Polynovo Ltd (PNV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Polynovo Ltd A$0.32, price A$0.93, upside -65.6%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.8450 – A$2.72 · fair‑value band A$0.2400 – A$0.4000 · the A$0.9300 price screens above the A$0.3200 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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PolyNovo Limited designs, manufactures, and sells biodegradable medical devices in Australia, New Zealand, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Singapore, India, and Hong Kong. The company offers NovoSorb Biodegradable Temporising Matrix, a dermal matrix for the regeneration of the dermis when lost through extensive surgery, trauma, or burn.
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PolyNovo Limited designs, manufactures, and sells biodegradable medical devices in Australia, New Zealand, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Singapore, India, and Hong Kong. The company offers NovoSorb Biodegradable Temporising Matrix, a dermal matrix for the regeneration of the dermis when lost through extensive surgery, trauma, or burn. It is also developing hernia devices for hernia repair and solution for ventral hernia and complex abdominal wall reconstruction; Beta Cell implant, a novel intracutaneous ectopic pancreas to treat type 1 diabetes; NovoSorb MTX for single stage grafting in burns, chronic, and surgical wounds; and plastics and reconstructive device products. The company was formerly known as Calzada Limited and changed its name to PolyNovo Limited in November 2014. PolyNovo Limited was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Port Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Polynovo Ltd (PNV) currently trades at A$0.9300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.3200, implying the stock looks roughly 190.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$0.8900 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the A$0.9300 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.0800, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.2400 (bear) to A$0.4000 (bull), the price of A$0.9300 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Polynovo Ltd reported revenue of A$127M in FY2025 versus A$29.2M in FY2021, a compound +44.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$13.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap A$715M (≈ $502M) · P/E ratio 93.0 · P/S ratio 9.66 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0100 · Net margin 10.4% · Return on equity 12.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −4.2% · Operating margin 3.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at −66%, PNV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (A$0.0800 to A$0.9100). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear A$0.2400Fair Value A$0.3200Bull A$0.4000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+45.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.7%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−18.7% (2020) → 3.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Devices · 364 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−65.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets2.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)7.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)3.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth18.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)93.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B8.59× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)5.13× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.53× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 10
FUTURE (revenue growth)91· sector 31
PAST (return on equity)50· sector 8
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 38
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Polynovo Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PNV
Frequently asked questions
Is Polynovo Ltd (PNV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.3200 versus a price of A$0.9300, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PNV?
Our model-based fair value for Polynovo Ltd is A$0.3200 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.9300.
What is the quality score of PNV?
Polynovo Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.3200 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.2400, optimistic scenario A$0.4000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Polynovo Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.3200, about −66% upside versus a price of A$0.9300 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.2400, optimistic scenario A$0.4000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Polynovo Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$139M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Polynovo Ltd it is A$0.3200 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$0.9300. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Polynovo Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, PNV trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.9300, fair value A$0.3200, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PNV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.9300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.3200). For Polynovo Ltd the two are A$0.6100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Polynovo Ltd worth?
The market values Polynovo Ltd at about A$715M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$0.9300; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.3200 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PNV?
Our models span a range for Polynovo Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.2400, base A$0.3200, optimistic A$0.4000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$0.9300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PNV?
Polynovo Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 93.0 (as of Sep 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$0.3200 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 8.6, P/S 5.1.
What is the PEG ratio of PNV?
The PEG ratio of Polynovo Ltd is 1.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Polynovo Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity 12.5%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PNV from its 52-week high?
Polynovo Ltd trades at A$0.9300, about 40% below its 52-week high of A$1.54 and 10% above the low of A$0.8450 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.3200 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Polynovo Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Abbott Laboratories,, Medtronic plc, Stryker Corporation, Boston Scientific Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Polynovo Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$0.9300, calculated fair value A$0.3200 (−66%), Quality Score 54/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PNV calculated?
We run Polynovo Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.3200, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Polynovo Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was A$0.9300. Our model-based fair value is A$0.3200, about −66% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Polynovo Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.4000). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Polynovo Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The market capitalisation of Polynovo Ltd is A$715M (≈ $502M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Polynovo Ltd is 9.66 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Earnings per share at Polynovo Ltd are A$0.0100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 93.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The net margin of Polynovo Ltd is 10.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Polynovo Ltd is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Polynovo Ltd is −4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
The operating margin of Polynovo Ltd is 3.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Polynovo Ltd (PNV)?
Revenue at Polynovo Ltd is growing +18.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +45.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Polynovo Ltd (PNV) generate?
The free cash flow of Polynovo Ltd is −A$10.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Polynovo Ltd (PNV) hold?
Polynovo Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$16.4M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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