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Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Rivco Australia Ltd A$2.76, price A$1.20, upside +130.0%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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AU · ISIN AU0000426512

RA Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Rivco Australia Ltd

RIV · AU

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value A$2.76 · Strongly undervalued (+130%)
!Quality 47/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +37.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 42.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt
·6.17% dividend yield
!Moderate moat 50/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$1.54 A$1.07 Fair Value A$2.76 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$1.07 – A$1.54 · fair‑value band A$2.07 – A$3.45 · the A$1.20 price screens below the A$2.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Rivco Australia Ltd provides water supply solutions to Australian irrigators and farmers. The company operates through the Permanent Water and Temporary Water segments. It acquires and manages a portfolio of water entitlements; and offers temporary water allocations.

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Rivco Australia Ltd provides water supply solutions to Australian irrigators and farmers. The company operates through the Permanent Water and Temporary Water segments. It acquires and manages a portfolio of water entitlements; and offers temporary water allocations. The company was formerly known as Duxton Water Limited and changed its name to Rivco Australia Ltd in October 2025. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Unley, Australia.

Stock analysis

Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV) currently trades at A$1.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.76, implying the stock looks roughly 56.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of A$5.15 per share, and 7 of the 15 models we run sit above the A$1.20 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$0.5900, and 8 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: A$2.07 (bear) to A$3.45 (bull), the price of A$1.20 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality).

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Rivco Australia Ltd reported revenue of A$52.1M in FY2025 versus A$20.0M in FY2022, a compound +37.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$21.9M in FY2025, compounding +29.8%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap A$230M (≈ $162M) · P/S ratio 4.42 · Dividend yield 6.2% · Net margin 42.0% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9% · Operating margin −15.1% · Revenue (TTM) A$52.1M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

Fair Value models

Bear A$2.07 Fair Value A$2.76 Bull A$3.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV A$0.9700 A$1.10 A$1.21 71
Residual Income A$0.8800 A$0.9500 A$1.06 71
ROIC Compounder A$0.9700 A$1.12 A$1.37 67
All 15 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd A$0.7800 A$5.41 A$7.60 59
Lynch FV A$2.80 A$4.00 A$5.19 57
PEG = 1.0 A$2.80 A$4.00 A$5.19 53
EPV A$0.9700 A$1.10 A$1.21 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM A$0.3700 A$0.6200 A$0.8000 64
DDM Multi-Stage A$0.3700 A$0.5900 A$0.6600 63
Multiples
P/E Multiple A$1.71 A$2.28 A$2.85 63
P/S Multiple A$0.5100 A$0.6800 A$0.8500 58
P/B Multiple A$1.46 A$1.94 A$2.43 55
EV/EBIT A$2.48 A$3.33 A$4.19 66
EV/Revenue A$0.3700 A$0.5700 A$0.7800 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.5500 A$0.7300 A$1.09 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income A$0.8800 A$0.9500 A$1.06 71
ROIC Compounder A$0.9700 A$1.12 A$1.37 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E A$3.60 A$5.15 A$6.69 63

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 90
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 62
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 45
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 26
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 12
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 33
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+108.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+36.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+30.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.2%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.66% → 70%
2025 sits 131% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.

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Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)43 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 0
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 0

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Rivco Australia Ltd · Fair Value
A$2.76 +57%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rivco Australia Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RIV

Frequently asked questions

Is Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$2.76 versus a price of A$1.20, about +130% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RIV?
Our model-based fair value for Rivco Australia Ltd is A$2.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.20.
What is the quality score of RIV?
Rivco Australia Ltd has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$2.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.07, optimistic scenario A$3.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rivco Australia Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$2.76, about +130% upside versus a price of A$1.20 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$2.07, optimistic scenario A$3.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
Rivco Australia Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$52.1M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Rivco Australia Ltd pay a dividend?
Rivco Australia Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rivco Australia Ltd it is A$2.76 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of A$1.20. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rivco Australia Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, RIV trades below its calculated fair value: price A$1.20, fair value A$2.76, a gap of about +130% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RIV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$2.76). For Rivco Australia Ltd the two are A$1.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rivco Australia Ltd worth?
The market values Rivco Australia Ltd at about A$230M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is A$1.20; our models calculate a fair value of A$2.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RIV?
Our models span a range for Rivco Australia Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.07, base A$2.76, optimistic A$3.45 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price A$1.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is RIV from its 52-week high?
Rivco Australia Ltd trades at A$1.20, about 22% below its 52-week high of A$1.54 and 3% above the low of A$1.17 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$2.76 is for.
Is Rivco Australia Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price A$1.20, calculated fair value A$2.76 (+130%), Quality Score 47/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RIV calculated?
We run Rivco Australia Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$2.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Rivco Australia Ltd currently trades 130 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$1.20. Our model-based fair value is A$2.76, about +130% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rivco Australia Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$2.07). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of Rivco Australia Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The market capitalisation of Rivco Australia Ltd is A$230M (≈ $162M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rivco Australia Ltd is 4.42 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The dividend yield of Rivco Australia Ltd is 6.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The net margin of Rivco Australia Ltd is 42.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rivco Australia Ltd is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rivco Australia Ltd is 7.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
The operating margin of Rivco Australia Ltd is −15.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
Revenue at Rivco Australia Ltd is growing +79.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV)?
Earnings per share at Rivco Australia Ltd are growing +191% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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