Penumbra, Inc (PEN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $12.6B
Penumbra, Inc
PEN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price +2.1% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 76% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($129.82). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (69/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($57.60 to $129.82) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $116.09 – $359.40 · fair‑value band $57.60 – $129.82 · the $324.86 price screens above the $76.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Penumbra, Inc (PEN) currently trades at $324.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $76.80, implying the stock looks roughly 76.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Penumbra, Inc generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 11.8%. Revenue grew 15.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.7%. Net debt stands at $32.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $57.60 (bear case) to $129.82 (bull case); at $324.86, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -76%, PEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($130.80) versus Dividend Discount ($3.29). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Penumbra, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Penumbra, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States and internationally. It offers computer-assisted vacuum thrombectomy; peripheral thrombectomy products, including the Indigo System for power aspiration of thrombus in the body; Lightning Flash, a mechanical thrombectomy system; Lightning Bolt 7, an arterial thrombectomy system; and CAT RX. It also provides access products, including guide catheters and the Penumbra distal delivery catheters under the Neuron, Neuron MAX, BENCHMARK, BMX, DDC, Access25; MIDWAY, and PX SLIM brands; Penumbra System, an integrated mechanical thrombectomy system comprising reperfusion catheters and separators, the 3D Revascularization device, aspiration tubing, aspiration pump, and other components and accessories under the Penumbra RED, SENDit, JET, ACE, BMX, Max, 3D Revascularization Device, and Penumbra ENGINE brands; and neuro embolization coiling systems that include the Penumbra Coil 400, for the treatment of aneurysms and other complex lesions, detachable coils of neurovascular lesions under the Penumbra SMART COIL, SwiftSET, and Penumbra SwiftPAC Coil brands; and POD400 and PAC400 brands. In addition, it provides peripheral embolization products, such as Ruby Embolization Platform, which consists of detachable coils for peripheral applications; Ruby LP and XL Embolization Platform; Penumbra LANTERN Delivery Microcatheter, a low-profile microcatheter with a high-flow lumen; POD (Penumbra Occlusion Device) System, a single device solution; Packing Coil LP; and Packing Coil, a complementary device for use in other peripheral embolization products. Further, it offers neurosurgical tools comprising the Artemis Neuro Evacuation Device for surgical removal of fluid and tissue from the ventricles and cerebrum. It sells its products through direct sales organizations and distributors. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Alameda, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Penumbra, Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $748M in FY2021, a compound +17.1%/yr. Reported net income was $178M in FY2025, compounding +186.9%/yr from FY2021.
PEN screens 76% overvalued. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Penumbra GAAP EPS of $0.88, revenue of $390M
- Penumbra, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
- Penumbra (PEN) Following THUNDERBOLT Debut, Is The Stock A Bargain Or Fairly Valued
- Penumbra (PEN) Wins FDA Clearance For THUNDERBOLT After Strong Stroke Study
Peer Group
Medical Devices · 350 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbott Laboratories, ABT | $100.68 | $74.79 | -26% |
| Stryker Corporation SYK | $316.44 | $186.28 | -41% |
| Medtronic plc MDT | $83.56 | $65.57 | -22% |
| Boston Scientific Corporation BSX | $43.04 | $38.44 | -11% |
| Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW | $85.73 | $41.02 | -52% |
| Siemens Healthineers AG SHL | €34.59 | €33.87 | -2% |
| Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 | ¥149.43 | ¥147.63 | -1% |
| Shanghai United Imaging Healthcare Co 688271 | ¥109.00 | ¥43.60 | -60% |
| Demant A/S DEMANT | kr 276.60 | kr 161.17 | -42% |
| Getinge AB GETIB | kr 206.80 | kr 192.14 | -7% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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