Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV) Fair Value & Analysis
AU · Market cap A$230M
Fair value as of: Jul 10, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 31 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 10, 2026, revised from A$2.32 to A$2.35 (+1.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price −1.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 66% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$1.76). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (47/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.04 – A$1.54 · fair‑value band A$1.76 – A$2.93 · the A$1.42 price screens below the A$2.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 10, 2026.
Analysis
Rivco Australia Ltd (RIV) currently trades at A$1.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.35, implying the stock looks roughly 66.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality). Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Rivco Australia Ltd generated revenue of A$52.1M at a net margin of 42.1%. Revenue grew 79.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.8%. Fundamentals as of Jul 10, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.76 (bear case) to A$2.93 (bull case); at A$1.42, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (A$6.07) versus Dividend Discount (A$0.6900). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 10, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Rivco Australia Ltd provides water supply solutions to Australian irrigators and farmers. The company operates through the Permanent Water and Temporary Water segments. It acquires and manages a portfolio of water entitlements; and offers temporary water allocations.
Full company description
Rivco Australia Ltd provides water supply solutions to Australian irrigators and farmers. The company operates through the Permanent Water and Temporary Water segments. It acquires and manages a portfolio of water entitlements; and offers temporary water allocations. The company was formerly known as Duxton Water Limited and changed its name to Rivco Australia Ltd in October 2025. The company was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Unley, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Rivco Australia Ltd reported revenue of A$52.1M in FY2025 versus A$20.0M in FY2022, a compound +37.6%/yr. Reported net income was A$21.9M in FY2025, compounding +29.8%/yr from FY2022.
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Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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