Orkla ASA (ORKLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Orkla ASA $12.95, price $9.52, upside +36.0%, quality 64 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.97 – $13.12 · fair‑value band $8.42 – $19.58 · the $9.52 price screens below the $12.95 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Orkla ASA operates as an industrial investment company within brands and consumer-oriented businesses worldwide. It offers decorative paints, marine coatings, protective coatings, and powder coatings; frozen pizza, condiments, bread toppings, and ready-to-eat meals; bakery, ice cream, and plant-based products; and confectionery, biscuits, and salty snacks.
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Orkla ASA operates as an industrial investment company within brands and consumer-oriented businesses worldwide. It offers decorative paints, marine coatings, protective coatings, and powder coatings; frozen pizza, condiments, bread toppings, and ready-to-eat meals; bakery, ice cream, and plant-based products; and confectionery, biscuits, and salty snacks. The company also provides branded consumer health products, such as daily nutrition and oral health, wound care, and functional personal care under the Möller's, Jordan, and Salvequick brand names; spices and spice blends, ready-to-eat sweets, breakfast mixes, and other; and cleaning and personal hygiene products, such as detergents, cleaning equipment, and personal care products. In addition, it operates a franchised pizza business; offers paintbrushes, rollers, and other painting project consumables comprising sanding equipment, tape, protective gear, and cleaning products; and health and sports nutrition products. The company was founded in 1654 and is headquartered in Oslo, Norway.
Stock analysis
Orkla ASA ADR (ORKLY) currently trades at $9.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.95, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $21.72 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the $9.52 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.48, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.42 (bear) to $19.58 (bull), the price of $9.52 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Orkla ASA ADR reported revenue of 71.5B NOK in FY2025 versus 50.4B NOK in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was 11.5B NOK in FY2025, compounding +24.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.5B · P/E ratio 14.0 · P/S ratio 2.24 · EPS (TTM) $0.6800 · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin 16.0% · Return on equity 13.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at 36%, ORKLY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.42Fair Value $12.95Bull $19.58
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +17.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.21.3% vs 13.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 11%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 120% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NOK, Norway: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.2% a year for the price and −0.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (38 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 637 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+39.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.6% · Above median
Return on assets5.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)15.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)9.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.27× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.95 versus a price of $9.52, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORKLY?
Our model-based fair value for Orkla ASA ADR is $12.95 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $9.52.
What is the quality score of ORKLY?
Orkla ASA ADR has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.95 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.42, optimistic scenario $19.58. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orkla ASA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.95, about +36% upside versus a price of $9.52 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.42, optimistic scenario $19.58. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
Orkla ASA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 71.8B NOK (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Orkla ASA ADR pay a dividend?
Orkla ASA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.32% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orkla ASA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +1.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORKLY use?
Our models discount Orkla ASA ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.19, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orkla ASA ADR that is +1.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orkla ASA (ORKLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orkla ASA ADR grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +1.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orkla ASA (ORKLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orkla ASA ADR (+1.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.47 %: that much free cash flow Orkla ASA ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orkla ASA ADR it is $12.95 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $9.52. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orkla ASA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, ORKLY trades below its calculated fair value: price $9.52, fair value $12.95, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORKLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($9.52); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.95). For Orkla ASA ADR the two are $3.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orkla ASA ADR worth?
The market values Orkla ASA ADR at about $9.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $9.52; our models calculate a fair value of $12.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORKLY?
Our models span a range for Orkla ASA ADR: cautious scenario $8.42, base $12.95, optimistic $19.58 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $9.52). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORKLY?
Orkla ASA ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.0 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.95 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.9, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
What is the PEG ratio of ORKLY?
The PEG ratio of Orkla ASA ADR is 1.15 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orkla ASA ADR (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 13.6%, debt of 0.27 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORKLY from its 52-week high?
Orkla ASA ADR trades at $9.52, about 27% below its 52-week high of $13.12 and 1% above the low of $9.40 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orkla ASA ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, The Kraft Heinz Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orkla ASA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $9.52, calculated fair value $12.95 (+36%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORKLY calculated?
We run Orkla ASA ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Orkla ASA ADR currently trades 26 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $9.52. Our model-based fair value is $12.95, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orkla ASA ADR right now?
Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($8.42 to $19.58) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Orkla ASA (ORKLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Orkla ASA ADR grew +10.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.8 %, EBIT margin +0.0 %, tax rate +0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orkla ASA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
The market capitalisation of Orkla ASA ADR is $9.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orkla ASA ADR is 2.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
Earnings per share at Orkla ASA ADR are $0.6800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
The dividend yield of Orkla ASA ADR is 6.3% (payout 88.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
The net margin of Orkla ASA ADR is 16.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orkla ASA ADR is 13.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orkla ASA ADR is 8.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
The operating margin of Orkla ASA ADR is 9.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
Revenue at Orkla ASA ADR is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orkla ASA (ORKLY)?
Earnings per share at Orkla ASA ADR are growing −4.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Orkla ASA (ORKLY) carry?
The net debt of Orkla ASA ADR is 14.7B NOK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026