Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc stock $11.88, price $140, upside -91.5%, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.06 – $158.62 · fair‑value band $7.93 – $13.29 · the $139.53 price screens above the $11.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. operates as a discovery and development company in the United States.
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It develops Icotyde, a first-in-class investigational targeted oral peptide for the treatment of adults and pediatric patients 12 years of age and older with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis; and Rusfertide, a first-in-class investigational injectable mimetic of the natural hormone hepcidin in Phase 3 development for the treatment of the rare blood disorder polycythemia vera.
The company is also developing PN-881, a potential best-in-class oral peptide IL-17 antagonist, for the treatment of immune-mediated skin diseases in Phase 1 clinical trials; PN-477 and PN-458, which are development candidates for the treatment of obesity; PN-8047, an orally administered hepcidin functional mimetic small molecule; L-4R alpha antagonist for the treatment of atopic dermatitis and moderate-to-severe asthma; and amylinR-based oral and subcutaneous mono- and poly-agonists for the treatment of obesity.
Protagonist Therapeutics, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Newark, California.
Stock analysis
Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX) currently trades at $139.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.88, 91.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $21.83 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $139.53 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $3.96, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $7.93 (bear) to $13.29 (bull), the price of $139.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Protagonist Therapeutics Inc reported revenue of $46.0M in FY2025 versus $27.4M in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$130M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $9.9B Mid · P/E ratio 135.5 · P/S ratio 34.8 · EPS (TTM) $1.03 · Net margin 29.4% · Return on equity 11.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −21.0% · Operating margin 74.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 90% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −91%, PTGX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$7.93Fair Value $11.88Bull$13.29
Price $139.53 · Upside -91.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.8353 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$14.18$19.86$36.8275
Growth DCF$13.40$21.83$35.0674
5Y Revenue Exit$6.91$8.73$12.3871
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$14.18$19.86$36.8275
5Y Revenue Exit$6.91$8.73$12.3871
10Y Revenue Exit$9.33$13.98$15.6466
Multiples
EV/Revenue$3.32$3.96$4.6054
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$5.33$8.07$10.0954
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$13.40$21.83$35.0674
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−89.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−225.4% (2020) → −343.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+56.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +53.0% a year for the price.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Royalty arrangements deliver substantial near-term cash flows after the recent approval as the main strength, yet the early-stage biotech profile with sustained net losses and little evidence of a durable moat forms the central weakness.
Main risk: Capped direct participation in any blockbuster potential under the royalty model would limit upside from successful product launches in its biotechnology business.
Protagonist has moved its lead asset to a royalty and milestone arrangement after stepping back from US co-commercialization rights. Substantial near-term cash flows follow from the recent approval, yet the model caps direct participation in any blockbuster potential. Does the royalty stream ultimately deliver more stable returns than a fully integrated approach would have?
Compare Protagonist Therapeutics Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 598 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score39 · Below median
Fair Value upside−91.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets−19.4% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)29.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)74.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)37.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.02× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)135.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B15.95× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)34.77× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow174.8× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)44· sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 23
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.88 versus a price of $139.53, about −91% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PTGX?
Our model-based fair value for Protagonist Therapeutics Inc is $11.88 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $139.53.
What is the quality score of PTGX?
Protagonist Therapeutics Inc has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.88 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.93, optimistic scenario $13.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Protagonist Therapeutics Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.88, about −91% upside versus a price of $139.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.93, optimistic scenario $13.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Protagonist Therapeutics Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +56.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.0 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PTGX use?
Our models discount Protagonist Therapeutics Inc at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.52, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Protagonist Therapeutics Inc that is +56.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Protagonist Therapeutics Inc grew +10.0 % a year. The price currently implies +56.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (+56.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.57 %: that much free cash flow Protagonist Therapeutics Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Protagonist Therapeutics Inc it is $11.88 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $139.53. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Protagonist Therapeutics Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, PTGX trades above its calculated fair value: price $139.53, fair value $11.88, a gap of about −91% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PTGX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($139.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.88). For Protagonist Therapeutics Inc the two are $127.65 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Protagonist Therapeutics Inc worth?
The market values Protagonist Therapeutics Inc at about $9.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $139.53; our models calculate a fair value of $11.88 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PTGX?
Our models span a range for Protagonist Therapeutics Inc: cautious scenario $7.93, base $11.88, optimistic $13.29 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $139.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PTGX?
Protagonist Therapeutics Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 135.5 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $11.88 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 16.0, P/S 34.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 11.0%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PTGX from its 52-week high?
Protagonist Therapeutics Inc trades at $139.53, about 12% below its 52-week high of $158.62 and 90% above the low of $73.50 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.88 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Protagonist Therapeutics Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, argenx SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Protagonist Therapeutics Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $139.53, calculated fair value $11.88 (−91%), Quality Score 39/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PTGX calculated?
We run Protagonist Therapeutics Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.88, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Protagonist Therapeutics Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $139.53. Our model-based fair value is $11.88, about −91% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Protagonist Therapeutics Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
The market capitalisation of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc is $9.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc is 34.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
Earnings per share at Protagonist Therapeutics Inc are $1.03 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 135.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
The net margin of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc is 29.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc is 11.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc is −21.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
The operating margin of Protagonist Therapeutics Inc is 74.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
Revenue at Protagonist Therapeutics Inc is growing +37.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +20.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX)?
Earnings per share at Protagonist Therapeutics Inc are growing +351% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Protagonist Therapeutics Inc (PTGX) hold?
Protagonist Therapeutics Inc holds more cash than debt, $118M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Oct 22, 2026