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The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of The Progressive Corporation BRL 41.66, price BRL 54.48, upside -23.5%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
The Progressive Corporation
P1GR34 · SAOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value R$41.66 · Overvalued (−23.5%)
✓Quality 66/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +15.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 12.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 69/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$8.13 – R$791.46 · fair‑value band R$27.16 – R$52.24 · the R$54.48 price screens above the R$41.66 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters.
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The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, it offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provides related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.
Stock analysis
The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34) currently trades at R$54.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$41.66, 23.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of R$49.86 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the R$54.48 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$9.04, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$27.16 (bear) to R$52.24 (bull), the price of R$54.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
The Progressive Corporation reported revenue of $87.6B in FY2025 versus $47.7B in FY2021, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was $11.3B in FY2025, compounding +35.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap R$624B (≈ $119B) · P/E ratio 10.4 · P/S ratio 1.34 · EPS (TTM) R$51.62 · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 12.9% · Return on equity 34.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 90% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −24%, P1GR34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$27.16
Fair Value R$41.66
Bull R$52.24
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$38.88 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
R$31.58
R$49.86
R$127.27
67
Gordon GGM
R$11.73
R$24.40
R$38.70
66
DDM Multi-Stage
R$11.73
R$20.57
R$25.60
66
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$11.73
R$24.40
R$38.70
66
DDM Multi-Stage
R$11.73
R$20.57
R$25.60
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$49.07
R$65.43
R$81.79
63
P/B Multiple
R$14.17
R$18.90
R$23.62
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
R$6.75
R$9.04
R$13.50
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
R$31.58
R$49.86
R$127.27
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
66/100
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Profitability
67
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
81
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
54
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
37
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
56
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+16.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+33.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+33.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 17%
2025 sits 189% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
P1GR34 screens overvalued: fair value 24% below the price. Compare with Chubb Limited →
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Reflecting On Property & Casualty Insurance Stocks’ Q2 Earnings: Progressive (NYSE:PGR)
- Progressive (PGR) Stock Could Still Be A Bargain On Earnings
- Progressive (PGR) Stock Moves -2.48%: What You Should Know
- Primerica, Progressive, Allstate, and Trupanion Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know
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Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Property & Casualty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chubb Limited CB | $331.37 | $235.99 | −29% |
| The Travelers Companies, Inc TRV | $356.51 | $279.78 | −22% |
| The Allstate Corporation ALL | $224.41 | $290.52 | +29% |
| The People's Insurance Company 601319 | ¥7.98 | ¥9.02 | +13% |
| Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH | C$2,219 | C$3,257 | +47% |
| Intact Financial Corporation IFC | C$250.54 | C$167.88 | −33% |
| Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF | $161.92 | $143.72 | −11% |
| W. R. Berkley Corporation WRB | $67.66 | $47.22 | −30% |
| QBE Insurance Group QBE | A$23.81 | A$13.42 | −44% |
| Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A UNI | €25.79 | €16.11 | −38% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$41.66 versus a price of R$54.48, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of P1GR34?
Our model-based fair value for The Progressive Corporation is R$41.66 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$54.48.
What is the quality score of P1GR34?
The Progressive Corporation has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$41.66 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$27.16, optimistic scenario R$52.24. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The Progressive Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$41.66, about −24% upside versus a price of R$54.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$27.16, optimistic scenario R$52.24. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
The Progressive Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $91.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does The Progressive Corporation pay a dividend?
The Progressive Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.04% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The Progressive Corporation it is R$41.66 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$54.48. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The Progressive Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, P1GR34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$54.48, fair value R$41.66, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of P1GR34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$54.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$41.66). For The Progressive Corporation the two are R$12.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The Progressive Corporation worth?
The market values The Progressive Corporation at about R$624B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$54.48; our models calculate a fair value of R$41.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about P1GR34?
Our models span a range for The Progressive Corporation: cautious scenario R$27.16, base R$41.66, optimistic R$52.24 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$54.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is P1GR34 from its 52-week high?
The Progressive Corporation trades at R$54.48, about 90% below its 52-week high of R$546.32 and 68% above the low of R$32.44 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$41.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The Progressive Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, The People's Insurance Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The Progressive Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$54.48, calculated fair value R$41.66 (−24%), Quality Score 66/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of P1GR34 calculated?
We run The Progressive Corporation through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$41.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. The Progressive Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$54.48. Our model-based fair value is R$41.66, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The Progressive Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$52.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (R$27.16 to R$52.24) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of The Progressive Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
The market capitalisation of The Progressive Corporation is R$624B (≈ $119B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of The Progressive Corporation is 10.4 (as of Jul 20, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The Progressive Corporation is 1.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
Earnings per share at The Progressive Corporation are R$51.62 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
The dividend yield of The Progressive Corporation is 0.0% (payout 0.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
The net margin of The Progressive Corporation is 12.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The Progressive Corporation is 34.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The Progressive Corporation is 7.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
The operating margin of The Progressive Corporation is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
Revenue at The Progressive Corporation is growing +7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34)?
Earnings per share at The Progressive Corporation are growing +5.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34) generate?
The free cash flow of The Progressive Corporation is $17.2B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does The Progressive Corporation (P1GR34) carry?
The net debt of The Progressive Corporation is $6.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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