Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Oxford Square Capital Corp $0.98, price $1.27, upside -23.0%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.11 – $2.09 · fair‑value band $0.7310 – $1.22 · the $1.27 price screens above the $0.9775 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Oxford Square Capital Corp. is a business development company, operates as a closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. It is a private equity and mezzanine firm. The firm invests in both public and private companies.
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Oxford Square Capital Corp. is a business development company, operates as a closed-end, non-diversified management investment company. It is a private equity and mezzanine firm. The firm invests in both public and private companies. It invests in secured and unsecured senior debt, subordinated debt, junior subordinated debt, preferred stock, common stock and syndicated bank loans. The firm primarily invests in debt and/or equity securities of technology-related companies that operate in the computer software, Internet, information technology infrastructure and services, media, telecommunications and telecommunications equipment, semiconductors, hardware, technology-enabled services, semiconductor capital equipment, medical device technology, diversified technology, and networking systems sectors. It concentrates its investments in companies having annual revenues of less than $200 million and a market capitalization or enterprise value of less than $300 million. The firm invests between $5 million and $30 million per transaction. It seeks to exit its investments within 7 years. It serves as the investment adviser to TICC. Oxford Square Capital Corp., formerly known as TICC Capital Corp., was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Greenwich, Connecticut.
Stock analysis
Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ) currently trades at $1.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.9775, implying the stock looks roughly 29.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 9 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.7310 (bear) to $1.22 (bull), the price of $1.27 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Oxford Square Capital Corp reported revenue of −$5.0M in FY2025 versus $43.9M in FY2021. Reported net income was −$18.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $137M · P/S ratio 3.51 · EPS (TTM) $−0.4300 · Net margin −93.7% · Return on equity −25.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.7% · Operating margin 84.4% · Revenue (TTM) $39.0M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −23%, OXSQ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.7310Fair Value $0.9775Bull $1.22
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.16/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+27.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.9%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
114.4% (2017) → 51.3% (2023)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.2% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (75 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Oxford Square Capital Corp with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Asset Management · 659 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−23% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−94% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)84% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)33.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.28× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Asset Management median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oxford Square Capital Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OXSQ
Frequently asked questions
Is Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.9775 versus a price of $1.27, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OXSQ?
Our model-based fair value for Oxford Square Capital Corp is $0.9775 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1.27.
What is the quality score of OXSQ?
Oxford Square Capital Corp has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.9775 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.7310, optimistic scenario $1.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oxford Square Capital Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.9775, about −23% upside versus a price of $1.27 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.7310, optimistic scenario $1.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
Oxford Square Capital Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $39.0M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Oxford Square Capital Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +10.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 7 years revenue grew -2.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of OXSQ use?
Our models discount Oxford Square Capital Corp at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Oxford Square Capital Corp that is +10.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ) delivered so far?
Over the past 7 years revenue at Oxford Square Capital Corp grew -2.1 % a year. The price currently implies +10.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Oxford Square Capital Corp (+10.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.54 %: that much free cash flow Oxford Square Capital Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oxford Square Capital Corp it is $0.9775 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $1.27. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Oxford Square Capital Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, OXSQ trades above its calculated fair value: price $1.27, fair value $0.9775, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OXSQ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.9775). For Oxford Square Capital Corp the two are $0.2925 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oxford Square Capital Corp worth?
The market values Oxford Square Capital Corp at about $137M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $1.27; our models calculate a fair value of $0.9775 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OXSQ?
Our models span a range for Oxford Square Capital Corp: cautious scenario $0.7310, base $0.9775, optimistic $1.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $1.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of OXSQ?
The PEG ratio of Oxford Square Capital Corp is 1.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oxford Square Capital Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −25.0%, debt of 1.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OXSQ from its 52-week high?
Oxford Square Capital Corp trades at $1.27, about 27% below its 52-week high of $1.74 and 15% above the low of $1.11 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.9775 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oxford Square Capital Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Blackstone Inc, Brookfield Corporation, KKR & Co, Apollo Global Management, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oxford Square Capital Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $1.27, calculated fair value $0.9775 (−23%), Quality Score 36/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OXSQ calculated?
We run Oxford Square Capital Corp through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.9775, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Oxford Square Capital Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $1.27. Our model-based fair value is $0.9775, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oxford Square Capital Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.22). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Oxford Square Capital Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
The market capitalisation of Oxford Square Capital Corp is $137M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oxford Square Capital Corp is 3.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
Earnings per share at Oxford Square Capital Corp are $−0.4300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
The net margin of Oxford Square Capital Corp is −93.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oxford Square Capital Corp is −25.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oxford Square Capital Corp is −0.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
The operating margin of Oxford Square Capital Corp is 84.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
Revenue at Oxford Square Capital Corp is growing −1.3% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ)?
Earnings per share at Oxford Square Capital Corp are growing −32.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Oxford Square Capital Corp (OXSQ) carry?
The net debt of Oxford Square Capital Corp is $106M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026