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Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Penguin Solutions, Inc. $11.79, price $53.88, upside -78.1%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · ISIN KYG8232Y1017

PS Penguin Solutions, Inc. logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Penguin Solutions, Inc.

PENG · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $11.79 · Strongly overvalued (−78%)
!Quality 62/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +16.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Moderate moat 48/100
!Insider activity 44/100
!Weak on dividend: 5 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$81.39 $12.63 Fair Value $11.79 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $12.63 – $81.39 · fair‑value band $8.84 – $14.74 · the $53.88 price screens above the $11.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Penguin Solutions, Inc. designs, builds, deploys and manages enterprise solutions worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Advanced Computing, Integrated Memory, and Optimized LED.

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Penguin Solutions, Inc. designs, builds, deploys and manages enterprise solutions worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Advanced Computing, Integrated Memory, and Optimized LED. It offers hardware, software, and services focusing on technical computing for core and cloud environments through high-performance computing and AI solutions under the Penguin Solutions, Penguin Computing, Stratus, and Penguin Edge brands. The company also provides Penguin Solutions OriginAI, an AI infrastructure solution for customers deploying GPUs at scale; continuous availability of customers critical data and applications in data centers and edge locations under the Stratus brand products; and dynamic random-access memory, modules, solid-state/flash storage, and other integrated memory solutions to networking and telecom, data analytics, AI, and ML under the SMART Modular Technologies brand. In addition, it provides Zefr, a memory module; Altus and AMD EPYC based servers for expansive memory for AI workloads; flash memory products comprising solid-state drives, Serial Advanced Technology Attachment, and PCIe NVMe products in 2.5 enclosures, M.2, EDSFF, and other module form factors; and multimediacard and embedded and removable USB products, and SD and microSD Card configurations, as well as firmware development. Further, the company offers procurement, logistics, inventory management, temporary warehousing, programming, kitting, and packaging supply chain services; and LEDs under the Cree LED brand; Cree LED XLamp and J Series packaged LED components. It serves OEMs, enterprise, government, and other end customers through direct and third-party channels. The company has a collaboration with Deepgram and Dell Technologies. The company was formerly known as SMART Global Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Penguin Solutions, Inc. in October 2024. Penguin Solutions, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.

Stock analysis

Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) currently trades at $53.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.79, implying the stock looks roughly 357.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $23.76 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $53.88 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.10, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $8.84 (bear) to $14.74 (bull), the price of $53.88 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Penguin Solutions, Inc. reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was $21.6M in FY2025, compounding +0.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.9B · P/E ratio 38.8 · P/S ratio 0.61 · EPS (TTM) $1.39 · Dividend yield 0.3% · Net margin 1.6% · Return on equity 16.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 232% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 66% fair-value upside, at −78%, PENG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($2.10 to $46.04). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $8.84 Fair Value $11.79 Bull $14.74
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.39 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $21.91 $32.36 $47.28 80
Growth DCF $22.31 $31.66 $44.27 79
Owner Earnings $15.48 $22.82 $33.31 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $21.91 $32.36 $47.28 80
Owner Earnings $15.48 $22.82 $33.31 76
5Y Revenue Exit $16.08 $23.52 $32.69 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $27.39 $44.27 $63.64 75
5Y P/E Exit $13.14 $18.11 $23.08 72
10Y Revenue Exit $17.72 $24.83 $33.80 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $25.09 $38.77 $56.49 68
10Y P/E Exit $16.27 $21.19 $26.75 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $2.86 $8.09 $10.64 65
Lynch FV $1.64 $2.35 $3.05 61
PEG = 1.0 $1.64 $2.35 $3.05 57
EPV $9.83 $11.35 $12.66 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.35 $2.68 $4.06 67
DDM Multi-Stage $1.35 $2.10 $2.83 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $8.84 $11.79 $14.74 63
P/S Multiple $5.37 $7.16 $8.95 58
P/B Multiple $5.37 $7.16 $8.95 55
EV/EBIT $26.29 $34.98 $43.67 66
EV/EBITDA $34.59 $46.04 $57.49 67
EV/Revenue $13.41 $19.06 $24.70 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.82 $7.79 $11.63 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $22.31 $31.66 $44.27 79
Rev-Margin DCF $16.08 $23.76 $32.45 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $8.45 $8.27 $7.14 76
ROIC Compounder $9.83 $11.35 $13.54 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $6.91 $9.88 $12.84 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 62/100

Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 35
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 74
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 68
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 76
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 79
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 63
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.3%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 5%

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.1% a year for the price and +20.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+26.7%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+26.7%
Projected 2028 (sales)+23.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+20.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+17.5%

PENG screens 357% overvalued. Compare with International Business Machines Corporation →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Information Technology Services · 490 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 62 · Above median
Fair Value upside −78% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 48% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.74× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Information Technology Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 38.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B 4.92× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 1.95× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 29.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 16.8× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 44
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 31
PAST (return on equity)65 · sector 36
HEALTH (low debt)63 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)5 · sector 43

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Information Technology Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
International Business Machines Corporation IBM $231.38 $188.22 −19%
Accenture plc ACN $183.72 $305.06 +66%
Tata Consultancy Services Limited TCS ₹2,090 ₹2,993 +43%
Infosys Limited INFY ₹1,021 ₹1,690 +66%
HCL Technologies Limited HCLTECH ₹1,257 ₹1,926 +53%
Fidelity National Information Services, Inc FIS $34.96 $32.47 −7%
Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation CTSH $58.68 $132.01 +125%
Wipro Limited WIPRO ₹164.90 ₹287.90 +75%
Capgemini SE CAP €106.30 €223.90 +111%
CDW Corporation CDW $147.43 $162.00 +10%

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$11.79 −357%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Penguin Solutions, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PENG

Frequently asked questions

Is Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.79 versus a price of $53.88, about −78% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PENG?
Our model-based fair value for Penguin Solutions, Inc. is $11.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $53.88.
What is the quality score of PENG?
Penguin Solutions, Inc. has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.79 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.84, optimistic scenario $14.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Penguin Solutions, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.79, about −78% upside versus a price of $53.88 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.84, optimistic scenario $14.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
Penguin Solutions, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Penguin Solutions, Inc. pay a dividend?
Penguin Solutions, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.25% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Penguin Solutions, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +23.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PENG use?
Our models discount Penguin Solutions, Inc. at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 2.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Penguin Solutions, Inc. that is +23.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Penguin Solutions, Inc. grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +23.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Penguin Solutions, Inc. (+23.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.42 %: that much free cash flow Penguin Solutions, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Penguin Solutions, Inc. it is $11.79 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $53.88. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Penguin Solutions, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PENG trades above its calculated fair value: price $53.88, fair value $11.79, a gap of about −78% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PENG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($53.88); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.79). For Penguin Solutions, Inc. the two are $42.09 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Penguin Solutions, Inc. worth?
The market values Penguin Solutions, Inc. at about $2.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $53.88; our models calculate a fair value of $11.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PENG?
Our models span a range for Penguin Solutions, Inc.: cautious scenario $8.84, base $11.79, optimistic $14.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $53.88). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PENG?
Penguin Solutions, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.79 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.9, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 16.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Penguin Solutions, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.2%, debt of 0.74 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PENG from its 52-week high?
Penguin Solutions, Inc. trades at $53.88, about 34% below its 52-week high of $81.39 and 232% above the low of $16.24 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Penguin Solutions, Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value International Business Machines Corporation, Accenture plc, Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Penguin Solutions, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $53.88, calculated fair value $11.79 (−78%), Quality Score 62/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PENG calculated?
We run Penguin Solutions, Inc. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.79, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Penguin Solutions, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $53.88. Our model-based fair value is $11.79, about −78% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Penguin Solutions, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Key figures of Penguin Solutions, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
The market capitalisation of Penguin Solutions, Inc. is $2.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Penguin Solutions, Inc. is 0.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
Earnings per share at Penguin Solutions, Inc. are $1.39 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
The dividend yield of Penguin Solutions, Inc. is 0.3% (payout 9.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
The net margin of Penguin Solutions, Inc. is 1.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Penguin Solutions, Inc. is 16.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Penguin Solutions, Inc. is 1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
The operating margin of Penguin Solutions, Inc. is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
Revenue at Penguin Solutions, Inc. is growing +47.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG)?
Earnings per share at Penguin Solutions, Inc. are growing +544% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Penguin Solutions, Inc. (PENG) carry?
The net debt of Penguin Solutions, Inc. is $279M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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