Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Ocular Therapeutix Inc stock $2.43, price $6.60, that is 63.1% below the price, quality 25 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.08 – $16.11 · fair‑value band $1.61 – $3.04 · the $6.60 price screens above the $2.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Ocular Therapeutix, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of therapies for retinal diseases and other eye conditions using its bioresorbable hydrogel-based formulation technology in the United States.
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The company markets DEXTENZA, a dexamethasone ophthalmic insert to treat post-surgical ocular inflammation and pain following ophthalmic surgery, as well as allergic conjunctivitis.
It is also developing AXPAXLI, an axitinib intravitreal hydrogel that is in phase 3 clinical trials for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration and non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy; OTX-TIC, a travoprost intracameral hydrogel, which has completed phase 2 clinical trials for the treatment of open-angle glaucoma or ocular hypertension.
The company has a license agreement and collaboration with AffaMed Therapeutics Limited for the development and commercialization of DEXTENZA and OTX-TIC. Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Bedford, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL) currently trades at $6.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.43, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $1.61 (bear) to $3.04 (bull), the price of $6.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 25/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Ocular Therapeutix Inc reported revenue of $51.8M in FY2025 versus $43.5M in FY2021, a compound +4.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$266M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.5B Small · P/S ratio 28.4 · EPS (TTM) $−1.40 · Return on equity −73.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −38.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin −609% · Revenue (TTM) $52.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) +0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 59% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −63%, OCUL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$1.61Fair Value $2.43Bull$3.04
Price $6.60 · Downside -63.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)$1.89$2.86$3.5854
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.89$2.86$3.5854
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 7 officers or directors sold shares worth $927,920 and none bought.
SaleTodd AndermanChief Legal Officer11,984 shares at $7.29$87,363Oct 8, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJeffrey S. HeierChief Scientific Officer5× since Nov 24, 2025: 23,709 shares, avg. $8.60$203,984Oct 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SalePeter KaiserChief Development Officer5× since Nov 24, 2025: 21,809 shares, avg. $8.57$186,857Oct 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDonald NotmanChief Operating Officer3× since Feb 2, 2026: 24,035 shares, avg. $8.99$216,123Aug 31, 2026
SalePravin DugelOfficer, Director5× since Nov 24, 2025: 207,273 shares, avg. $9.34$1.9MAug 24, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSanjay NayakChief Strategy Officer5× since Nov 24, 2025: 17,740 shares, avg. $9.38$166,407Aug 24, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleNadia WaheedChief Medical Officer3× since Feb 12, 2026: 26,201 shares, avg. $8.43$220,876Jun 3, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyRichard L Lindstrom MdDirector60,229 shares at $7.66$461,354Feb 20, 2026
Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.24/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−18.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +40.3% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+93.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−361.1% (2020) → −521.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (83 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 558 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score25 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−63.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−32.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)0.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.27× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)28.50× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)1· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 22
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.43 versus a price of $6.60, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OCUL?
Our model-based fair value for Ocular Therapeutix Inc is $2.43 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.60.
What is the quality score of OCUL?
Ocular Therapeutix Inc has a Quality Score of 25/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.43 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.61, optimistic scenario $3.04. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ocular Therapeutix Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.43, about 63% lower versus a price of $6.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.61, optimistic scenario $3.04. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL)?
Ocular Therapeutix Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $52.1M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ocular Therapeutix Inc it is $2.43 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $6.60. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Ocular Therapeutix Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, OCUL trades above its calculated fair value: price $6.60, fair value $2.43, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OCUL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.43). For Ocular Therapeutix Inc the two are $4.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ocular Therapeutix Inc worth?
The market values Ocular Therapeutix Inc at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $6.60; our models calculate a fair value of $2.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OCUL?
Our models span a range for Ocular Therapeutix Inc: cautious scenario $1.61, base $2.43, optimistic $3.04 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $6.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ocular Therapeutix Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −73.0%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 25/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OCUL from its 52-week high?
Ocular Therapeutix Inc trades at $6.60, about 59% below its 52-week high of $16.11 and 5% above the low of $6.29 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ocular Therapeutix Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ocular Therapeutix Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $6.60, calculated fair value $2.43 (−63%), Quality Score 25/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OCUL calculated?
We run Ocular Therapeutix Inc through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.43 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Ocular Therapeutix Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $6.60. Our model-based fair value is $2.43, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ocular Therapeutix Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.04). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (25/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.61 to $3.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Ocular Therapeutix Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL)?
The market capitalisation of Ocular Therapeutix Inc is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ocular Therapeutix Inc is 28.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL)?
Earnings per share at Ocular Therapeutix Inc are $−1.40. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ocular Therapeutix Inc is −73.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ocular Therapeutix Inc is −38.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL)?
The operating margin of Ocular Therapeutix Inc is −609% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL)?
Revenue at Ocular Therapeutix Inc is growing +0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL) generate?
The free cash flow of Ocular Therapeutix Inc is −$217M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Ocular Therapeutix Inc (OCUL) hold?
Ocular Therapeutix Inc holds more cash than debt, $657M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026
