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Data-driven stock valuation

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A (PETR3) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Petróleo Brasileiro S.A is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Energy · BR · Market cap R$570B (≈ $111B) · ISIN BRPETRACNOR9

At a glance

PB Petróleo Brasileiro S.A PETR3 · SA
PriceR$52.01
Fair ValueR$78.52
Upside+51.0%
Quality54/100

A solid business, trading 34% below our fair value of R$78.52.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A is R$78.52 per share against a price of R$52.01, so the fair value sits 51% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +56.1 %/yr)
Highly profitable · 21.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
·5.75% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Wide moat 70/100
!The models disagree: range R$52.13 to R$232.12
!Weak on future: 2 out of 100
Evidence: High Range R$52.13 to R$232.12

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price +10.3% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (R$52.13 to R$232.12). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

R$54.32 R$7.68 Fair Value R$78.52 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R$7.68 – R$54.32 · fair‑value band R$52.13 – R$232.12 · the R$52.01 price screens below the R$78.52 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A (PETR3) currently trades at R$52.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$78.52, implying the stock looks roughly 33.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R$270.98 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the R$52.01 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$21.61, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A generated revenue of R$498B at a net margin of 21.6%. Revenue grew 0.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.6%. Net debt stands at R$348B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Scenario range: R$52.13 (bear) to R$232.12 (bull), the price of R$52.01 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 79% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at 51%, PETR3 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$3.52 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF R$127.76 R$205.47 R$459.57 73
EPV R$80.31 R$94.33 R$106.79 72
Growth DCF R$120.47 R$232.26 R$467.90 72
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF R$127.76 R$205.47 R$459.57 73
Owner Earnings R$111.60 R$260.32 R$586.49 69
5Y Revenue Exit R$60.88 R$94.26 R$163.25 70
5Y EBITDA Exit R$95.20 R$163.69 R$297.85 71
5Y P/E Exit R$103.33 R$224.39 R$388.45 67
10Y Revenue Exit R$79.20 R$148.68 R$185.17 66
10Y EBITDA Exit R$106.36 R$224.33 R$426.25 64
10Y P/E Exit R$112.43 R$242.26 R$453.63 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd R$58.08 R$405.04 R$568.41 60
Lynch FV R$175.12 R$250.17 R$325.22 58
PEG = 1.0 R$175.12 R$250.17 R$325.22 55
EPV R$80.31 R$94.33 R$106.79 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R$33.72 R$73.62 R$123.88 63
DDM Multi-Stage R$33.72 R$60.31 R$76.73 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple R$89.68 R$119.58 R$149.47 61
P/S Multiple R$34.73 R$46.31 R$57.88 56
P/B Multiple R$43.53 R$58.04 R$72.56 53
EV/EBIT R$83.71 R$111.33 R$138.94 65
EV/EBITDA R$80.03 R$106.41 R$132.80 66
EV/Revenue R$33.29 R$47.18 R$61.07 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R$16.12 R$21.61 R$32.25 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF R$120.47 R$232.26 R$467.90 72
Rev-Margin DCF R$63.72 R$107.90 R$195.39 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income R$59.63 R$78.24 R$448.66 63
ROIC Compounder R$109.51 R$173.69 R$232.58 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E R$189.69 R$270.98 R$352.28 66

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (R$270.98) versus Asset-Based (R$21.61). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 5.4 as of Jul 13, 2026
P/S ratio 1.20 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) R$8.13 price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.4
Dividend yield 5.8% payout 36.8%
Net margin 22.1% FY2025
Return on equity 25.6% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 39.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 32.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) R$498B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +0.4% 3y avg −9.3%
EPS growth (YoY) −7.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow R$91.6B FY2025
Net debt R$348B FY2025 · ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81

Profitability 60
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 71
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 95
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies.

Full company description

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras explores, produces, and sells oil and gas in Brazil, China, the United States, the Americas, Asia, Europe, Singapore, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation & Marketing; and Gas & Low Carbon Energies. The Exploration and Production segment explores, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas primarily for supplies to the domestic refineries. Its Refining, Transportation and Marketing segment engages in the refining, logistics, transport, acquisition, and export of crude oil; trading of oil products; and production of fertilizers, as well as holding interests in petrochemical companies. The Gas and Low Carbon Energies segment is involved in the logistic and trading of natural gas and electricity; transportation and trading of liquefied natural gas; generation of electricity through thermoelectric power plants; renewable energy business; low carbon business; and natural gas processing business, as well as production of biodiesel and its co-products. It also engages in prospecting, drilling, refining, processing, trading, and transporting crude oil from producing onshore and offshore oil fields, and shale or other rocks, as well as oil products, natural gas, and other liquid hydrocarbons. In addition, the company engages in research, development, production, transportation, distribution, and trading of energy. Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras was incorporated in 1953 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A reported revenue of $497B in FY2025 versus $84.0B in FY2021, a compound +56.0%/yr. Reported net income was $110B in FY2025, compounding +53.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
R$497B
Latest YoY
−12.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−9.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+56.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (26Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+14.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, EBIT basis) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
≈ +52.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+47.1%
Dividend yield5.8%
Operating margin (EBIT) Operating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27.3% (2019) → 28.6% (2025) · rising
Worst earnings drop176% (2015) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in BRL
⚠ Final year 2025 sits 137% above trend (one-off), rate on operating basis
Revenue +56.0%/yr
FY21 $84.0B
FY22 $666B
FY23 $102B
FY24 $565B
FY25 $497B
Net income +53.4%/yr
FY21 $19.9B
FY22 $196B
FY23 $24.9B
FY24 $46.6B
FY25 $110B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Petróleo Brasileiro S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PETR3

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Integrated · 53 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −41% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 26% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 32% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 5.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.06× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Integrated median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 5.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.37× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 1.14× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1.2× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 2.7× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 4.27× · Priciest 25%

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Petróleo Brasileiro S.A deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-3.3 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+56.1 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+1.5 %
FCF yield on price13.66 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models12.2 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 5
FUTURE2 · sector 12
PAST100 · sector 43
HEALTH97 · sector 86
DIVIDEND100 · sector 75

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Integrated stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM $159.47 $88.98 −44%
Chevron Corporation CVX $208.60 $90.66 −57%
PetroChina Company 601857 ¥11.17 ¥15.47 +38%
Shell plc SHELL €40.28 €39.46 −2%
TotalEnergies SE TOTB €75.55 €69.02 −9%
China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation 600028 ¥5.52 ¥4.59 −17%
Equinor ASA EQNR kr 395.90 kr 338.01 −15%
Suncor Energy Inc SU C$94.21 C$59.11 −37%
Eni S.p.A E $55.12 $32.53 −41%
Imperial Oil Limited IMO $130.51 $94.61 −28%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Petróleo Brasileiro S.A (PETR3) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$78.52 versus a price of R$52.01, about +51% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of PETR3?
Our model-based fair value for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A is R$78.52 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$52.01.
What is the quality score of PETR3?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Petróleo Brasileiro S.A (PETR3)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$78.52 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$52.13, optimistic scenario R$232.12. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Petróleo Brasileiro S.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$78.52, about +51% upside versus a price of R$52.01 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R$52.13, optimistic scenario R$232.12. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A (PETR3)?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$498B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PETR3?
The net profit margin of Petróleo Brasileiro S.A is about 21.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 21.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Petróleo Brasileiro S.A pay a dividend?
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.75% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Petróleo Brasileiro S.A (PETR3)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Petróleo Brasileiro S.A would have to grow free cash flow by -3.3 % per year for ten years (discount rate 12.2 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +56.1 % per year. As of Aug 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PETR3 use?
Our models discount Petróleo Brasileiro S.A at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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