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of NY1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R43.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R50.10). For Ninety One Ltd the two are R7.07 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ninety One Ltd worth?
The market values Ninety One Ltd at about 38.6B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Oct 1, 2026). Per share that is R43.03; our models calculate a fair value of R50.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about NY1?
Our models span a range for Ninety One Ltd: cautious scenario R37.57, base R50.10, optimistic R62.62 per share (as of Oct 1, 2026, price R43.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of NY1?
Ninety One Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.5 (as of Oct 1, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R50.10 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ninety One Ltd (as of Oct 1, 2026): return on equity 28.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is NY1 from its 52-week high?
Ninety One Ltd trades at R43.03, about 21% below its 52-week high of R54.61 and 3% above the low of R41.75 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R50.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ninety One Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, KKR & Co, Brookfield Corporation, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ninety One Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 1, 2026: price R43.03, calculated fair value R50.10 (+16%), Quality Score 55/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of NY1 calculated?
We run Ninety One Ltd through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R50.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Ninety One Ltd currently trades 14 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R43.03. Our model-based fair value is R50.10, about +16% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ninety One Ltd right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Ninety One Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
The market capitalisation of Ninety One Ltd is 38.6B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ninety One Ltd is 2.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
Earnings per share at Ninety One Ltd are R3.70 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
The dividend yield of Ninety One Ltd is 0.3% (payout 3.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
The net margin of Ninety One Ltd is 19.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ninety One Ltd is 28.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ninety One Ltd is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
The operating margin of Ninety One Ltd is 29.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
Revenue at Ninety One Ltd is growing +13.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ninety One Ltd (NY1)?
Earnings per share at Ninety One Ltd are growing −12.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Ninety One Ltd (NY1) hold?
Ninety One Ltd holds more cash than debt, £332M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Ninety One Ltd in the live analysis
One click puts Ninety One Ltd on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Oct 1, 2026