Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. €16.29, price €26.97, upside -39.6%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €2.79 – €29.23 · fair‑value band €13.70 – €26.25 · the €26.97 price screens above the €16.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products and services primarily in Italy. The company operates through Non-Life Insurance Business, Life Insurance Business, Banking Associates Business, and Other Business segments.
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Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance products and services primarily in Italy. The company operates through Non-Life Insurance Business, Life Insurance Business, Banking Associates Business, and Other Business segments. It offers risk cover solutions for vehicles, sports craft, and travel; home and condominiums; work related to businesses, traders, professionals, and legal protection; accident and health protection; and investments and welfare. The company also provides life insurance products; bancassurance; and reinsurance services. In addition, it is involved in the operation and management of real estate properties; operation of hotels, residences, and resorts through leases, franchises, and management; agricultural, wine, healthcare facilities, and port facilities; and supplies of anti-theft systems, as well as provision of vehicle and glass repair services; mobile payments, telematics, and response services to assistance request; and telemedicine, home care and prevention, physiotherapy, and social care services. Further, the company offers digital health platform; property services to homes and condominiums, and administrators and owners; and electronic payment and e-money services. It distributes its products through direct sales; broker; agency, banking, and craftsmen network; and franchise administrators. The company was formerly known as Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. and changed its name to Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A. in January 2025. Unipol Assicurazioni S.p.A. was founded in 1961 and is based in Bologna, Italy.
Stock analysis
Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI) currently trades at €26.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €16.29, implying the stock looks roughly 65.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €20.28 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the €26.97 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €9.71, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €13.70 (bear) to €26.25 (bull), the price of €26.97 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. reported revenue of €13.7B in FY2025 versus €14.3B in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was €1.5B in FY2025, compounding +24.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €19.3B · P/E ratio 13.3 · P/S ratio 1.44 · EPS (TTM) €2.03 · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 10.8% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −40%, UNI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €13.70Fair Value €16.29Bull €26.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.6657 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.7% a year
Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+23.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.16% vs 10%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2023 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 0%
2025 sits 112% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 8.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (35 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Property & Casualty · 119 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/UNI
Frequently asked questions
Is Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €16.29 versus a price of €26.97, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of UNI?
Our model-based fair value for Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. is €16.29 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €26.97.
What is the quality score of UNI?
Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €16.29 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario €13.70, optimistic scenario €26.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €16.29, about −40% upside versus a price of €26.97 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €13.70, optimistic scenario €26.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €10.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. pay a dividend?
Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of UNI use?
Our models discount Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. at 10.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.60, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. grew +0.4 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.02 %: that much free cash flow Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. it is €16.29 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €26.97. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, UNI trades above its calculated fair value: price €26.97, fair value €16.29, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of UNI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€26.97); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€16.29). For Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. the two are €10.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. worth?
The market values Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. at about €19.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €26.97; our models calculate a fair value of €16.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about UNI?
Our models span a range for Unipol Gruppo S.p.A.: cautious scenario €13.70, base €16.29, optimistic €26.25 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €26.97). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of UNI?
Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €16.29 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.1, P/B 2.1, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
What is the PEG ratio of UNI?
The PEG ratio of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. is 0.08 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 0.48 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is UNI from its 52-week high?
Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. trades at €26.97, about 8% below its 52-week high of €29.23 and 61% above the low of €16.78 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €16.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Unipol Gruppo S.p.A.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value The Progressive Corporation, Chubb Limited, The Travelers Companies, Inc, The Allstate Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €26.97, calculated fair value €16.29 (−40%), Quality Score 52/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of UNI calculated?
We run Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €16.29, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €26.97. Our model-based fair value is €16.29, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€26.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€13.70 to €26.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI) come from?
Earnings per share at Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. grew −4.1 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −11.0 %, EBIT margin +1.8 %, tax rate +3.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
The market capitalisation of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. is €19.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. is 1.44 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
Earnings per share at Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. are €2.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
The dividend yield of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. is 4.2% (payout 55.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
The net margin of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. is 10.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
The operating margin of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
Revenue at Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. is growing −2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI)?
Earnings per share at Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. are growing +12.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. (UNI) carry?
The net debt of Unipol Gruppo S.p.A. is €3.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026