Polynovo Ltd (PNV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Polynovo Ltd stock A$0.34, price A$0.89, that is 61.6% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.8150 – A$2.72 · fair‑value band A$0.2200 – A$0.5100 · the A$0.8850 price screens above the A$0.3400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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PolyNovo Limited designs, manufactures, and sells biodegradable medical devices in Australia, New Zealand, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Singapore, India, and Hong Kong.
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The company offers NovoSorb Biodegradable Temporising Matrix, a dermal matrix for the regeneration of the dermis when lost through extensive surgery, trauma, or burn.
It is also developing hernia devices for hernia repair and solution for ventral hernia and complex abdominal wall reconstruction; Beta Cell implant, a novel intracutaneous ectopic pancreas to treat type 1 diabetes; NovoSorb MTX for single stage grafting in burns, chronic, and surgical wounds; and plastics and reconstructive device products.
The company was formerly known as Calzada Limited and changed its name to PolyNovo Limited in November 2014. PolyNovo Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Port Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Polynovo Ltd (PNV) currently trades at A$0.8850, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.3400, 62% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.4400 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$0.8850 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0500, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.2200 (bear) to A$0.5100 (bull), the price of A$0.8850 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Polynovo Ltd reported revenue of A$144M in FY2026 versus A$41.4M in FY2022, a compound +36.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$7.3M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$618M (≈ $420M) Small · P/E ratio 84.3 · P/S ratio 4.12 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0105 · Net margin 4.9% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 14.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 9% fair-value upside, at −62%, PNV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.2200Fair Value A$0.3400BullA$0.5100
Price A$0.8850 · Downside -61.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0037 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +45.9% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+11.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−24% → 7%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.9% a year for the price and +9.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 404 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−61.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.4% · Above median
Return on assets5.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)4.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Polynovo Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PNV
Frequently asked questions
Is Polynovo Ltd (PNV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.3400 versus a price of A$0.8850, about 62% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PNV?
Our model-based fair value for Polynovo Ltd is A$0.3400 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.8850.
What is the quality score of PNV?
Polynovo Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.3400 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.2200, optimistic scenario A$0.5100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Polynovo Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.3400, about 62% lower versus a price of A$0.8850 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.2200, optimistic scenario A$0.5100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Polynovo Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$150M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Polynovo Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +37.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +37.6 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PNV use?
Our models discount Polynovo Ltd at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.35, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Polynovo Ltd that is +37.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Polynovo Ltd (PNV) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Polynovo Ltd grew +37.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +37.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Polynovo Ltd (PNV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Polynovo Ltd (+37.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.53 %: that much free cash flow Polynovo Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Polynovo Ltd it is A$0.3400 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$0.8850. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Polynovo Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, PNV trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.8850, fair value A$0.3400, a gap of about −62% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PNV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.8850); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.3400). For Polynovo Ltd the two are A$0.5450 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Polynovo Ltd worth?
The market values Polynovo Ltd at about A$618M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$0.8850; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.3400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PNV?
Our models span a range for Polynovo Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.2200, base A$0.3400, optimistic A$0.5100 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$0.8850). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PNV?
Polynovo Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 84.3 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.3400 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 6.8, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 37.8.
What is the PEG ratio of PNV?
The PEG ratio of Polynovo Ltd is 1.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Polynovo Ltd (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PNV from its 52-week high?
Polynovo Ltd trades at A$0.8850, about 31% below its 52-week high of A$1.29 and 9% above the low of A$0.8150 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.3400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Polynovo Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Polynovo Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$0.8850, calculated fair value A$0.3400 (−62%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PNV calculated?
We run Polynovo Ltd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$0.3400 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Polynovo Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was A$0.8850. Our model-based fair value is A$0.3400, about 62% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Polynovo Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.5100). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.2200 to A$0.5100) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Polynovo Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The market capitalisation of Polynovo Ltd is A$618M (≈ $420M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Polynovo Ltd is 4.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Earnings per share at Polynovo Ltd are A$0.0105 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 84.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The net margin of Polynovo Ltd is 4.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Polynovo Ltd is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Polynovo Ltd is 1.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The operating margin of Polynovo Ltd is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Revenue at Polynovo Ltd is growing +15.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +30.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Earnings per share at Polynovo Ltd are growing −25.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Polynovo Ltd (PNV) hold?
Polynovo Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$17.8M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026